23rd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro didn't reach the Weekly highs, but it looks like it's in the process of moving down and retesting last week's breakout.

However, there is random support in the first 12 hours that could push price back up into the brown filter and channel highs, which is seen as resistance.



AUD Weekly and Daily

As noted in the Weekly report, either the trend was going to continue down, or it's a fake break and the market consolidates within the weekly levels until April.

At this point it is a fake break:- random resistance the Weeky highs.

I would focus on trying to take small range increments of 41 pips
each 12 hour range, which occassionally could lead into 85 pips by the end
of the day until April begins.

Trend guide & support @ 1.0082, but below the brown

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro nearing the Weekly highs, and my view is that price will try and rotate back down and retest last week's breakout.

However, there's no confirming pattern in the 12 hour range, that suggests Tuesday will move down, unless it's below the intra-day support levels.

Based on the current price action, the first 12 hours could see another push upwards

AUD Weekly and Daily range

If the AUD is going to follow my view of moving lower, then it needs to reverse down on Tuesday (below the weekly 50% level).

11am trend guide is the brown filter...

However, there's no pattern in the 12 hour range on Tuesday ( just yet), that suggests there is going to be a daily reversal pattern whilst the trend remains above the white channel highs @ 1.0017

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Breakout of the Weekly and Daily highs on Friday should continue to extend up towards next week's Daily (Monday) and Weekly highs.

Once that occurs we should begin to look for a minor reversal pattern that retest's Friday's breakout and the trailing Weekly level @ 1.4069



AUD Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report, my view is that the AUD is moving lower, however it could also swing back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore Monday's trading is simply based on trading on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th MARCH 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index monthly and Weekly

USD moving into a double monthly low pattern in MARCH....

There is now two possible patterns.....

#1 rotates upwards from next week and back into the April 50% level

#2) USD Index is being sold down from the Yearty 50% level towards the Yearly lows @ 73.80

Therefore March lows can fail, or the next downward leg begins from April


Euro monthly and Weekly

How the USD Index plays out will determine whether the Euro will begin to rotate back towards the April 50% level....

or the trend continues up towards the April highs. (2nd Quater highs)

Currently there's a breakout of the Weekly highs, which should extend up to next week's highs, and this will be seen as resistance.




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD moved above the 5-day 50% level on Friday, and then continued upwards during
the 2nd 12 hour pattern, as price rotates back towards this week's breakout.


Next Week:- Because there's a breakout pattern in the Weekly timeframe, I
would treat AUD as moving back down into the lows.

For that to happen price needs to be trading below .9897

Otherwise, this week's price action could be a fake break, and over the next
2-weeks AUD moves into a consolidation pattern within the Weekly levels until
the start of the 2nd Quarter (April)

18th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro continues to push upwards without providing a high probability set-up on Thursday.

The channel highs broke out during the first 12 hours, and the 2nd 12 hour pattern provided a 41 pip up move.

Today:- as long as it remains above the channel highs, the trend bias is to continue towards Friday's highs, which match the Weekly highs

Those upper levels are seen as random resistance levels on Friday, as the 1st quarterly highs @ 1.4096 could stall the market from rising further, but it would need to close below on Friday and then continue down next week, starting with a 2-day reversal pattern


AUD Weekly and Daily range

My view is that the AUD is moving down towards .9633 matched with the Weekly breakout pattern and next week's lows.

However, Thursday's set-up didn't continue down, instead it remained choppy.

I still have the view that the AUD will continue down, but Friday's set-up might not provide that expectation.

There are two patterns at play on Friday...

#1 ) The AUD moves up into the 5-day 50% level and channel highs & then sells down, breaking 12 hour support and following the larger trend lower.

#2) 12 hour support comes into play early and pushes the AUD back into the 5-day 50% level, which will then decide if it will continue down, or the 2nd 12 hour pattern pushes Friday back towards the Weekly low breakout @ 9985/93

I favour #1 occurring, but I won't be surprised if #2 happens, simply because the March low @ 9796 has been reached, and the AUD is now rotating up towards next week levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro remains choppy at the moment, and better trades in the AUD at this stage.

No probability pattern for Thursday.

However, the channels highs in the daily range are seen as resistance 1.3995/9




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD is currently in a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe.

the AUD has reached the first target @ ...9796

And is likely to continue down into .9633

Trailing resistance @ .9837 until then.

Note:- a break and extend pattern could continue down into next Monday, and as far as the Quarterly level @ .9564

However, it could also swing up from .9633 and retest next week's 50% level, and once again push down into next week's lows.

Therefore once the AUD reaches .9633 and Thursday's lows it becomes a random pattern within the 12 hour ranges

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Yesterday's break of support (9985/93) and my expectation that the AUD would complete the 11pm lows, which matched the March lows @ 9796.

My view is that the AUD will still continue down, and could go as low as the 1st Quarter channel (Yellow).

Trend guide and resistance @ .9955/65



Euro Weekly and Daily range

Remains choppy around the highs...

No probability pattern for Wednesday's trading

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th March 2011, AUD, Daily part 2

AUD monthly and Weekly

We have the same patterns in the AUD as index markets, with a breakout of the 3-week lows @ .9985/93

If it continues with the breakout, the downside is the MARCH lows, and as low as the First quarter channel @ 9564

15th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per weekly report, the Trend bias is to continue upwards in MARCH...

Today's trading is based on whether Tuesday breaks out and continues upwards...

or price reverses back down from the monthly highs, using the brown filter as a trend guide

If the Euro reverses down, then Tuesday's support (random) comes into play @ 1.3924

AUD Weekly and Daily range

My view was that the AUD would continue upwards this week, but Monday failed to remain above the channel highs @ 11am.

Currently price is below the channel highs @ 1.0122 on Tuesday, which has been acting as resistance for a number of weeks.

Today's trend guide is the brown filter, with blue channel lows as random support.

I still have the view that the AUD is trying to rise upwards, but at this stage, there's no probability pattern that suggests Tuesday will be the day.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report, I'm bullish on the euro using the weekly level as a trend guide.

Currently the euro has stalled during Sunday's trading.

There are two patterns that can play out...

#1) rises up from the brown filter towards Monday's highs

#2) Weekly level pushes the Euro back down during the first 12 hours.(random support @ 1.3875

no probability pattern which will play out



AUD Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report I'm Bullish on the AUD, as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level.

Currently being supported, but I would like to see the AUD trading above the white channel after 11am.

Trend guide @ 1.0112

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT