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FOREX EUR/USD 1st August 2008
"Last day of the month on Thursday looks to be a range day, which could go as high as July's 50% level to close out the month in the middle of the range @ 1.5683"
Yesterday's Report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Yesterday's Report
EURO Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro rallied off Thursday's lows and moved back into the July 50% level before it got sold off.
August 50% level is the trend guide next week:- ideally a continuation down into next Week's lower lows.
But as often is the case on Friday:- the past few months has rarely seen a Friday that closes lower.
Normal Pattern is a higher close or a sideways pattern to close out the Weekly timeframe.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 1st August 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
Yesterday's view was an UP move into the 5-day 50% level, but hopefully a higher daily close so the August 50% level could be used to trade down from.
This didn't happen, but the same pattern can hopefully play out early next week.
Friday:- No probability pattern.
Even though I'm expecting lower prices to .925, Fridays very rarely continue down. Friday normally rises higher or moves in a sideways pattern.
I would prefer to let Friday trade out and hopefully provide an UP swing back towards the August 50% level next week and then continue down.
Weekly Report Tomorrow
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 31st July 2008 part 2
AUD daily 3-day pattern
AUD following the pattern of having an UP day, which should hopefully align with a higher open around the August 50% level...
Brown filter is the trend guide....
At this stage Thursday's UP day is only viewed as a move back towards the 5-day 50% level.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 31st July 2008
AUD daily and 3-day patternAUD completed the rotation down into July's 50% level and the Weekly lows.
Even though I'm looking for a move down into .925 cents, I think Thursday will rotate up into the 5-day 50% level, or higher.
But if there is going to be a another move down into .925 cents, this should hopefully align perfectly with a higher open on Friday and a 'sell' pattern down from the August 50% level.
Note: Wednesday has closed below it's lows, which often suggests another breakout in the daily timeframe, which often pushes lower and follows the next day's range.
That could still happen, but I would ideally like to see a higher daily close and trade down from the August 50% level into .925
No probability pattern on Thursday
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 31st July 2008
The entire Weekly probability pattern has played out and I don't have a view for the rest of this week until the end of Friday.
Therefore trade the levels:- Wednesday Support and 5-day 50% level resistance using the intra-day brown filter as confirming patterns"
Yesterday's Report
EURO Daily and 3-day pattern
Wednesday continued down finding support around Wednesday's low and moving into a small range day.
Ideally the set-up was for a slight rise higher into the 50% level and then push down into the lows.
Last day of the month on Thursday looks to be a range day, which could go as high as July's 50% level to close out the month in the middle of the range @ 1.5683
No probability pattern for Thursday
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Therefore trade the levels:- Wednesday Support and 5-day 50% level resistance using the intra-day brown filter as confirming patterns"
Yesterday's Report
EURO Daily and 3-day patternWednesday continued down finding support around Wednesday's low and moving into a small range day.
Ideally the set-up was for a slight rise higher into the 50% level and then push down into the lows.
Last day of the month on Thursday looks to be a range day, which could go as high as July's 50% level to close out the month in the middle of the range @ 1.5683
No probability pattern for Thursday
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREx AUD/USD 30th July 2008 part 2
AUD Daily and 3-day patternAUD continues the push down on Wednesday into the July 50% level, Weekly lows, along with Wednesday lows:- brown filter
FOREx AUD/USD 30th July 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day patternThis week's probability pattern was to continue down into the July 50% level and Weekly lows.
The most robust pattern was a rise UP on Monday and a Sell the higher open on Tuesday down from the 3-day filter.
The rest of this week is to continue down into the Weekly lows.
This could happen early on Wednesday pushing down (brown filter) and into Wednesday's low and Weekly lows (Support)
Or if price moves up into the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday, the expectation is to continue down to complete the move this week.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 30th July 2008
"EURO trading around July's 50% level, and the 3-day pattern often moves back towards the 5-day 50% level on Monday forms resistance during GMT hours, and then kicks higher in US hours.
