FOREX EUR/USD 1st July 2008

EUR daily and 3-day pattern


As per Weekly report, expectation price is coming down to test the monthly 50% level in July, and then see whether it continues higher, or actually breaks.

This is going to be confirmed with Tuesday's lows and 5-day 50% level.

I have an each way bet on whether Tuesday's lows hold or not because of the 'step' formation of the monthly 50% level (read Weekly Report).

A bullish pattern will find support off Tuesday's lows and continue higher.

A beaish pattern will break the 3-day lows and close below them, with the expectation that Wednesday will then continue down.

Trade on the side of Tuesday's lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 1st July 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

Expectation AUD is heading higher, but Monday has followed the usual pattern from a higher Weekly open back down into support zones, as it follows a 2-day reversal pattern.

Whenever the price reverses back down from a higher weekly open, the Weekly trend is defined by the 3-day lows, the 5-day 50% level, and the Weekly 50% level.

Because Price has tested and found support on Monday's 3-day lows without breaking, Tuesday will be defined by the 5-day 50% level

3-day filter

There is no probability pattern on Tuesday, Price is too high from the Weekly 50% level to use as support, and more often than not a bounce and test of Monday's lows can support the market on Tuesday

Tuesday looks to be a 2nd stalling day, with a better pattern set-up from Wednesday.

Day-traders simply use the 5-day 50% level as the trend guide.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 30th June 2008

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

As per Weekly Report:- expectation a push higher into Monday's highs and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level.

A 2-day reversal should align with July's 50% level, which will be confirmed tomorrow.

Support:- 3-day lows (Tuesday)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 28th June 2008

EURO Weekly and Daily charts

As per Weekly report last week, the expectation of higher prices into Friday as it moves towards the Weekly highs.

If the Euro is going to continue higher then it should move up from July's 50% level and continue towards July's highs.

However, i'm slightly not convinced just yet that the EURO will go higher because of the 'step' formation' of the Monthly 50% level of July. Often a 'higher step' becomes as forewarning pattern that prices could reverse back down.

Next Week:- expectaton of higher prices into the Weekly highs, but once those higher prices are reached the expectation of a reversal back down into the July 50% level.

If July is going to hold and continue higher it should test and bounce off the 3-day lows and move higher the next day, not break the 3-day lows....

A break of the 3-day lows and trading below July's 50% level, and the expectation is that price is moving back down to last month's lows once again.

• Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

Subscribe to the Trader Premium

http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 28th June 2008

GBP Weekly and Daily charts

As per last Weekly report, expectation of higher prices back towards the Weekly highs.

Expectation that GBP would continue up towards 2.0149, but ideally the best set-up would be a reversal back down into the July 50% level on Tuesday and then use a lower Daily open confirmed with the 5-day 50% level to trade back towards the Weekly highs.

There is a breakout of the Weekly highs, therefore the expectation is higher prices, hopefully after a 2-day stall reversal downwards before it continues higher.

Note: if it continues higher without pulling back into the Weekly, I would look for a reversal back down into July's 50% level, using the Weekly highs as resistance, along with the intra-day 3-day filter.

Please refer to the Daily report...

• Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

Subscribe to the Trader Premium

http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html

<

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 28th June 08

AUD Weekly and Daily charts

Expectation AUD was heading higher, with the bounce off the June 50% levels, and confirmed with the Weekly 50% levels on the way up, as per previous Report.

This higher it kicks up in the Next Quarter, the expectation price will move back down and test the Quarterly 50% levels currently @ 92.58...

But in the short term the view is to continue higher.....

FOREX EUR/USD 27th June 2008

"The 5-day 50% level supports price sending the EURO towards the Weekly highs.

Wednesday breakout, and expectation is that the EURO will push up higher on Thursday...

Probability pattern:- breakout and extend into Thursday's highs, reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level and Support....

Which coincides with multiple timeframe 50% levels:- 5-day, Weekly and Monthly, and then if Support is verified, look for higher prices on Friday:- Rising Weekly timeframe"

Yesterday's report

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro heading back towards the Weekly highs after rising up this week.

Thursday's view was to continue higher from the break and hit resistance around Thursday's highs, but instead continued higher into another breakout.

The Weekly pattern is forming a 5-day pattern rising higher....

EURO 3-day filter

Thursday's up move and continuation higher still has the view of a rotation back down to re-test the 5-day 50% level....

Friday's trend on whether it reverses back down or continues higher should be defined by the 3-day filter (brown)...

