31st Dec 2008 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:30am

Last trading day of the year, but keep in mind that the Weekly closing price on Friday will confirm the levels.

AUD is trying to move UP towards January's 50% level, as it's being attracted towards the Monthly 50% levels.

Wednesday:- I would expect a similar pattern on Wednesday as Tuesday

Range trading between the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level


EURO Weekly and 3-day pattern

I have the same pexectation on the Euro as the AUD, except my view is price is being pushed down towards the January 50% level, which is lower.

Wednesday:- 3-day filter & 5-day 50% level resistance.


GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

In last week's Weekly report I had the view that GBP would be moving lower.

That was simply based on the Weekly timeframe closing below November's lows.

Monday sold down from the Weekly balance point, but also on Tuesday there was a robust set-up for a continuation downward....

Monday breakout and rejection (Thrust) pattern from the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday.

Wednesday:-

There is random support around the Weekly lows, but if price is still trading below the blue filter then the bias is to continue down into Wednesday's lows and follow the monthly timeframe lower toward's January's lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD & Euro 3-day pattern 15:30

The Morning report was written nearly 4 hours before Monday closed and a short-covering rally late pushed prices upwards.

I mentioned that I was looking for a move down into Tuesday's lows, but at this stage that might not occur, especially on the AUD

But still the 3-day filters along with the 3pm tops are valid resistance levels for the next 4 hour period

30th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:55am

Monday's trading has had a 'fake break' of the 3-day highs and looks to be pushing back towards the 5-day 50% level.

On Monday I didn't have a probability pattern.

Tuesday:- I favour the 3-day filter as resistance and a push down towards Tuesday's lows.

There isn't any new trends developing in the currencies as yet, so if trading I would continue to look to take small profits on any trades until the end of this week.

Tuesday's lows matches the Weekly 50% level (random support)


Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

The same pattern on Euro, Tuesday is favouring a move down towards Tuesday's lows.

If Monday closes below the 3-day lows @ 1.4405 I favour a move down into Tuesday's lows (random support).

If price closes above Monday's lows, then I favour a move back towards the 5-day 50% level, which hopefully can set-up a move down into Tuesday's lows.

Note:- Around Tuesday's lows price matches the Weekly 50% level, which could result in a rotation upwards.

As mentioned in the Weekly report, I favour price gradually slipping back towards the Monthly 50% levels before any new trend develops in 2009.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 11:33

Trading above the Weekly balance point, but nearing the 3-day filter highs (random resistance.

No probability pattern on Monday


EURO Weekly and 3-day pattern

Already trading around resistance (Monday's highs)

But trading above the Weekly 50% levels...

No probability pattern on Monday...

Use the Spiral filters....

AUD/USD 27th December 2008 Weekly

AUD/USD Monthly and Weekly

Last Week of trading until the end of the year and i'm not expecting too much to happen next week other than another consolidating 5-day pattern to close out the year.


Next Week:- In the short term have to judge the market based on the Weekly 50% levels until the close of the trading year, and then we have to analyse the price action with the next Quarterly 50% level in 2009.

Because of the failure to close above the December 50% level we don't have the expectation that the AUD is moving in a 2 month wave pattern up towards the Quarerly 50% level and January's highs, even though I think that this will happen before any new down trend continues.

With the breakout of the 3-Week highs in December, this should help the AUD move upwards in January from the Monthly 50% level once the resistance shifts at the end of next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

EUR/USD 27th December 2008 Weekly

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Last Week of trading until the end of the year and i'm not expecting too much to happen next week.

The euro will certainly drop once the union starts cutting rates, but in the mean time we have to analyse the price action with next Quarterly 50% level.

A Set-up :- remains above the monthly 50% levels and follow a 2- month pattern upwards, based on the cross-over of the December 50% level towards January's highs.

B Set-up:- 4th Quarter 50% level stalls the market the previous week, and then the first Quarter 50% level begins to push the Euro back down towards the Janaury lows.

We should get a better idea by the close next week.

Next Week:- in the short term have to judge the market based on the Weekly 50% levels.

As mentioned I'm not expecting much to happen except another consolidating 5-day pattern.

GBP/USD 27th December 2008 Weekly

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP is struggling against the USD even with the US cutting rates.

After the failure of the 3-week highs and price trading below November's lows, I would favour and continuation down towards the December's lows, as it continues down into the January lows in the first Quarter.

For traders the Weekly balance point (BP) is the guide.

There is a lower Weekly close so there might be a 2-day up move, but simply trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

24th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

No probability patterns on Wednesday....

Simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter....

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

The same for the Euro...trade on the side of the 3-day filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies were range bound on Monday between the 3-day filters and Blue filters.....

Tuesday:- The same pattern of the 3-day filter as random resistance.

In this instance pushing the AUD back down into Tuesday's lows and the Weekly 50% level.

I haven't factored in a 'buy' pattern on Tuesday, but if price trading above the 3-day filter along with Tuesday's 3-day highs and 5-day 50% level matching, might result in a breakout of the 3-day pattern and further upside gains this week back towards last Week's highs.


Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter random resistance, and looking at the pattern favours a push down into Tuesday's lows (December 50%).

Above the 3-day filter and price is moving UP towards the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22n Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 11:05 am

no Probability pattern on Monday...

3-day filter random resistance & blue filter as a trend guide.


Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern....

Same as AUD....

3-day filter random resistance and blue filter as a trend guide

AUD/USD 20th December 2008 Weekly

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD rallied on the rate cut, but that move back towards the December 50% level was going to happen regardless because of last Friday's close above the 3-week highs.

AUD failed to continue higher this week, resulting in a failure below the 4th Quarter lows and December 50% level.

In the mean time I would look for a 2 week consolidation pattern between this week's highs and the Weekly 50% levels.

There is still the potential for the AUD to continue back down but I'll come to that in January.

Either AUD follows the Quarterly breakout pattern and continues down into January...

Or price moves upwards from the January 50% level and swings back towards the Quarterly 50% level which matches the 3-month highs.

All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

EUR/USD 20th December 2008 Weekly

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Last Friday closed above the Monthly 50% level resulting in the rally towards December's highs and the Quarterly 50% level.

The set-up that I was looking for was a retest of the Weekly 50% level before the market continued higher, which didn't play out.

Next Week:- major resistance has hit....

When the European union starts cutting rates in the new year the Euro will be hit, which will be based on the next Quarterly 50% level and into new lows.


In the mean time I would look for a 2 week consolidation pattern between this week's highs and December 50% level until January....

Daily report out on Monday

GBP/USD 20th December 2008 Weekly

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Last Week's up move on the back of the rate cuts was set-up before, as price was trading above the Weekly 50% and expectation of a move towards the December 50% level.

At this stage the view is two weeks of consolidation until the end of the year, and then see whether GBP continues down early in January or moves towards the Quarterly 50% level.

But with this week's failure of the 3-week highs, price looks to be pushing down.

GBP 3-day pattern

Within the 5-day pattern the trends are defined by the 5-day 50% level but also the blue 3-day mid point.

I would treat the new two weeks as consolidating trading days of UP and DOWN days....

higher daily open closing lower and higher Daily opens closing lower

19th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Monthly and 3-day pattern

AUD has stalled at the December 50% level, which is also below the 4th Quarter lows.

Once below the blue filter (3-day mid point), sellers appeared pushing the AUD lower.

At this stage whilst price is trading below the 5-day 50% level the expectation is to continue down into Friday's lows.

This pattern would be a high probability pattern if the Weekly timeframe was moving lower from a higher open, but in this case it's not.

Because the AUD is coming from a lower Weekly open, Friday could end up stalling and moving back towards the 3-day filter.

Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

Euro Monthly and 3-day pattern

Euro has stalled around December's highs and the Quarterly 50% level.

The expectation now is that the Euro is slowly moving back towards the January 50% level.

Ideal pattern would be to see a Friday close below those highs today.

Therefore I would like the Euro to move back towards the 3-day filter :- resistance.