I think the same pattern is going to play out, but I don't think US time will kick higher based on price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
A continuation down would be towards Monday's lows, and moving towards the Weekly lows on Tuesday."
28th July 2008
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
I think the same pattern is going to play out, but I don't think US time will kick higher based on price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
A continuation down would be towards Monday's lows, and moving towards the Weekly lows on Tuesday."
28th July 2008
EURO Daily and 3-day pattern
EURO completed the move down into the Weekly lows on Tuesday, but on Tuesday's open the probability pattern wasn't as robust compared to the Aussie dollar's sell-off.
The intra-day price action on the Euro had to be confirmed with a break below the 5-day 50% level, whereas in the Aussie it was easily traded from the 3-day filter.
Wednesday:- Well the entire Weekly probability pattern has played out and I don't have a view for the rest of this week until the end of Friday.
Therefore trade the levels:- Wednesday Support and 5-day 50% level resistance using the intra-day brown filter as confirming patterns
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 29th July 2008 part 3
AUD daily and 3-day patternTuesday has played out with price moving down into Tuesday's low from the 3-day filter.
The breakout confirming the continuation down towards the Weekly lows and July's 50% level.
FOREX AUD/USD 29th July 2008 part 2
AUD daily 3-day patternAUD is pushing down from the 3-day filter, but it's not aligned with the intra-day pattern. (brown)
Ideally would like the price just to continue down into Tuesday's lows and break, but because price is trading above (brown) it might not occur until US trading hours.
Hopefully it doesn't kick up in US trading hours
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 29th July 2008
Expectation that the AUD is continuing down into July's 50% level, which is matched by the Weekly lows.
Ideal pattern is a move back into the 5-day 50% level and 3-day highs on Monday and continue down.....
That could occur in US trading hours or from a higher open on Tuesday.....
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Ideal pattern is a move back into the 5-day 50% level and 3-day highs on Monday and continue down.....
That could occur in US trading hours or from a higher open on Tuesday.....
Yesterday's report
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern.
AUD rotated higher on Monday, but failed to reach the 5-day 50% level.
Looking at the 3-day pattern there looks to be a breakout occuring out of the range.
Using the Weekly Report I favour a down move into July's lows...
Therefore it's simply trading on the side of the 3-day filter (yellow)
Tuesday's highs and 5-day 50% level is resistance, but it's not aligned with the 3-day filter for a robust probability pattern downward.
Don't short trade above Tuesday's highs.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 29th July 2008
EURO Daily and 3-day patternMonday's view was a rotation up into the 5-day 50% level and a minimum push down 41 pips.
This normal pattern would attract buyers sending the market higher. It did attract buyers, but this time it didn't send the market higher.
Tuesday:- its an each way bet.
1. Rising up from the Monthly 50% level and a test of the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday can send the market higher on Tuesday (breakout)
2. A push down into the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday, can continue down towards Tuesday's lows and breakout on the down side.
I don't have a probability pattern other than being on the correct side of the Yellow 3-day filter.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 28th July 2008 part 2
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro pushed up from July's 50% level and back into the 5-day 50% level and Monday's highs.
Reversal down 41 pips and partial profits here.
Rest of the day has a random outcome on whether the market will follow the usual pattern and break higher, or continue down into a lower daily close because of price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
Holding....
FOREX AUD/USD 28th July 2008
AUD daily and 3-day patternExpectation that the AUD is continuing down into July's 50% level, which is matched by the Weekly lows.
Ideal pattern is a move back into the 5-day 50% level and 3-day highs on Monday and continue down.....
That could occur in US trading hours or from a higher open on Tuesday.....
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 28th July 2008
Euro Daily and 3-day patternEURO trading around July's 50% level, and the 3-day pattern often moves back towards the 5-day 50% level on Monday forms resistance during GMT hours, and then kicks higher in US hours.
