1st December08 AUD & EUR/USD part 3

AUD 3-day pattern 16:07

3pm support but no probability pattern on Monday...

So far there is a fake break on Monday's lows, but it's below a number of timeframe 50% levels.

Long 6470 partial exit 6482 + 12

Stops 6465

target 41 pips and exit.


EURO 16:09

I'm looking for a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level to re-test the breakout.

3pm buying support has pushed above 1.2670...

Long off spiral @ 1.2665 partial exit 1.2686 + 21

Stops 1.2660

target 1.2770 and exit

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Both AUD and Euro stopped -5 pips/ -5 pips

1st December08 AUD & EUR/USD part 2

AUD 15:00

AUD pushed down early on Monday, but at this stage looks like a 'false break'.

Hook pattern this morning over the pink sent the AUD down...

And now a Hook pattern back above pink @ 6470, could find buying support over the next 4 hours.

too slow to react on these patterns today

on sidelines....

1st December 2008 AUD & EUR/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 11:20

AUD opening below the Weekly 50% level and the December balance point.

It's also pushing down from the filters.

At this stage the bias is to continue down, but any down move needs to be trading below the 5-day 50% level and breaking Monday's lows, to confirm a move down towards December's lows in over the next 2 weeks.



EURO 11:20

Bearish on the Euro, but because of the breakout of Friday's lows, there is an expectation of price moving back towards the 5-day 50% level:- retest the break.

Trade on the side of the blue 3-day midpoint... 1.2670

Currently price is trading below the Spiral filters, therefore trading longs at this stage is open to risk...

Weekly Forex Reports 29th November 2008

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD

Read below

AUD/USD 29th Nov 2008 Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

With the AUD trading above the Weekly 50% level this week, I would have liked to have seen further gains towards the Weekly highs.

The past 5-days doesn't give any clues on the early direction of the AUD in December.

Ideally I would still like to see the AUD move towards the 3-week highs:- resistance and then reverse down.

What we also notice is the shift in the monthly balance point in November from above (resistance) to matching in December.

If price is above this December BP, then the expectation is that over the next 4 weeks the AUD will consolidate in a tight trading band, which will result in Higher weekly closes followed by lower Weekly closes.

The trading range will probably remain supported between the December BP and the December's 50% level.

However, below the December balance point and the AUD can push down into December's lows.




AUD 3-day pattern

The past 5 days played out similar patterns of pushing down into the previous day's support and then closing higher.

That price action doesn't give any clues on which direction the AUD will go.

Basically the breakout of the 3-day range will let traders know which way the AUD will go in early December.

If there are any clues on the direction then maybe the Euro's price action is hinting a continuation downward early next week...... (read Below)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

EUR/USD 29th Nov 2008 Weekly

Euro Monthly and Weekly

This week has seen the Euro rally into the Weekly highs which matched the November balance point:- Resistance.

Once price reached the highs early on Tuesday, there was an expectation that price had to come back down and retest the Weekly 50% level:- this has now occured.

What we also notice is the shift in the monthly balance point in November from above (resistance) to matching in December.

If price is above this December BP, then the expectation is that over the next 4 weeks the Euro will consolidate in a tight trading band, which will result in Higher weekly closes followed by lower Weekly closes.

The trading range will probably remain supported between the December BP and the Decembers 50% level.

However, below the December balance point and the Euro can push down into December's lows.


Euro 3-day pattern

And what we notice on Friday is actually a breakout of the 3-day range, which favours further down moves :- breakout & resistance @ 5-day 50% level.

In conclusion:- at this stage based on a number of patterns and Friday's breakout, I favour a down move early December.

That can obviously change if Monday moves down, but Tuesday reverses upwards and 'HOOK's above the Weekly and Monthly BP, which will favour a higher Friday close.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

GBP/USD 29th Nov 2008 Weekly

GBP Monthly and Weekly

November lows support with the expectation that price is moving higher early next week.

Expectation that GBP is moving towards the Weekly highs:- resistance.

Once price meets the Weekly highs, then the potential to continue back down into December's low is a strong possibility over the next couple of weeks

Weekly 50% level the trend guide.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD 3-day pattern 9:45

Continuation from the morning report....

Each daily pattern this week has seen early selling pressure during the Asian timezone.