This matches the upper levels:- resistance

Friday:- Random support the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD stalled at the December 50% level.

If it's going to follow a similar path as the Euro and continue higher towards the Quarterly 50% level in January, it should continue higher using the blue 3-day filter currently @ 69.90

If it's going to stall, then below the same level and expectation of a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level and breakout of the Weekly highs.

Trade on the side of the blue filter (confirmed after 11am)

Euro Monthly and 3-day pattern

Continues to trend higher and will complete the move back towards the December highs which also match the Quarterly 50% level.

At this stage this is viewed as major resistance, but will need to verify any resistanct with a Friday close below and then a higher Sell on Monday (top-to-bottom Weekly timeframe)

In the short term I can't see too much more upside, but simply trade on the same side as the blue filter currently @ 1.4270

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Rate cut in the US and AUD will probably follow a similar pattern as the Euro and continue back towards its first Quarter 50% level in 2009.

AUD has a weekly breakout and if Price continues higher and closes above the December 50% level this Friday, I would look for a similar pattern as the Euro ( chart below)

Wednesday:- Ideally I would like to see the AUD back down into the Blue filter and then continue higher towards Wednesday's highs.

At this stage I would treat the AUD is a trending Weekly timeframe continuing higher into Friday.

The upper channels can resistance price in the short-term but the bias is to continue.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro continuing higher towards December's highs....


Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Wednesday random resistance....

Blue 3-day filter random support

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 4

AUD 17:12

looking for some buying price action from 3pm and a R41 hook above 6692.

This completed but it's still below the 3-day filter.

Long 6688 partial exit 6708 + 20

added 6693

( trailing stops 6683 -10)

still have the expectation that AUD is moving higher...

if stopped out I won't trade again today

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stopped on trailing @ 6683 -10

16th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 3

AUD 14:40

Last Thursday there was a rally on the break of the 3-day filter. (yellow)

Last friday price reversed back down from the 3-day filter.

Today price is pushing down early on Tuesday from the 3-day filter @ 6705

On each occassion and yesterday price was being pushed away from the 3-day blue filter. Either prices was supported or attracted on Friday.

Today price is currently being supported @ 6683 but below 6705, therefore the AUD can go either way.

I'm bullish, and If the AUD is going to continue higher it will need to rise up from 3pm and 'HOOK on the R41 above the brown filter @ 6692.

The same pattern as last Thursday.

16th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD 10:35

Expectation of higher prices on AUD, but at the same time the 3-day filter on Tuesday could end up resistance, as I expected more upside on Monday.

Long 6661 added 6693....

Trailing stops @ 6670 (-7)

Looking to partial exit @ 6725 (+ 32) and hold.

If the AUD is going to go higher then the AUD should push upwards on Tuesday.

Level trailing stops @ 6670 even after the partial exit

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stopped 6670 -7

16th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 8.10

Most currencies against the USD have rallied, but the AUD is lagging any continuation on the upside.

The Fed meets on Tuesday, and any cut in rates whether it's factored in or not the expectation remains that the AUD is moving towards the Weekly highs and back towards the December 50% level.

3-day filter the trend guide.

EURO Monthly and Weekly

Euro moving back towards December's highs, which matches the Quarterly 50% levels.

Weekly highs breakout......

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Euro:- at this stage the trend continues higher but I still have to follow the patterns.

Tuesday highs random resistance.

Blue 3-day filters support, as the Euro hasn't traded below those levels for the past 6 days.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
  
  

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD 14:45

As per previous report, above the 3-day filter and the expectation is that price is heading towards the Monday's highs @ 68.

Long 6661

looking to partial exit @ 6695 + 34 or 3pm...

Stops @ 6629 (-32)

Holding until 6780

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AUD 15:00

partial exit 6694 + 33

15th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD heading towards the Weekly highs...

3-day filter resistance @ 6659

Above and price is continuing towards Monday's highs.





Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Monday's highs resistance, which could see price hit the Wekly highs.

Ideally I would still like to see price move back down into the Weekly 50% level to verify last week's breakout of the 3-week highs.

AUD/USD 13 th December 2008 Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

There is still a bias to continue up towards the Monthly 50% levels, and probalby higher into the new Quarterly 50% level in January...

Next Week :- support Weekly 50% levels, and we can see an important pattern with the Friday close above the 3-week highs (White line), which suggests a move towards the December 50% level.

Note:- price is trading below the 4th Quarter breakout, which could result in a stall-resistance pattern until the actual Quarterly timeframe ends and resistance shifts, allowing the AUD to continue higher towards the Quarterly 50% level in early January.

Therefore the Weekly highs next week are seen as a random resistance zone.

EUR/USD 13th December 2008 Weekly

Euro Monthly and Weekly


Expectation that the Euro was moving higher this week into the Weekly highs.

There was also an expectation that price woulld stall and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level, but instead price broke out the following day.

A change of a major trend always begins with the breakout of the 3-week channels.

However price is trading below the 4th Quarter breakout, which could result in a stall pattern until the actual Quarterly timeframe ends and resistance shifts, allowing the EURO to continue higher towards the Quarterly 50% level in early January.

Next Week:- Because of the 3-week breakout I would still like to see price come back down and retest the breakout, which aligns with the Weekly 50% level.

Weekly highs resistance & Weekly 50% level support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

GBP/USD 13 th December 2008 Weekly

GBP Monthly and Weekly

There is still a bias to continue up towards the Monthly 50% levels, and probalby higher into the new Quarterly 50% level in January...

Next Week :- support Weekly 50% levels


GBP 3-day pattern

5-day 50% level and 3-day filter support.

It seems the most robust support is the re-test of the 3-day filter and then the next day moving higher from the 5-day 50% level.

Friday support, therefore I would look for higher moves on Monday from the 5-day 50% level.

12th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 4

AUD 15:25

AUD fails to hold the 5-day 50% level and is moving back down into Friday's 3-day lows.

At this stage it's a fake break of the Weekly highs (without a Friday close above).

Bearish pattern is a breakout of Friday's lows.



EURO reverses down from a 3pm high but without me on it after taking out me trailing stop.

Target is minimum move @ 1.3219 and down into the 5-day 50% level.

12th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 3

AUD & EURO 14:22

AUD exit trades @ .6668 + 30 + 62 pips

Euro partial exit + 30

Holding with breakeven stops...

12th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD & Euro 14:08

Expectation that currencies will try and move down into the 5-day 50% level before prices continue higher...

AUD Short 6730 target 30 pips and hold down into 6668 and exit.

Euro Short 1.3360

Target 30 pips and hold for a move back into 1.3225 + 135

Stops 9 pips in each

12th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:20am

Weekly breakout and heading back towards the December 50% levels.

Thursday high breakout normally sees a rotation back down to re-test the breakout, which aligns with the 5-day 50% level.

Any continuation higher this week should hopefully be rising upwards from the 5-day 50% level.

There are still two probable patterns that could occur:- Friday continues towards the Friday highs and then reverses back down into support on Monday.

Or the most robust pattern would be to see a lower move early on Friday into the 5-day 50% level and then continue higher on Friday:- Higher Weekly close.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same view as the Aussie analysis.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 3

EURO Weekly, 3-day pattern and Spiral 16:35

Euro Rally and breaking the 3-week highs, which can lead to more gains towards the December 50% level.

However the UP move has hit Thursday's highs, along with the Spiral filter.

Short 1.3110 (stops 1.3120)

Ideally I would like to see the Euro back below 1.3066, and hopefully back around the 5-day 50% level on Thursday.

11th Dec 2008 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD 3-day pattern 11:40

3-day filter resistance...

but no spiral filter matches atm



Euro 3-day pattern

Expectation that Euro is moving back down into the 5-day 50% level after reaching the Weekly highs.

Been short @ 1.3023 since this morning.

Euro is either going to continue down into 5-day 50% level in this 4 hour period, or it won't surprise me to see a retest of the Weekly highs again early Thursday.

Target and partial exit 1.2995 and hold into 1.2910

Stops 1.3031 -8