I think the same pattern is going to play out, but I don't think US time will kick higher based on price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
5-day 50% level, which is Monday's highs:- Resistance. (41 pips)
Random pattern of whether price moves higher on Monday, but a continuation down would be towards Monday's lows, and moving towards the Weekly lows on Tuesday.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 26th July 2008
AUD hit 98 cents, and now the expectation is that the AUD over a number of weeks will try and unwind back down into 92 cents.
The first stage of any reversal will be price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
Next Week:- I would like to be short-trading the 3-day highs looking for any break of the Weekly 50% level.
Previous Weekly Report
The first stage of any reversal will be price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
Next Week:- I would like to be short-trading the 3-day highs looking for any break of the Weekly 50% level.
Previous Weekly Report
AUD Weekly and daily charts
AUD pattern looks to be pulling back into .925 cents, and that's what we want to be trading.
It started with the sell on the 3-day highs this week on Tuesday and has continued down....
AUD 3-day filter
Expectation that AUD is moving down into the Weekly lows next week:-
Ideally the best pattern would be a rotation up into the Weekly 50% level and then look for a continuation down from a higher Daily open....
Please Refer to the Daily reports each day for trading set-ups...
FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 26th July 2008
"Need to factor in that the July highs is a resistance zone which could last the entire month until we get closer to the month of August, and then a shift in levels.
We also need to factor in that prices could reverse back down into the monthly 50% level.
Next Week:- Weekly 50% level support once again, and if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level.
The 5-day 50% level next week will be of importance for any continuation down"
Previous Weekly Report
We also need to factor in that prices could reverse back down into the monthly 50% level.
Next Week:- Weekly 50% level support once again, and if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level.
The 5-day 50% level next week will be of importance for any continuation down"
Previous Weekly Report
EURO Weekly and Daily charts
Last Week played out precisely:- Monday's Weekly 50% level supported the market rising up into Tuesday's highs (3-day highs), followed by a larger DOWN trending day back into the Monthly 50% level...
Euro 3-day filter
This week started with the UP move from the Weekly 50% level and breaking Monday's highs , as part of the expectation of a test and 'sell' pattern on Tuesday....
Once Tuesday's lows broke, then the rest of the week was defined by the 5-day 50% level on the way down.
Next Week:- 5-day sideways pattern, but the Weekly 50% level and the 3-day high pattern can provide a further push down next week towards the Weekly lows.
But will probably swing back up from the Weekly lows, as the Monthly 50% level will provide major support until the end of the month.
FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 26th July 2008
GBP Weekly and Daily Charts.
GBP Range bound between the Quarterly and Monthly 50% levels, and will probably remain so until the end of next week.
We can see that price is in a 'Monthly' UP trend, as it's trading above the Monthly 50% levels, but the secondary trend remains bearish trading below the Quarterly 50% level.
If there is going to be a 2nd wave higher it would need to test the August 50% level and then rise higher.
Therefore next weeks expectation is more 5 day rotation, like what occurred this week.
"Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and the possibility that GBP could move as high as the Weekly highs next week.
Weaker pattern :- would be an UP move into the 3-day highs and then a trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level." (Previous Weekly report)
3-day pattern and filter
Last Week played out precisely, rising up on Monday from the Weekly 50% level, and then selling down from a higher Tuesday (3-day highs).
The rest of the week was pattern rotation using the 3-day filters of rotation and extension:- using both momentum trading from 50% levels outwards, and regressive patterns back towards the 3-day filters .
And I think next week will be the same.
- Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
FOREX AUD/USD 24th July 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day patternExpectation that Thursday would be a stalling day, but because Thursday didn't reverse UP higher enough, then I can't look for the next short trade down from Friday's 50% level.
There is no probability pattern on Friday:-
Friday lows support...
Friday's 50% level (3-day filter Yellow) resistance.
Next Probability pattern next week.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 25th July 2008
EURO Daily and 3-day patternEURO range bound on Thursday.
Friday:- there is no probability pattern on Friday, because Thursday didn't reverse up high enough to look for a continuation downward from a higher open on Friday from the 5-day 50% level.
Once again use the levels shown:- Friday support around the Weekly lows.
Next probability pattern next week.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
Forex AUD/USD 24th July 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
Past 3 days has play out precisely, but on Thursday there isn't a probability pattern.
The overall trend is to move down towards 92 cents, but it might take a couple of weeks to get there, and along the way there is going to be some UP days even in a reversal down-trend.
Once again there is an expectation that the AUD will come back and re-test Wednesday's break level, which matches the 5-day 50% level again.
I would look for the previous Weekly 50% level @ 9568 as some support, and a move back towards the break.
If the trend is going to continue down, then more than likely from a higher open on Friday.
Personally I would let Thursday trade out and then look for Friday for any continuation 'short' pattern down into the Weekly lows.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 24th July 2008
"Wednesday:- Expectation the prices are pushing down from the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level into Wednesday's lows (random support).
With a move back into July's 50% level @ 1.5683 more than likely."
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
With a move back into July's 50% level @ 1.5683 more than likely."
Yesterday's report
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro completes the down move into the monthly 50% level, but the pattern I was looking for was the rejection down from the 5-day 50% level (like AUD), but price didn't move higher enough.
Thursday:- I don't have a probability pattern for Thursday for day traders so it would be focus on the level and try and take small 41 pip chunks...
5-day 50% resistance
Weekly lows support
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 23rd July 2008 part 2
AUD daily and 3-day patternAS per previous report, expectation that downtrend would continue from the 5-day 50% level down into Wednesday's lows.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 23rd July 2008
Previous Weekly Report....
AUD hit 98 cents, and now the expectation is that the AUD over a number of weeks will try and unwind back down into 92 cents.
I would like to be short-trading the 3-day high....
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
AUD hit 98 cents, and now the expectation is that the AUD over a number of weeks will try and unwind back down into 92 cents.
I would like to be short-trading the 3-day high....
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
All my Weekly reports last weekend suggested that Monday would rise back into the 3-day highs, and once around those 3-day highs there was a probability pattern unfolding of a large trading day downward, which aligned with Tuesday's highs.
This played out precisely.
Wednesday:- 5-day 50% level resistance and look for a continuation down into Wednesday lows (random support)
Note:- the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide for a continuation down, but it also won't surprise me to see a 'pop' upwards into Tuesday's 50% level and then reversing down.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREx EUR/USD 23rd July 2008
"Next Week:- Weekly 50% level support once again, and if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level."....
Weekend Report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Weekend Report
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Even though Monday looked bullish with prices rising up from the Weekly 50% level, once trading around the 3-day highs on Tuesday there was a probability pattern unfolding once price dropped back under the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday.
Tuesday ended up with a large trending day down closing below the Weekly 50% level....
Wednesday:- Expectation the prices are pushing down from the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level into Wednesday's lows (random support).
With a move back into July's 50% level @ 1.5683 more than likely.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREx AUD/USD 22nd July 2008 part 2
AUD Daily and 3-day patternAs per Weekly Report and today's earlier report....
Expectation that price would continue higher from the 5-day 50% level up into Tuesday's highs and then sell down.
Expectation price is heading back towards the Weekly 50% level, but the reversal down into Tuesday's lows has a random support.
Probability to continue lower into Wednesday.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 22nd July 2008
"Euro rising up from the Weekly 50% level (support)
Normal price action around the 5-day 50% level is to push the Euro down 41 pips during euro trading hours.
If there is going to be a breakout UP towards the Weekly highs this week, it's going to have follow through during the US trading hours."
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Normal price action around the 5-day 50% level is to push the Euro down 41 pips during euro trading hours.
If there is going to be a breakout UP towards the Weekly highs this week, it's going to have follow through during the US trading hours."
Yesterday's report
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro rising up from the Weekly 50% level after the push down during GMT hours and breaking higher in US trading hours.
A position swing trader should partial exit on the break taking profits, whilst now holding longs UP into the Weekly highs (stops below Weekly 50% level)
Day traders use the 5-day 50% level as support.
Price action so far favours a rise UP into the Weekly highs this week.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREx AUD/USD 22nd July 2008
"Expectation that AUD is moving back down into the Weekly 50% level.
There is resistance around the 5-day 50% level and July's highs on Monday, but it's not a probability pattern because price is trading above the 3-day filter. (minimise exposure)
Ideally I would like to see price hit the 3-day highs (Monday) and then look for a push back down from a higher open on Tuesday..."
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
There is resistance around the 5-day 50% level and July's highs on Monday, but it's not a probability pattern because price is trading above the 3-day filter. (minimise exposure)
Ideally I would like to see price hit the 3-day highs (Monday) and then look for a push back down from a higher open on Tuesday..."
Yesterday's report
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
AUD rising UP on Monday, and Tuesday's highs align with my Weekly Report view and yesterday's pattern of 'selling' the 3-day high.
Tuesday's high is resistance and looking for a push back down into the 5-day 50% level.
Random length on Tuesday, but ideally would be a trending down day into Tuesday's lows.
Note: intra-day filter won't align with 'shorting' so it's high risk trading 'shorts' above Tuesday's highs
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 21st July 2008
"Next Week:- Weekly 50% level support once again,
Above the Weekly 50% level and also the 5-day 50% level, then traders should keep in mind that re-test of the Weekly highs is still a probability.
if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level..."
Weekly Report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Above the Weekly 50% level and also the 5-day 50% level, then traders should keep in mind that re-test of the Weekly highs is still a probability.
if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level..."
Weekly Report
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro rising up from the Weekly 50% level and moving into the 5-day 50% level and 3-day highs.
Normal price action around the 5-day 50% level is to push the Euro down 41 pips during euro trading hours.
If there is going to be a breakout UP towards the Weekly highs this week, it's going to have follow through during the US trading hours.
Bearish pattern is a sell off from the 5-day 50% level during the Euro hours and trading below the Weekly 50% level during US trading hours.
Weekly 50% level is the trend guide
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 21st July 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day patternExpectation that AUD is moving back down into the Weekly 50% level.
There is resistance around the 5-day 50% level and July's highs on Monday, but it's not a probability pattern because price is trading above the 3-day filter. (minimise exposure)
Ideally I would like to see price hit the 3-day highs (Monday) and then look for a push back down from a higher open on Tuesday.
Note: 5-day 50% level rejection and trading below the filter (brown) and I would look for a continuation down into Monday's lows, and a lower low on Tuesday matching the Weekly 50% level.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 19th July 2008
" Next Week:- Weekly highs resistance @ and look for a 2-3 day counter-trend move downwards into Support.
Weekly 50% level @ 1.5784 support."
Previous Weekly Report
Weekly 50% level @ 1.5784 support."
Previous Weekly Report
Euro Weekly and Daily charts
Euro moved up into the Weekly highs and then reversed down into the Weekly 50% level, as support.
Next Week:-
Need to factor in that the July highs is a resistance zone which could last the entire month until we get closer to the month of August, and then a shift in levels.
We also need to factor in that prices could reverse back down into the monthly 50% level, which might or might not happen.
Next Week:- Weekly 50% level support once again, and if price is going to continue down, then I would like to see a rejection and sell-off pattern from the 3-day highs, and a large trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level.
The 5-day 50% level next week will be of importance for any continuation down.
Above the Weekly 50% level and also the 5-day 50% level, then traders should keep in mind that re-test of the Weekly highs is still a probability (3-day highs)
Please refer to the daily reports for all your trading set-ups.
FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 19th July 2008
"Next Week:- More of the same of price rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level and then looking to move higher into 2.0102, which is currently a major resistance zone on the spread. (GBP/USD)"
Previous Weekly Report
GBP Weekly & Daily Reports
GBP moved up from the Weekly 50% level on Monday last week and continued higher into July's highs @ 2.0102.
Next Week:- Price looks to be range bound between July's highs and the Monthly 50% level.
Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and the possibility that GBP could move as high as the Weekly highs next week.
Weaker pattern :- would be an UP move into the 3-day highs and then a trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level.
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Previous Weekly Report
GBP Weekly & Daily Reports
GBP moved up from the Weekly 50% level on Monday last week and continued higher into July's highs @ 2.0102.
Next Week:- Price looks to be range bound between July's highs and the Monthly 50% level.
Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and the possibility that GBP could move as high as the Weekly highs next week.
Weaker pattern :- would be an UP move into the 3-day highs and then a trending down day closing below the Weekly 50% level.
- Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 19th July 2008
"Expectation AUD is moving up towards 98+ cents in the next Quarter (5th July)
Next Week: push up into the Weekly highs, which match July's highs, and then look for the usual rotation back down into the timeframe 50% levels." (12 July)
Previous Weekly Reports
AUD Weekly and Daily charts
AUD hit 98 cents, and now the expectation is that the AUD over a number of weeks will try and unwind back down into 92 cents.
The first stage of any reversal will be price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
Next Week:- There is bound to be some support around the Weekly 50% level, but I would like to be short-trading the 3-day highs looking for any break of the Weekly 50% level.
Please Refer to the Daily reports each day for trading set-ups...
Next Week: push up into the Weekly highs, which match July's highs, and then look for the usual rotation back down into the timeframe 50% levels." (12 July)
Previous Weekly Reports
AUD Weekly and Daily chartsAUD hit 98 cents, and now the expectation is that the AUD over a number of weeks will try and unwind back down into 92 cents.
The first stage of any reversal will be price trading below the Weekly 50% level.
Next Week:- There is bound to be some support around the Weekly 50% level, but I would like to be short-trading the 3-day highs looking for any break of the Weekly 50% level.
Please Refer to the Daily reports each day for trading set-ups...
FOREX EUR/USD 18th July 2008
"Euro has continued down into Wednesday's lows and probably hit Thursday's low, which coincides with the rotation down into the weekly 50%.
As pointed out in yesterday's report... if looking to go long, then a lower Daily open and back into the 5-day 50% level..."
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
As pointed out in yesterday's report... if looking to go long, then a lower Daily open and back into the 5-day 50% level..."
Yesterday's report
Euro Daily & 3-day pattern
Euro capped below the 5-day 50% level most of the day, and then pushing down into the Weekly 50% level finding support.
Friday:- no probability pattern for Friday based on the price action.
Bounce off the Weekly 50% level can send the market higher on Friday ( UP Random length)
But looking at the intra-day filters and trading below the 5-day 50% it doesn't help.
Use Friday lows (support) as a trend guide for intra-day trading.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 18th July 2008
"Thursday:- In that case, use the 3-day filter to trade any bounce off the 5-day 50% level on Thursday back towards Thursday's highs. (probability pattern)
If price is pushing down from the filter and below the 5-day 50% level, and also below the Weekly highs, then there is a potential reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, as it moves down towards Thursday's lows...."
Yesterday's report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
If price is pushing down from the filter and below the 5-day 50% level, and also below the Weekly highs, then there is a potential reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, as it moves down towards Thursday's lows...."
Yesterday's report
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
AUD found some early support on Thursday, but then continued down, and is now trading below the 5-day 50% level.
As per Yesterday's report, and also the Weekly report...
Break of the Weekly highs and expectation is price is rotating back down into the Weekly 50% level.
Friday: there haven't too many down day's on Friday recently, but we need to trade on the side of the July highs (Trading below)
Simply trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level, I would like to think it could continue down, but being Friday who knows......
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX Eur/USD 17th July 2008
"Wednesday:- Look for a continuation down into the Weekly 50% level using Wednesday's lows as support.
As pointed out in the Weekly report :- "support should be verified by a down day and then to minimise risk trade longs from a lower open the next day"
Yesterday's Report.
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
As pointed out in the Weekly report :- "support should be verified by a down day and then to minimise risk trade longs from a lower open the next day"
Yesterday's Report.
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro has continued down into Wednesday's lows and probably hit Thursday's low, which coincides with the rotation down into the weekly 50%.
As pointed out in yesterday's report... if looking to go long, then a lower Daily open and back into the 5-day 50% level...
high risk trading longs below Thursday's low
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 17th July 2008
"AUD has reach the tops in July-September.
Normally when price hits these highs I would look for a reversal back down, as was the case in March this year.
However, in the Daily chart we have a breakout of the Weekly highs, which often will support price for the next few days until the end of the week.... "
Yesterday's Report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Normally when price hits these highs I would look for a reversal back down, as was the case in March this year.
However, in the Daily chart we have a breakout of the Weekly highs, which often will support price for the next few days until the end of the week.... "
Yesterday's Report
AUD Daily and 3-day pattern
AUD rotated back down into the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday.
Even though I have a view that the AUD 'could' reverse down from Monday's highs (previous report), there is still the probability that price can remain above the Weekly highs for the rest of this week because of the 'breakout'.
Today:- In that case, use the 3-day filter to trade any bounce off the 5-day 50% level on Thursday back towards Thursday's highs. (probability pattern)
If price is pushing down from the filter and below the 5-day 50% level, and also below the Weekly highs, then there is a potential reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, as it moves down towards Thursday's lows... (non probability pattern, but potential pattern to follow)
Note: A 'probability pattern' is based on the 3-day pattern that coincides with the higher timeframe 'Model.
A potential pattern (non probability) is using the exact same levels, but is 'thrusting' in the opposite direction, which traders can still profit by, or minimise risk by not trading against the current daily trend.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 16th July 2008
Euro Daily and 3-day patternEuro pushed higher on Tuesday (brown filter) back towards the highs, hitting the Weekly highs and reversing back down.
Wednesday:-
Look for a continuation down into the Weekly 50% level using Wednesday's lows as support.
As pointed out in the Weekly report :-
"support should be verified by a down day and then to minimise risk trade longs from a lower open the next day"
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 16th July 2008
AUD/USD Weekly and Daily charts.
AUD has reach the tops in July-September.
Normally when price hits these highs I would look for a reversal back down, as was the case in March this year.
However, in the Daily chart we have a breakout of the Weekly highs, which often will support price for the next few days until the end of the week.
Ideally I wanted price to come down into the Weekly 50% level this week and then trade the UP move, but it that didn't play out.
Therefore the rest of the week is view as range bound but supported above the breakout of the Weekly highs.
AUD 3-day pattern
I was looking for a reversal down on Tuesday into the 5-day 50% level, but that wasn't helped by price remaining above the intra-day filter (brown).
Wednesday:- No probability pattern:-
Often a breakout of Tuesday will push higher into Wednesday, and ideally from the 5-day 50% level upwards.
Range:- Wednesday's highs and 5-day 50% level, as shown..
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 15th July 2008
"Expectation that price is coming back down to re-test the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-3 days, and then look for a continuation higher
Monday:- Any reversal down on Monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.
5-day 50% level on Monday is random support....."
Yesterday's Report
Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT
Monday:- Any reversal down on Monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.
5-day 50% level on Monday is random support....."
Yesterday's Report
Euro Daily and 3-day pattern
Euro pushed up on Monday but fell short of the 3-day high, reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level.
Tuesday:- There is no probability pattern.
The expectation is that price is rotating back down into the Weekly 50% level, which should align with Tuesday's lows (support).
However, price might push back into Tuesday's highs once again because of the 5-day 50% level support on Monday.