But we need to keep in mind of where this week's price is trying to move towards, and that's the Weekly highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 26th June 2008

GBP/USD Daily

Following on from the Weekly report.... Expectation price would reverse down from last Week's highs, test the Weekly 50% level and then rise higher this week.

This rise up into the Weekly highs completes the move for this week...

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 26th June 2008

Weekly Report:-"Expectation prices are moving higher, but the pattern I would look for is a push up on Monday and then hopefully reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level....I'd like to see a daily pullback next week and then use the 5-day 50% level to trade UP...."


Yesterday's Report:- "Tuesday failed to rise and 'hook' above those higher timeframe 50% levels, instead stalling, therefore it's a bit early to make a clear judgement on whether the EURO continues higher this week.

There is no probability pattern on Wednesday, except defining the trend either side of the 50% levels....But whilst price is trading above that level, then the 5-day Weekly trend remains bullish."

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

The 5-day 50% level supports price sending the EURO towards the Weekly highs.

Wednesday breakout, and expectation is that the EURO will push up higher on Thursday...

Probability pattern:- breakout and extend into Thursday's highs, reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level and Support....

Which coincides with multiple timeframe 50% levels:- 5-day, Weekly and Monthly, and then if Support is verified, look for higher prices on Friday:- Rising Weekly timeframe

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 26th June 2008

"Expectation that the AUD would continue higher this week after testing the 5-day 50% level and rising up from the Weekly 50% level towards the Weekly highs.

There is no probability pattern on Wednesday, but because price has broken out on Tuesday, the expectation is that price will move up on Wednesday and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level before the trend continues higher the following day...."

Yesterday's Report


AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

AUD rising up from the Weekly 50% level and heading towards the Weekly highs.

Wednesday reversed back down and tested the 5-day 50% level, bounced and is now continuing higher.

For the rest of this week I don't have any other probability patterns until Friday ends and closes out the Week....

Next AUD/USD Report on the Weekend (Weekly Report)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 25th June 2008

"A bounce off the 3-day lows (Monday) and move back above those 50% level on Tuesday will set-up higher prices into the end of the Week.

Like any good pattern, a UP move should hopefully begin from a lower Daily open and rising upwards.

Tuesday's trading is simply going to be defined by the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level, above those levels and the pattern we should be looking for is a move back towards the 3-day highs..."

Yesterday's Report

EUR Daily and 3-day pattern

EURO along with all major spreads against the USD rose higher on Tuesday and back towards the 3-day highs, which was the pattern I was looking for.

However Tuesday failed to rise and 'hook' above those higher timeframe 50% levels, instead stalling, therefore it's a bit early to make a clear judgement on whether the EURO continues higher this week.

EURO 3-day filter


Longs on the break of the filter on Tuesday confirmed the UP move, but Wednesday is simply going to be defined by the same filter and 5-day 50% level.

There is no probability pattern on Wednesday, except defining the trend either side of those levels, because of the failure to close above the higher timeframe 50% levels Wednesday has an each way bet.

But whilst price is trading above that level, then the 5-day Weekly trend remains bullish......

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 25th June 2008

"AUD has reversed down and moved into the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level.

This is the pattern that I was looking for before any higher move can take place, even though it's only the first day of a 2-day reversal pattern.

Because the AUD hasn't completed the 95 pip reversal, I would like to see Tuesday come down complete the move and bounce off Tuesday's 3-day low pattern before any UP trend continues...."

Yesterday's report

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern


Expectation that the AUD would continue higher this week after testing the 5-day 50% level and rising up from the Weekly 50% level towards the Weekly highs.

However my ideal Long set-up off Tuesday's low and 95 pip spiral didn't pan out...

There is no probability pattern on Wednesday, but because price has broken out on Tuesday, the expectation is that price will move up on Wednesday and reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level before the trend continues higher the following day....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREx EUR/USD 24th June 2008

"Therefore if price is above the June 50% level, then expectation is pushing higher, but first I'd like to see a daily pullback next week and then use the 5-day 50% level to trade UP.

Next week expectation prices are moving higher, but the pattern I would look for is a push up on Monday and then hopefully reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level...."

Weekly Report....

EUR Daily and 3-day pattern

Monday reversed down and back into the 3-day lows, which puts price back under the Weekly and Monthly 50% level.

The bullish pattern this week based on trading above those higher timeframe 50% levels is now open to Risk of failing, but a bounce off the 3-day lows (Monday) and move back above those 50% level on Tuesday will set-up higher prices into the end of the Week.

Like any good pattern, a UP move should hopefully begin from a lower Daily open and rising upwards...

Euro 3-day filter

I was looking for a push up on Monday and then a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level from Friday.

Except the Euro didn't push up higher enough, missing the move down.

Tuesday's trading is simply going to be defined by the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level, above those levels and the pattern we should be looking for is a move back towards the 3-day highs.

Note:- bearish pattern is a move up into Monday's 50% level into 1.5579, which matches the higher timeframe 50% levels (Weekly and monthly), and then price rejects back down breaking the 3-day filter support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 24th June 2008

"Because of a higher Weekly close, the expectation is for a 2-day pullback or stall before any UP trend continues.

Therefore the pattern I would be looking for is a pullback into the 5-day 50% level (lower Daily close) and then trade up from a lower daily open....

Because price is being pushed down from a Spiral top on Friday, the expectation that any pullback will be 95 pips..... "

Weekly Report...

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

AUD has reversed down and moved into the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level.

This is the pattern that I was looking for before any higher move can take place, even though it's only the first day of a 2-day reversal pattern.

Because the AUD hasn't completed the 95 pip reversal, I would like to see Tuesday come down complete the move and bounce off Tuesday's 3-day low pattern before any UP trend continues....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 21st June 2008

GBP/USD Weekly and Daily charts

Last Week's view was a rotation up into the Weekly 50% level and then trade down, with a pattern of a higher Daily close on Monday and then trade shorts down on Tuesday.

Except Monday rallied further than expected, and Tuesday's reversal down didn't have follow through, with Thursday kicking up higher into Friday.

Next Week:- looking at price action, expectation prices are moving higher, but the pattern I'm looking for is a reversal back down into the Weekly 50% level and then continue higher.

However, if GBP is going to continue much higher, then July's 50% level is the trend guide, as depicted in the Weekly chart on the left.

GBP 3-day pattern

Expectation is a reversal down from Friday's highs and back into Friday's 5-day 50% level, matching the Weekly 50% level, before any UP trend continues.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 21st June 2008

"3-week cycle is a sell and failure this week to break the 3-week highs, and now moving below June's 50% level will push the Euro lower towards 1.5000

Next Week's view is a move up and then continuation lower.... The best set-up for the EURO to trade shorts would see price come up and test the 3-day highs. It could be Monday or the next day, but an ideal pattern is a move up into the 3-day highs and sell down from a higher daily open..."

Previous Weekly Report

Euro Weekly and Daily charts

Last Week's price action didn't follow through on the downside after moving back into the 3-day highs. There was resistance, but Friday continue higher pushing price back above the June 50% level.

Therefore if price is above the June 50% level, then expectation is pushing higher, but first I'd like to see a daily pullback next week and then use the 5-day 50% level to trade UP.

Euro 3-day pattern

Around each daily high last week there was resistance, with Thursday providing the reversal pattern, but the best set-up trading longs on Friday didn't come down into the level I wanted it.

Next week expectation prices are moving higher, but the pattern I would look for is a push up on Monday and then hopefully reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 21st June 08

AUD Weekly and Daily charts

The AUD found support at the June 50% level and began rising upwards into a higher Weekly close on Friday.

Last week's view was for the AUD to come down an test July's 50% level, but also the Weekly Trend was going to be defined by the Weekly 50% level, and once above that the bias was to rise higher into Friday.

Looking at the price action, if the AUD is going to continue back towards the June highs, then price should be rising upwards for the Weekly 50% level once again.

AUD 3-day pattern and Spiral


Because of a higher Weekly close, the expectation is for a 2-day pullback or stall before any UP trend continues.

Therefore the pattern I would be looking for is a pullback into the 5-day 50% level (lower Daily close) and then trade up from a lower daily open....

Because price is being pushed down from a Spiral top on Friday, the expectation that any pullback will be 95 pips, but looking at the price action for Monday, it won't necessarily be reversing down on that day...

Because price is trading above .9522, it often pushes up higher on Monday.

Follow the Daily reports for trading set-ups

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 20th June 2008

"Because price is trading below the Spiral filter (read previous report) the expectation remains that the 90-95 pip range should hopefully complete.

This would hopefully be confirmed with a break of support on Thursday"

Yesterday's Report

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro reverse down into the 5-day 50% level completing the 95 pip reversal from yesterday's highs.

There are two plays on Friday based on the price pattern :-

A:- price is reversing down from the June 50% level and back into the 5-day 50% level, if the Euro us going to swing higher most likely level would be from Friday's lows, and back towards the highs....

B:- If price is following the June 50% level reversal, then price action as shown...

Rejection pattern and break of Friday's lows, and continuing lower next Week...

It's an each way bet on the direction on Friday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 20th June 2008

"Today:- Thursday looks to be pushing up into the highs, and expected pattern would be to come back down and test the Weekly 50% level as support..."

Yesterday's Report...

AUD daily and 3-day pattern

Expectation of a push higher on Thursday, and as shown in the charts above, expectation of price reversing back down into the Weekly 50% level on Friday.

Note: a reversal pattern from a higher open has a random length, meaning that any reversal down has an expectation to close lower, which could go as far as Friday's low.

Any data released on Friday will obviously spike prices

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 19th June 2008

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

EURO range bound on Wednesday, testing the highs and pushing down again...

Because price is trading below the Spiral filter (read previous report) the expectation remains that the 90-95 pip range should hopefully complete.

This would hopefully be confirmed with a break of support on Thursday.


Otherwise 'support' can push price up into Thursday's highs, which match the June 50% level.

Euro intraday 3-day pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 19th June 2008

AUD Daily and 3-days

As per Yesterday's report, I didn't have a probability pattern otherthan understanding that the AUD was rising up from the June 50% level....

"define today's trend either side of the 5-day 50% level, which currently price is above it, and above the Weekly 50% level expectation price is moving towards Wednesday's highs."

AUD ended up rising up from Wednesday's 5-day 50% level and has continued up towards Wednesday's highs.

Today:- Thursday looks to be pushing up into the highs, and expected pattern would be to come back down and test the Weekly 50% level as support...

Trading range :- Thursday's highs and 5-day 50% level

Note: Use the Spiral filter as a trend guide on Thursday, as it's pushing up into 95 pip highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 18th June 2008

EUR Daily and 3-day pattern

EURO has followed the 2-day counter-trend move up into Tuesday's highs.

With price trading below the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels traders begin to look for any sign of a 3rd day sell down.

That would be a break of support and a continuation down into Wednesday's lows, preferrably breaking them :- lower Daily close.

Whilst price is below the Spiral filter, then at this stage the bias is to look for a contination downward.

As per Trading Rules:- using the spiral filter take out the first lot around 41 pips and then hold looking for a continuation downward hopefully breaking support on Wednesday.

FOREX AUD/USD 18th June 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

Yesterday's view was to use Tuesday's highs as a resistance zone along with the Weekly 50% level (note: levels confirmed at midnight GMT)

As per trading rules, once the 41-43 pip range has completed as first exit zone, the trader can hold into the 90-95 pip range.

The first range completed (41 pips) but Tuesday didn't have any follow through on the downside to continue down.

Today:- Looking at price action over the past two days I don't have a probability pattern for Wednesday

If AUD is going to continue down, then it will normally continue down after a two day counter-trend move up.

However, price is rising up from June's 50% level, which is a major support level this month. If price was trading below it, then I would look for a 'short' pattern.

At this stage I would need to see Wednesday play out to get the next best set-up, ideally a break of the 3-day lows would set-up Thursday's pattern.

Otherwise define today's trend either side of the 5-day 50% level, which currently price is above it, and above the Weekly 50% level expectation price is moving towards Wednesday's highs.

No Set-up today

FOREX GBP/USD 17th June 2008 Recap

"Expectation that GBP would have an UP day on Monday and then look to sell down from a higher open on Tuesday using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide.

However, Monday's UP day ended up moving higher than expected, breaking out of the 3-day range.

Breakout of the 3-day range will normally move into the highs the next day, but it also comes back to re-test the 5-day 50% level on most occassions.

Therefore:- Tuesday's highs are view as resistance to trade back down into the 5-day 50% level...."

Premium Report 17th June

GBP Daily and 3-day pattern

Tuesday pushes up into the 3-day highs and reverses back down into the 5-day 50% level closing out the trading day....

• Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

Subscribe to the Trader Premium

http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html

FOREX EUR/USD 17th June 2008 part 2

EUR Daily and 3-day pattern

EURO following the 2-day counter-trend move up into Tuesday's highs......

FOREX EUR/USD 17th June 2008

EUR daily and 3-day pattern

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/06/forex-eurusd-weekly-14th-june-2008.html

As per Weekly Report, expectation price was pushing up towards the Weekly 50% level and Monday's highs, and then reverse back down towards the lows.

Tuesday's trend will simply be defined by the 5-day 50% level and 3-day high (yellow).

If price is going to continue down into the Weekly lows, then it should sell off and continue down.

If price is going to follow the standard two day counter-trend move then the 5-day 50% level will support price, which isn't part of my probability pattern today.

