AUD Monthly and WeeklyCurrencies and Indexes are following the 2-month pattern into lower lows in February.
It began with the continuation of the down trend in January below the 50% level, and the expectation is that is will continue down into the Feb lows.
Ideally the best pattern would be for price to move back into the Monthly 50% levels and get into the trend, but that might not be the case as trend downwards in the last week of this Month can just continue lower in the following Month
AUD 3day pattern
AUD reversed down from the the Weekly 50% level, and even though the 3-day filters defined the trend down, it wasn't until price moved back below the 5-day 50% level that down move gathered pace.
This lead to the breakout of the 3-day lows on Thursday, and the continuation down into Friday.
Until February's lows are reached, the best set-ups will be shorting the 3-day filters (Yellow)
Therefore we need to wait until a higher daily close to get back into the trend if out of it.
Euro Monthly and Weekly
Same expectation:- heading down into February's lows.
Once February's lows are reached, the view is that the Euro will be support and then we look for 3-day breakout patterns on the UPside for any reversals....
GBP Monthly and Weekly
The Dynamics of GBP compared to the Euro and AUD is different.
Price is already trading around January's lows, so the bias was to move higher as we expected these lows to hold.
But we also expect the GBP to still follow the same pattern down into February's lows:- 2 monht pattern.
This will complete a double bottom, and once this completes, it will probably have more chance of moving upwards, which is a random length....
Random length:- the possibility is that price begins to rotate back towards the Quarterly 50% levels.
Now price will be moving back into February's 50% level next week, so it would be ideal to begin to look for shorts, but also price could move as high as the 3-week highs @ 1.5200.
Around those 3-week highs I would certainly look for a move down into the lows again.
But nothing is a certainty where price reverses down or if it goes down, but we should continue to subscribe to shorting the 3-day filters.
Daily reports written on Monday after 11am