Note:- judge Tuesday's intra-day trend with the 3-day filter (brown), but also use the previous Weeky high @ 1.5933
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX AUD/USD 15th July 2008
Monday: "Any reversal down I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level"
Yesterday's report
AUD Daily & 3-day pattern
AUD pushed higher on Monday and stalling around the highs.
Expectation that with the Weekly highs, along with my view yesterday of reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level from these highs, that's how i'm treating Tuesday's trading.
High Risk trading shorts above the Weekly highs .9737
Note: potential reversal down in this 5-day pattern is back into the Weekly 50% level, but for Tuesday, the downside reversal is back towards the 5-day 50% level.
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD 14th July 2008
Euro Daily and 3-day patternPlease read the daily report before proceeding....
http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/07/forex-eurusd-weekly-12th-july-2008.html
Expectation that price is coming back down to re-test the Weekly 50% level over the next 2-3 days, and then look for a continuation higher
Monday:-
Any reversal down on Monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.5-day 50% level on Monday is random support....."support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open
FOREX AUD/USD 14th July 2008
AUD Daily and 3-day patternPlease Read the Weekend report before proceeding.....
http://forexspread.blogspot.com/2008/07/forex-audusd-weekly-12th-july-08.html
Monday: Any reversal down on monday I would like to see the 3-day highs hit and then begin a rotation back down into the 5-day 50% level.
5-day 50% level on Monday is random support.....
"support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open"
- All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT
FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 12th July 2008
In an UP trending market, there is an expectation that a lower Weekly close into higher timeframe 50% levels can begin a 'thrust' pattern Upwards, as prices rise up from a lower Weekly open next week.
A lower weekly close verifies support, and a lower weekly open rising upwards is confirming the trend within this currently monthly timeframe.
If that is the case then my expectation is prices are moving towards 1.6034, over the next 3 weeks.
Previous Weekly Report
A lower weekly close verifies support, and a lower weekly open rising upwards is confirming the trend within this currently monthly timeframe.
If that is the case then my expectation is prices are moving towards 1.6034, over the next 3 weeks.
Previous Weekly Report
Euro Weekly and daily charts
Euro continues higher into Friday, and expectation that price is moving up into July's highs.
Next Week:- Weekly highs resistance @ and look for a 2-3 day counter-trend move downwards into Support.
Weekly 50% level @ 1.5784 support.
Note: support should be verified by a lower Daily close, and then rising higher from a lower daily open
FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 12th July 08
"Expectation AUD is moving up towards 98+ cents in the next Quarter, and the Weekly 50% level 95.40 is the trend guide within the 5-day pattern on the way up.
3 weeks up (higher closes) can often form 'drops' in the 4th Weekly timeframe, so there is a potential next week of a reversal down within the 5-day pattern, but that usually happens on Thursday.
Therefore a higher 3-day filter is going to be a perfect set-up on any reversal downwards"
Previous Weekly Report
3 weeks up (higher closes) can often form 'drops' in the 4th Weekly timeframe, so there is a potential next week of a reversal down within the 5-day pattern, but that usually happens on Thursday.
Therefore a higher 3-day filter is going to be a perfect set-up on any reversal downwards"
Previous Weekly Report
AUD Weekly and Daily
AUD reversed down into the Weekly 50% level on Monday, found support confirmed with a 'hook' day on Wednesday, and then continued up towards 98 cents into Friday.
AUD 3-day pattern
It started with the sell off on Monday using the 3-day filter with the view that price was coming back into the Weekly 50% level.
As pointed out in the Wednesday Report, expectation of higher prices into the 3-day filter again, but for Thursday to reverse back down, as part of the Weekly 'drop' pattern.
Instead Thursday broke higher, and Friday continued with the trend towards 98 cents.
Next Week: push up into the Weekly highs, which match July's highs, and then look for the usual rotation back down into the timeframe 50% levels.
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