Each low in the trading day has conincided with the previous day's 3-day mid-point (LSquare) dark blue.

If the same pattern is going to play out on Friday, then there is a probability of a push down towards 6509....

Friday's support 6509

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:45am

Expectation of higher prices this week on AUD, with the potential of the AUD moving towards the Weekly highs.

Even though Thursday closed higher, I would have preferred Thursday to have continued towards the highs (6691), as it gives move room for intra-day patterns on Friday.

Looking at the levels on Friday, the only conclusion I can make is that the 3-day high breakout on Thursday @ 6554 and the blue level becomes a support for Friday and price moves higher.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation that Thursday would be a consolidating trading day has played out, and Friday could end up being the same.

My view is that the Euro is trying to drift back down into the Weekly 50% level, which could align early next week, and then could push higher as it looks to move towards the December 50% levels.

However above the blue filter on Friday and price has a random length, and there is no resistance until the 3-day filter high.

Trade on the side of the blue filter on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 5

AUD 14:45

Hard to see any buying support at this stage, with the drop below support levels coming into 3pm...

Stopped 6510 -5

It was a higher risk trade on Longs, and at this stage the expectation is that the AUD is moving down towards the 5-day 50% level... or at least pink to pink....

on sidelines

27th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

AUD 12:49

AUD has bounced off 6513 and went as high as 6539, nearly hititng my first exit zone @ 6542

partial exit 6525 + 10

Stops 6510 -5

all I need is to see an R41 hook above the pink filter @ 6533 and should get more buying.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

EURO 12:49:-

Exit @ 1.2925 + 45



On sidelines.....

27th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

AUD 11:50

AUD trading in between the 3-day filter and brown filter random support.

Price is pushing down from the pink filter ;- random resistance, and from a higher 4hour timeframe.

Long 6515

Stops 6505

now everything about going long is against me using the patterns, as describe.

It probably has much more chance of going higher from a lower 4 hour bar and rising upwards confirmed with a break of the 3-day filter....

or either using the brown filter as support from 3pm, or a lower spiral point rejection pattern.


high risk trade:-- looking to partial exit @ 6542 and hold....

For a 10 pip stop the risk-reward is warranted, if price breaks higher as price could go as high as Thursday's channel highs @ 6660-91

But i'll probably get stopped out.

27th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

EURO 11:05

I have no probaiblity pattern on the Euro for thursday...

It's either going to fail at the brown filter a move down towards Thursday's 50% 5-day 50% level, or continue back towards the blue filter @ 1.2952 and higher.

Long 1.2880 partial exit 1.2902 + 22

Trailing stops 1.2876 -4.

Price is rsing up from the pink filter which is above the brown filter, so hopefully it should continue higher:- holding pink to pink

or 1.2950

27th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation that the AUD is heading higher this week, and could move as far as .69+ by Friday.

Weekly 50% level support on Wednesday and pushing higher towards the 3-day filter.

Normally the 3-day filter is used as a resistance zone and a 'sell' pattern, but at this stage that could be less likely.

Blue filter support, any breakout above Thursday's 3-day filter and price is heading towards Thursday's highs

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Yesterday's view was to reverse down from the Weekly highs and move back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Basically the entire week's set-up has played out, and for the next two day's my view is the Euro is going to consolidate.

This week's expectation was to continue higher into the Weekly highs, stall and reverse back down. That's happen now therefore I won't have a probability pattern until next week.

Thursday:- If the AUD is going to go higher this could drag the Euro higher also, especially if price is trading above the blue filter.

But at this stage any continuation higher and I would look for price to re-test the Weekly 50% level, which could be this week's but more likely next week's 50% level:- 2-day consolidation pattern.

Use the spiral filters

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 5

Euro 14:25

Exit pink to pink @ 1.2955 +110

Expectation of a continuation of a down day into the 5-day 50% level, but with this pattern it could attract some buying of the next 4 hours back into the brown filter...

or it just continues down...

26th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

Euro 14:52

Exitting pink to pink @ 1.2953 + 112 pips

Coming into 3pm could see some support off the blue filter, which could attract some buying support.

IF Euro doesn't move down into my exit zone and swings up, then moving my trailing stops to 1.3040 (+25)

and holding down into the 5-day 50% level @ 1.2855

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Euro 16:16

Exit 1.2955 + 110

26th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

AUD 12:03

As pointed out in this mornings report, I have differing views on both the AUD and Euro.

AUD Weekly support and brown filter support...

Long .6457 partial exit .6484 + 27

Two probabilities for this 4 hour timeframe....

either the AUD moves up 41 pips resulting in a HOOK above the filters and a continuation upwards into the 3-day high...

or...

it completes the R41 range @ .6494 and reverses down, as it's trading below the intra-day filters and looks to be moving back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Holding AUD (breakeven entry stops)

Holding for 3 day high or pink to pink on the upside....

26th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

Euro 11:12

Expectation that Weekly highs would reverse back down...

Short 1.3065 partial exit 1.3015 + 50

breakeven stops from entry and holding....

Exit 1.2850

26th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:40

Expectation currencies are moving higher this week, as prices rise up from November's lows and back into the December 50% levels.

Tuesday:- Early selling pressure on Tuesday, which ended up bouncing off the Weekly balance point and then rallying to the 3-day filter.

Today:- bias is to contnue higher towards the Weekly Highs.

Trend guide is the blue/brown filters

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Euro has completed the move back towards the Weekly highs, and this is my resistance zone.

Today:- The only set-up I have is a higher Wednesday open and look for a move back down to retest the Weekly 50% level this week.

3-day high filter is the trend guide for a move back towards the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday.

In conclusion:- normally currencies move in unison together, however today I favour AUD rising and the Euro reversing down simply based on price action.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

AUD 15:25

AUD continues down into the 5-day 50% level:- random support in the first 4 hour period.

No spiral filters to trade any longs

on sidelines.

Euro 15:25

Covered on 4 hour close @ 1.2830 + 60

no more forex trading today

25th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

AUD 14:27

AUD pushing down towards the 5-day 50% level.....

Haven't traded AUD because of the expectation that AUD is moving down into this 4 hour period, but not providing the ideal 'short' set-up to get into the trade...

Unlike the Euro....

Euro:- Pusihng down along with Spiral set-up

Short 1.2890 partial exit 1.2853 + 37

Holding for double or 1.2803 and exit (3-day filter).

25th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD 11:05

AUD Stalled at Monday's 3-day filter and pushed down...

The break of the brown filter and I wanted to short trade the same pattern as yesterday @ .6523 but it didn't re-test the break

At this stage it's a Monday breakout and whilst price is above 6492 the expectation is that the AUD is heading higher....

Below 6492 and it's down into the 5-day 50% level...

At this stage there is no spiral filter to go long from...

On sidelines and won't short trade .6523 on any bounce.

25th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 8:30am

Last week of the Month along with Monday's UP day suggest that currencies and Index markets are rotating up off their November lows and moving back towards their December 50% levels next week.

There has been a HOOK pattern above the Weekly 50% levels, which suggests higher prices by Friday.

However I would like to see Tuesday come down and retest the Weekly 50% level, before continuing higher from Wednesday.

5-day 50% level, and looks to be moving towards Tuesday's highs:- random resistance.

EURO Monthly and Weekly

Last week of the Month along with Monday's UP day suggest that currencies and Index markets are rotating up off their November lows and moving back towards their December 50% levels next week.

There has been a HOOK pattern above the Weekly 50% levels, which suggests higher prices by Friday.

However I would like to see Tuesday come down and retest the Weekly 50% level, before continuing higher from Wednesday.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly highs and monthly balance point resistance, with price to come back and retest the Weekly 50% level.

5-day 50% level Support on Tuesday

Tuesday's highs resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 5

AUD 14:02

Re-added shorts 6286 partial exit 6269 + 17

Stops 6293

Target pink to pink...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

AUD 15:35

Stopped 6293 - 7

No more trading today.

24th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

AUD 13:45

AUD swings up into pink filter with the expectation that price is continuing down.

Re-entered shorts @ 6286 partial exit 6250 + 36

holding pink to pink

( trailing Stops 6294 -8)




Euro 13:45

Euro short @ 1.2616

brown filter and spiral top

Stops 1.2625

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Stopped 1.2625 -9

24th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

AUD 12:25

Exit 6250 + 74

I was going to hold pink to pink, but with the AUD moving down 4x41 bars in a row, it's due for at least a R41 reversal upwards..

24th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD 11:48

AUD pushed down from the 5-day 50% level, and hopefully continue down into Monday's lows @ .6141.

Short 6324 partial exit 6288 + 36

holding next pink to pink or .6195

Stops trailing entry price.

24th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day patttern 10:50

Whilst price is trading below the Weekly 50% level, the expectation is to continue down.

Simply trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level on Monday...




Euro:-

Trade on the side of the 3-day filter...

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

AUD/USD 22nd Nov 2008 Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD trading in a 4th Quarter breakout, with the expectation that price will continue down in December to form a double bottom since the breakout of the 4th Quarter lows in October.

Currently November's lows haven't reached, and next Week's 50% level is once again the trend guide.

In the short-term:- Weekly 50% level is the trend guide, & coming into the last week of the month might attract some upside move from Wednesday as it looks to move towards the December balance point before it continues down into lower lows from next month.

At this stage I don't have a view for the last week of November other than use the same patterns in the 5-day range.

AUD 3-day pattern


Thursday breakout, but Friday didn't continue down from the 5-day 50% level, instead moving back into the breakout level and stalling.

Next Week:- I would think that the AUD would continue down to complete the breakout pattern:- either from the 5-day 50% level or most probably the 3-day filter on Monday.


Personally, this was probably the worse week on Forex trading during the Asian timezone I can remember.

Most currencies weren't moving during my timezone until well into GMT trading hours, and most of the robust sell patterns occured in the US timezone.

And on 2 occassions my trades were stopped out only to see the AUD move over 90 pips in the direction.

6 trades

1 winner 36
5 losses 42

EUR/USD 22nd Nov 2008 Weekly

EURO Monthly and Weekly

Euro trading in a 4th Quarter breakout, with the expectation that price will continue down in December to form a double bottom since the breakout of the 4th Quarter lows in October.

Currently November's lows haven't reached, and next Week's 50% level is once again the trend guide.

In the short-term:- Weekly 50% level is the trend guide, & coming into the last week of the month might attract some upside move from Wednesday as it looks to move towards the December balance point before it continues down into lower lows from next month.

At this stage I don't have a view for the last week of November other than use the same patterns in the 5-day range.

4 Trades

3 winners 77
1 loss -9


This week was terrible for forex trading during Asian timezone, as most currencies didn't move until well into GMT trading hours, and most of the robust sell patterns occured in the US timezone.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

GBP/USD 22nd Nov 2008 Weekly

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP trading around November's lows with the eexpectation that price will continue down in December to form a double bottom since the breakout of the 4th Quarter lows.

In the short-term:- Weekly 50% level is the trend guidecoming into the last week of the month might attract and upside move from Wednesday as it looks to move towards the December balance point before it continues down into lower lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 3

AUD 15:20

Short looking for 1x 41 pip reversal down into brown filter before it continued higher.

short 6189 stopped 6197 -8

21th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 2

AUD 14:20

AUD looks to be moving back into the 5-day 50% level.

Random resistance around 6186-92, which could push AUD down 1x41 bars, but i think it's going to push back into the 5-day 50% level.


EURO:- 14:30

spiral top @ 1.2463 and normally I would take the short here, but it's coming into 3pm.

next 4 hours is defined by brown filter @ 1.2475...

21th November 2008 AUD, EURO Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern 7:40am

AUD continues down into the Weekly lows and probably hit the November lows next week, if not Friday.

Thursday:- expectation of weakness down into Thursday's lows, resulting in a breakout, as part of the higher timeframe drive down.

Friday:- expectation that the AUD will continue down into Friday's lows.

Use the brown filter for the trend guide...

2 probability patterns:- either it continues down, or often the case will retest the breakout (5-day 50% level) and then continue down.

Weekly and Friday's lows random support.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same epxectation as the AUD....

Brown and blue filter is the trend guide.

Target is Friday's lows, but if the Euro follows the same path down into the Weekly lows, then Friday's lows will probably not hold.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th November 2008 AUD, EURO part 4

AUD & Euro 15:45

AUD continues down as it heads towards Thursday's lows, and Euro has a Wednesday breakout with expectation of further weakness.

I had to step out over lunch that I didn't hop back into the AUD trade...bummer.