31 December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Being the last day of a number of timeframes, next week's open in relation to those level in January is what we should focus on.

At this stage no probability pattern for Thursday.

Euro Weekly and R85 spiral.

At this stage the euro looks to be moving lower in the first week of January, whilst being supported in December, as price remains below 1.4417 (Quarterly BP)

The only confirming pattern of moving towards the January 50% level would be to see the R85 close above 1.4388, and then this becomes support.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30 December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral pattern.

Spiral top formed on Tuesday and continued higher 85 points.

The market is now trading around the December 50% level and also the Weekly 50% levels.

This is either going to result in a higher daily open and swing down on Wednesday (next day after the change of the 3-day cycle).

Or, because of the R85 range( breakout above the highs)...whilst above 89.38 the AUD should continue to move upwards and complete the next R85 range and move into the next day's highs.

Note:- if that happens then by Thursday the AUD could be trading back around the Weekly highs @ 91.49, as price is back above the higher timeframe 50% level.

Key trend guide on Wednesday is 89.38 along with the December 50% level @ 89.40

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

2nd day stall and 5-day 50% level support.

As per Yesterday's report, this price action can lead to a move upwards on Wednesday, but that will need to be confirmed by a 4 hour close above the red 3-day filter, and towards the January 50% level (higher Weekly close)

The only concern about how far Euro move upwards, is the Quarterly 50% level @ 1.4417, as this could act as a resistance level for the next 2-days.

If Wednesday is below the 5-day 50% level, then the bias is to follow the move back down.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29 December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on Monday's price action I would have to favour a continuation of a move down 85 points from the 50% level.

If short I would continue to hold, with a potential move down towards the Weekly lows this week.

Note:- it's not a spiral point...

That means Tuesday can move up into 88.94 and then the rest of Tuesday will be defined by this level:- double R85 points down over the next 2-days.

Above 88.94 and price is moving upwards and back towards the Weekly 50% level, which is part of a rotation back towards the January 50% level and start of the new Month, Quarter and Year.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage the expectation that Monday's Yellow highs should continue back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Around the 5-day 50% level becomes a random pattern:- breaks and continues down into the 5-day lows by Tuesday...

or support and a choppy trading day as part of a 2nd day 'stall' pattern, and then continues higher on Wednesday.

There is still a possibility that there can be an UP move this week, as price goes looking for the new month 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28 December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

The Trend is down and expectation price is heading lower in the first Quarter.

Resistance 50% level and R85 spiral top.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Trading below 1.4417 (quarterly balance point) and the high on Friday suggests that the next two days are not going to rise higher than Friday.

That could mean more sideways price action or price can end up down around the 5-day lows on Tuesday.

26 Dec 09,USD AUD, Euro GBP Daily

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

At this stage it might take another week of a 5-day sideways pattern before the next trend develops.

If the following week closes above the December highs, then there is a high probability pattern that will push January upwards and towards the 2010 50% level.

AUD monthly and Weekly

Next trend will develop after 1 more week, there fore next week is viewed as short-term trading within the 5-day range.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

5-day 50% level cross-over on Thursday sent the euro into the 5-day high but also below 1.4417.

At this stage next week can remain below 1.4417.

If above 1.4417 then the view is a move back towards the Weekly 50% level, but my hunch is a 5-day pattern below 1.4417.

GBP monthly and Weekly

Expectation of more weakness in December...

either early next week or from the 50% levels the week after and most likely to continue down in January.

24 December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Above the 5-day 50% levels and expectation price is moving towards the 5-day highs, which is the Quarterly 50% level @ 1.4417 (resistance)


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

If AUD is going to follow a similar pattern, price needs to be trading above the 5-day 5% level and 3-day filter

23rd December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Monthly and weekly

Random support around the Weekly lows (5-day lows Wednesday).

However, there is a larger trend that's sending the AUD back towards the December lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The trend continues to follow the higher timeframe patterns lower, and it won't change until price is above the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD monthly and Weekly

Monday's push down towards the Weekly lows.

Weekly lows are random support levels, because there is a larger timeframe pattern that's trying to send the AUD down into the December lows @ $84.15 to 85-.74

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

lower Weekly open and December's lows has failed to push to Euro upwards, and is now following the Weekly timeframe range down towards 1.4188- 1.4142.

And any potential support levels in the euro , and I would have to think that it will struggle to rise higher than 1.4417 for the rest of this Quarter.

