16th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro currently consolidating between the Weekly levels during the first 2-days this week.

However, after 2-days of not moving upwards, but closing below the monthly 50% level @ 1.3516, there is now the potential for the Euro to continue down towards the Quarterly level @ 1.3180.

The Trend guide is going to be the brown filter at 11am in the daily range.

The white channel highs are seen as resistance @ 1.3533

and the first sign of the euro going lower is a break of the channel lows and continuing down into Wednesday's lows :- random support.

my view is that the Euro is going lower, simply because of the first 2-days trading below monthly 50% level.

If I'm wrong, then the Euro will be trading above 1.3527 (Weekly level) and above daily channel highs (resistance)

AUD Weekly and Daily range

We have a similar pattern as last week, the AUD can't remain above the 85 pip highs, and is now rotating down towards .9921 and Wednesday's lows.

As noted in Yesterday's report... it next leg upwards was based on 2nd support, and 2nd support failed to hold

Based on the daily range:- my view is that the AUD will continue down, and follow the daily range

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Monday failed to remain above 2nd support (from 11pm), after the first 12 hour pattern pushed upwards.

My view was that the first 2 days will try and move upwards, and that might still be the case after the Weekly lows provided support on Monday....

However, the Euro is now trading below the monthly 50% level @ 1.3516, which confirms more weakness.

In conclusion:- the trend guide is simply based on the 11am level @ 1.3492.

no probability in which direction Tuesday will go

AUD Weekly and Daily range.

As per Weekly report, my view was that the AUD will swing back towards the Weekly highs, however Monday's price action didn't provide the follow through during the 2nd 12 hour pattern (above 1.0051)

And once again we find the AUD trading around the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

Tuesday:- the brown filter and 1.0016 could once again provide another push upwards...

but we should keep in mind that there might not be further gains in the AUD until price tests the support channels intra-day. (blue)

That might not happen until the 2nd 12 hours (2nd support).

If AUD fails to make any gains on Tuesday, and we have 2 choppy trading days around the Weekly 50% level, then there could be further weakness towards the February 50% level @ 9912.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report, we have monthly support @ 1.3516 and also the Friday 5-day low pattern, which often suggests that the start of the week will move upwards during the first 2-days.

Trend guide using the Weekly level @ 1.3527.

Based on the levels in the daily range, it might not move up until the 2nd 12-hour pattern (above 1.3527) during the US timezone.

at this stage price could continue down towards the Weekly lows. (blue channels)

As per Weekly report:- don't trade longs below the Weekly level and Monday's lows

AUD Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report I'm looking for the trend to continue upwards, as long as it is above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

target is the Weekly highs over the next 2-days.

This is based on the monthly 50% level support and Friday's low pattern @ .9974/76

Trend guide @1.0011 at 11am

don't trade longs below support @ .9977

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th FEB 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly Report

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

USD Index is currently supported above the 1st Quarterly level (Yellow), which isn't allowing the US Dollar to drop.

Next Week

There is a 5-day high pattern on Friday which suggests next week will move downward over the first 2-days.

if there is sustained weakness then the USD index downside target is the February lows.

If that occurs the Euro will continue to rise.

if the USD moves down 2-days but finds support and the Weekly 50% level and once again begins to trade above 78.40..

then there is the possibility that the USD dollar could rise later in the week.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As noted in Friday's report...

Expectation that the 2nd 12 hour pattern could provide Friday low support, which it did.

Therefore next week my view is that the Euro will try and rise upwards over the first 2-days, with a target being the weekly highs.

however, if the first 2-days struggle to rise higher than the Weekly 50% level @ 1.36570....

Then traders need to look for patterns from Wednesday onwards, that may result in the euro breaking the Weekly lows, and moving back down into the Quarterly 50% level (Yellow) @ 1.3180 

AUD Monthly and Weekly

higher timeframe support and Friday 5-day low pattern...

suggests next week will begin with a 2-day rise...

target the Weekly highs... as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0016

11th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Whilst the euro remains above 1.3516 the trend bias is to continue upwards..(February 50%)

However, in the Weekly timeframe we have seen the past 5-days consolidate after an early rise upwards this week.

If the Euro is going to continue higher, then Friday's daily lows need to hold support.

This will help validate support and we begin next week with a  2-day rise

Euro Weekly and Daily range.

Today:- during the first 12 hours my view is that the market will likely remain below the trend guide, which is seen as resistance, and once again push down into the lows on Friday.

any weakness down into Friday's lows @ 1.3497 could occur in the 2nd 12 hour period.

it's those lows that are going to determine whether the Euro continues higher next week.

AUD monthly and Weekly

My view was for the AUD to continue upwards this week, whilst above 1.0117...

 but the price action has changed in the short-term & reversed back down towards the February 50% level, which is a similar pattern as last December, and also a similar pattern as the Euro earlier this week.

If the trend is going to move upwards, then these 50% levels (Weekly also) need to hold...

 and we then validate support by next week's open

AUD Weekly and daily range

Yesterday had an early rise # 1 ...

But then it failed, confirmed with a Thursday low breakout #2

Expectation is that price is heading down into Friday's lows @ 9972  #3

These lows also match the Monthly and Weekly 50% levels @ .9974/76

Therefore if these hold support then there is the expectation that next week will begin with a 2-day rise... that can see further gains later in the month towards the highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro has continued into the Weekly level @ 1.3748 by Thursday.

As per Weekly report, the Euro can continue towards the Weekly highs once again (from the February 50% level)...

however, the Weekly level can act as resistance during the first 12 hour period and see price back down into trailing support levels.

Note:- Trend guide is used, as if the Euro is continuing towards Thursday's highs.

This can be based on the 12 hour breakout @ 1.3682 that extends into the next 12 hour highs.

but once again it will depend on the Weekly level.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

Expectation of more upside has failed to materialise, as the price action continues to consolidate around the Weekly level @ 1,0117.

My view hasn't changed.

i'm still expecting the break and extend pattern to continue towards this week's highs by Friday.

Trend guide remains @ 1.0117

Support @ 1.0101

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro has continued to push upwards, but it failed to close above the 5-day 50% level.

Officially it's not a Weekly HOOK pattern, because Tuesday would normally close above both the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level, and then continue up towards higher highs by Friday.

Wednesday is simply defined by the filters and support @ 1.3613 @ 11am

any upside and the target is towards the Weekly level @ 1.3748 by Thursday.

Note:- if Wednesday moves down, then random support around the channel lows @ 1.3548.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range.

AUD still supported, but it can't rise more than 85 pips.

This has resulted in a 2-day consolidating pattern at the start of the week above 1.0117

There is still the expectation that the AUD will follow a break and extend pattern into this week's highs.

ideally from the 5-day 50% level once again.

any minor weakness early on Wednesday, and 2nd support as shown is once again used.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.


The euro is trading between two February 50% levels, as shown in the Weekly report.

 1.3516 (FEB 50%)  is supporting the current price action along with Monday’s lows.

And as shown in the above chart, 1.3623 (FEB 50%) is resisting the trend.

At the moment it’s inclusive which way the euro will go.

Trend guide @ 1.3568 at 11am

If it’s going upwards it will need to break out above the 5-day 50% level @ 1.3650

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.


I was looking for more upside on Monday, but it has consolidated above 1.0117.

Whilst price remains above this level, my view remains that the AUD will continue upwards based on the break and extend pattern from last week’s highs towards this week’s highs (& February highs).

The 5-day 50% level is the trend guide for today @ 1.0129 from 11am.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th FEB 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range.

As per Weekly report, the key levels are based on the February 50% level in the monthly chart @ 1.3514 & and the Weekly level @ 1.3595.

We are filtering the price action using the levels in the 12-hour ranges.

Starting with the brown filter @ 1.3595

My view is that the Euro will try and move upwards, however based on Monday’s level, which matches the Weekly 50% level, the Euro will try and push down towards Monday’s lows.

Note:- Monday’s lows match the Monthly 50% level @ 1.3514...

Therefore the 12 hour pattern needs to find support and then the following 12 hour pattern should provide a set-up for a move upwards...

Otherwise Don’t trade longs below 1.3498. (breakout), which could see more weakness down into the Weekly levels @ 1.34420

AUD Weekly and daily range

Expectation that AUD is continuing upwards, whilst above 1.0117:- Weekly highs then Monthly highs.

However, whilst AUD is currently below the brown filter I would think AUD will push back down into the weekly level, and as far as support @ 1.0101

if above the brown filter, it moves into 12 hour resistance around the highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th FEB 2011, USD, EUR, AUD, Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

Because the USD index is trading below the Yearly 50% level, my view is that next week should continue down from resistance levels (February 50% level)...

Whilst currencies continue higher.

Note:- if the USD Index is above the Weekly 50% level and monthly 50% level, the trend bias is to follow a double Weekly high pattern.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The euro completed a double Weekly high pattern this week, and has reverse back down into the monthly 50% level.

The Weekly timeframe has now moved into February, which aligns with a lower weekly open, and at this stage it is seen as support.

Therefore the weekly 50% level is seen as the trend guide, for a swing back towards the Weekly level @ 1.3780, and then a continuation towards the highs.

Below the monthly 50% level, and it's seen as a push back down (random pattern)

However, I continue to be bullish on the euro, as price is above the Yearly 50% level.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

My view is that the AUD is heading towards the 2011 highs & 1.06

with the medium-term target being the February highs, and then towards the March highs, as part of a 2-month wave pattern upwards during this quarterly cycle.

Next week's level is the trend guide @ 1.0117...

as it continues towards the Weekly highs

Note;- if below, we could see a similar pattern as the euro, and a rotation back down to the February 50% level.