FOREX AUD/USD 17th June 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

As per Weekly Report :-

http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/06/forex-audusd-14th-june-2008.html

Looking for a push upwards on Monday towards the Weekly 50% level and then a continuation lower.

Normal price patterns from lower Weekly opens is a two day counter-trend move before the trend continues down. Monday is the first, and if Tuesday follows the same pattern, then price should continue higher....

However, looking and the range length on Monday, price on Tuesday can easily reversed down from Tuesday's 3-day high and spiral top.

As mentioned in the Weekly Report, we need to see a higher Daily open to trade down, and this is aligning with Tuesday's 3-day high (Yellow).

Dont' short trade above the Spiral filter.

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

EUR Weekly and Daily charts

EURO heading back towards 1.5000

3-week cycle is a sell and failure this week to break the 3-week highs, and now moving below June's 50% level will push the Euro lower.

Next Week's view is a move up and then continuation lower....


"Therefore a robust pattern early this week is to come down a test the 5-day 50% level, and then find support around Tuesday's 3-day lows before heading higher into Friday.

Basically the 3-day lows on Tuesday need to hold for a continuation upwards."

Previous Weekly Report

EUR 3-day pattern

Last Week I was looking for a a push down into Tuesday's lows... it was critical for Tuesday to hold if the up-trend was going to continue.

Once Tuesday close below the 3-day lows, then the expectation was for price to continue lower into Thursday's lows, and follow the weekly timeframe lower.

Next Week:- The best set-up for the EURO to trade shorts would see price come up and test the 3-day highs. It could be Monday or the next day, but an ideal pattern is a move up into the 3-day highs and sell down from a higher daily open

EUR Spiral Filter

Once again use the Spiral filter as your trend guide and least Risk trade.

Note: each bar represents 95 pips over the past couple of weeks

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

As what occured in the Jan-March highs, I would be looking for any resistance around 97cents, but then weakness needs to be confirmed with a break of the 3-day lows....

On Monday, the pattern is once again looking for a down move of 90-95 pips whilst price is trading below the Spiral tops....

Support:- Tuesday's 3-day lows....

Previous Weekly Report

AUD/USD 3-day pattern

Expectation that the AUD was reversing back down from a higher open on Monday and back towards Tuesday's dynamic lows.

Except Monday ended up moving down below the Weekly 50% level, and then the rest of the Week followed the market lower, as per Daily reports.

AUD Weekly and Daily chart

Expectation that AUD is moving back towards July's 50% level...

Next Week's view is a push up into the Weekly 50% level, and then that level should be a trend guide for the rest of the week on any continuation lower.

Therefore a higher daily close should be followed by a higher daily open and moving downwards from the 5-day 50% level.

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 14th June 2008

Last Week's expectation was to trade the 'short' side of the market down, because of price trading below the higher timeframe 50% levels, along with a higher Weekly open.

This week is much of the same....

Previous Weely report

GBP Weekly and Daily charts

Higher Weekly open and break of the Weekly 50% level sending GBP lower.

Next Week's view is a rotation towards the Weekly 50% level and then a continuation down into the Weekly lows, which match June's lows.

GBP 3-day pattern

FOREX EUR/USD 13th June 2008

EUR Daily and 3-day pattern


Expectation of a continuation down into Thursday's lows.


With the EURO trading below June's 50% level, the trend bias is to continue downwards, but expect daily counter-trend moves upwards from lower daily opens the next day.


At this stage Friday looks range bound between both blue channels, unless some data comes out which often spikes the spread against the USD on Friday's.

No probability trade on Friday.

FOREX AUD/USD 13th June 2008

AUD/USD daily and 3-day pattern

AUD has rotated down into June's 50% level and has continued down breaking Thursday's lows.

In this case, the expectation is a continuation down into Friday's lows.

Often a lower Daily open will get some buyers appearing, and lately Friday has seen most USD spreads rally on Friday's when data-reports are released.

If that's the case on Friday I wouldn't be short trading above the 5-day 50% level.

At this stage the Weekly trend is to continue down into Friday's lows, and I will get a better idea on the next move in the trend once Friday closes and the new week begins.

Short-covering Friday's lows.....

AUD 3-day pattern

FOREX AUD/USD 12th June 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

This week's break of Monday's lows and continuation below the Weekly 50% level, and expectation is that AUD was heading back down into .9338

This move has completed by reaching Thursday's lows, with matching price.

At this stage these 3-day lows are support, but not part of a major UP swing.

If looking to go long around these lows keep stops tight :- don't trade longs elow Thursday's lows