5-day lows random support on Tuesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st December 09, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the Weekly close and Thursday's 5-day breakout, I would have to favour that Monday is push down into the 5-day lows.

There's no higher timeframe support levels that favour a move upwards on Monday.

Monthly 50% level @ 89.40 and 5-day 50% levels are the trend guides.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the price action around the December lows and Friday's 5-day pattern....

I would favour a move upwards, as part of a 2-day counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

Yellow levels are the trend guides

19th Dec09 USD, AUD, Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index Monthly & Weekly

Around this week's higher weekly close and higher timeframe resistance levels I would have to favour a rotation back down into the 50% levels in the first quarter and then most likely continue higher.



AUD monthly and Weekly

Bearish but an expectation that price should swing back into the Weekly 50% levels...

and most likely remain below the December 50% levels until the end of the year.



Euro monthly and Weekly

Around December support levels, but price needs to get back above 1.4417 if there's going to be any rotation upwards.

I would keep and eye on the 5-day patterns and 5-day 50% level for a short-term reversal pattern back towards the Weekly 50% level (5-day highs)

GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP below 1.6240 which is bearish....

I would keep an eye out for any 2-day reversal patterns that fail to close above that level for a potential move downward.

If the USD index rotates down, then GBP will rise, but will probably be 'choppy' until the end of the year.

18th December 09 USD, AUD, Euro Daily

USD Index Quarterly and monthly

USD Index completes the swing into the Quarterly 50% level and also December's highs.

At this stage there is a 2-pattern play for 2010, either price hits ressitance and continues back down.

Or what may occur is price stalls and drifts lower and then continues towards the 2010 50% level.

Therefore the UP trend might come to a stop, and the down trend in currenices might come to a stop in the sohr-term but continue lower in the first quarter.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD has more to fall if it follow the December 50% level break and continuation down into 85.74



Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro has hit December lows, and if this vaild support then Friday should stablise and then swing upwards next week.

for that UP move to occur I would let Friday close, and then use 1.4417 as support and a lower weekly open to get a swing back towards the Weekly 50% level, which will match the January 50% level.

If that occurs, then Euro could end with another leg down in the first quarter, which the USD index continues upwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Wednesday's 5-day breakout I would view the trend continuing down into the December 50% level, which matches the Thursday lows

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Current Weekly support on the lows, but i'm expecting the trend to continue lower.

Quarterly 50% level @ 1.4417, would be the first higher timeframe support that I feel would provide the best possible level for a 3-5 day counter-trend rally

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage the AUD should continue down into December's 50% levels.

Yesterday's higher daily open and 3 day filter down move should remain in a downward trend using the 5-day 50% levels and 3-week 50% level as resistance.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro completes the move down into the Weekly lows, which could result in a counter-trend move back upwards.

However, because of the 5-day breakout on Tuesday, at this stage I have to view Wednesday as continuing lower

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

Lower Weekly open and currencies have moved up from their Friday lows, but not from any higher timeframe support levels, whilst at the same time the USD Index is doing the exact opposite:- higher weekly open and 2-day reversal pattern.

At this stage I'm treating currencies as short-term reversal patterns, simply because of the expectation that the USD index will continue higher.

AUD & Euro Weekly

AUD back above higher timeframe 50% levels and 5-day 50% levels, whilst the Euro is far weaker, with the expectation price will continue down into the Weekly lows and December lows.

However, at this stage a 2-day reversal pattern can take the Euro back towards the Weekly 50% levels, whilst the AUD can move upwards.

AUD 5-day and spiral filter.

The trend guide is the 5-day 50% level on tuesday, which could result in a continuation upwards, as price is trading above the Weekly 50% levels,

However, because it's a higher daily open I would continue to use the 3-day filter (yellow) as a 4 hour reversal (41 pip) pattern, and see where price ends up by the time the US time zone catches up

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter.

If the trend is going to continue down, then the most logical level would be the 5-day 50% level and down into Tuesday's lows, and should breakout.

If price is above the red filter coming into the GMT-US timezone, then Tuesday will be part of the 2nd day reversal pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, below the 50% levels and bias is to continue down

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro moving lower and with Friday's breakout should continue down into Monday's lows.

Hard to get back into the trend unless there is a 2 day counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

5th Dec 2009 AUD Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

USD dollar index and change of trend is going to push currencies lower.

It's the first change of trend in 9 months, and the index should continue to move towards the December highs.

Once that occurs there are two patterns in play....

Price can continue higher in the first Quarter towards the Yearly 50% level.

Or price is going to hit the 50% level and December highs in the 4th Quarter and then continue down in the first Quarter.

In the mean time the short-term trend is expected to continue upwards.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD has remained in a tight trading week, and next week's 50% levels are the key for any direction change.

If Monday is below the Weekly 50% levels, then it could be a good idea to hold positions for a move down into December's lows.

If price is breaking the 3-day cycle high, then AUD remains well supported in the 4th Quarter.

We just need to see the December 50% level fail

Euro Monthly and Weekly

This week saw major support levels break and the continuation down helped by Friday's 5-day 50% level rejection pattern.

At this stage i'm expecting the trend to continue down.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP trading below the December 50% levels, and price should continue to move lower.

11th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

short-term bearish pattern in the AUD failed with Thursday's JOB data pushing price back above the key levels in the market.

Whilst price is above those levels the expectation is that the trend will continue higher.

However, there are two patterns that need to be optimised for Friday's trading.

'Weekly' drop patterns often favour a lower Friday close.

And Thursday's trading is still in a 3-day 'sell' cycle.

At this stage I don't know if the Trend will continue higher, or it's simply a 2-day counter-trend back into the 3-day cycle and the trend continues lower on Friday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is nothing to suggest the Euro will rise higher on Friday.

It's below key levels in the market and Friday's 5-day 50% level can easily send price lower.

USD dollar index is above the 3-week highs and Monthly 50% level, which has been key resistance levels for over 9-months, and this should continue to move higher whilst currencies continue lower... as each goes looking for their Yearly 50% levels in 2010

However, if Euro ends up back above the December 50% level and red filter then it could end up rallying in a higher Friday close (fake break)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Resistance on Wednesday but no follow through on the downside.

However, that's understandable as there is often a 1-day UP move during a change of trend.

At this stage I would continue focus on shorting currencies in the short-term.

Even though the price action is weak, it's also the price action in the USD index that's bullish that leads me to believe that this week will close lower.

With the 3-day cycles now catching up with price, this can also send the AUD lower.

Note:- high risk trading shorts above the 3-day cycle high

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro remains below key levels in the trend.

After 2-down days and the failure of the 1-day counter-trend to close back above those levels on Wednesday, I would have to favour more weakness this week.

Trend guide the December 50% level @ 1,4786

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

first 2-days have followed US markets lower, whilst the USD index has broken above the December 50% levels and 3-weeks,which at the monet can signal a change of trend in currencies.

The Trend is DOWN, but it depends on how Wednesday trades.

Resistance 50% level and 3-day filter.

If Wednesday moves down into the 5-day lows, then there is a potential of a higher daily close.

If that happens then the daily close needs to remain below the 5-day levels and the weekly 50% level.

If that happens then Thursday becomes another 'short' sell using a higher daily open and resistance.

At this stage the trend on Wednesday should be defined by Tuesday's lows

Whenther there is a down trend I alway focus using the 3-day filters (yellow) as resistance.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Euro far more bearish in the short-term with a break of the 3-week lows, December 50% levels and also Tuesday's lows.

At this stage I would continue look trade the trend (DOWN).

Yellow filter trend guide.

Above Yelow filter and 5-day 50% level is resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently price is trading below the lesser timeframe 50% levels, but there are larger timeframe patterns that still favours higher prices in December (read Weekly Report).

However, until price is above the lesser timeframe 50% levels it's hard to favour further gains, as Tuesday can easily continue lower

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro has moved down into the Weekly lows and December 50% levels, and as pointed out in the Weekly report, for any UP moves to play out a Daily HOOK pattern back above 1.4934 needs to occur.

At this stage i'm not sure whether this is a 1-day support level that ends up heading lower the next day, or Tuesday HOOKS back above.

for intra-day traders the pink filter is the trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th December 2009 USD, AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD is going to be defined this week by this exact level @ 9152 (read Weekly report)

To confirm up moves there needs to be a close above the pink filter...

Euro Weekly and 5--day pattern

euro is below key levels in the higher timeframes...

for the euro to follow the Weekly report there needs to be a daily close back above the red 50% level @ 1.4936 (HOOK pattern), and potential higher Weekly close.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT