AUD Monthly and Weekly
Expecting more weakness in the AUD last week:- February lows.
Expected resistance Monthly and Weekly 50% levels for a push lower next week.
AUD 3-day patternWith Tuesday's breakout and then the retest of the break on Wednesday, I thought that the AUD would continue to drive down towards the February lows
Once Wednesday failed to continue down a reversal pattern upwards began resulting in a choppy trading week.
Day traders simply had to define the trend by the 5-day 50% levels.
As pointed out last week:- for position traders the ideal pattern to enter shorts would be around the 5-day highs.
We have 1 week to go, the 5-day highs match the higher timeframe 50% levels, with the expectation price is moving down.
Note: currencies are heavily influenced by US Index markets during the same timezone.
If Indexes go higher then currencies often follow.
If Index markets are reversing upwards from February lows towards the March 50% level, then currencies might not continue down into the February lows.
But we won't know that until it happens, which is a 5-day high breakout (Monday's highs) and trading above the timeframe 50% levels.
Euro Monthly and Weekly
As has been the case this month, the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide.
Next Week the expectation remains to continue down towards February's lows
Euro 5-day pattern
Choppy trading week, with no ideal 'short' set-ups to trade.
Even Tuesday's breakout didn't retest the break before continuing down into Wednesday's lows.
The only ideal set-up was Wednesday's reversal upwards into the 3-day filter.
As pointed out in Friday's Report:- ideal short set-up for position traders would be to see the Euro rally into the 5-day highs and take a short @ 1.2820
If the Euro is going to continue down it should move lower from the Weekly 50% level on Monday and back into the 5-day 50%.
Hopefully the 5-day 50% level doesn't hold,(moves towards Monday's highs) but breaks lower on Tuesday.
It wouldn't surprise me to see the Euro push UP towards Monday's 5-day highs, but things won't look like they are heading down in the last week of February if Monday's 5-day highs break.
A lot of that will depend on US index markets and the price action around their February lows.
GBP Monthly and Weekly
Weekly 50% level capped the market for most of the week, but failed to move lower as part of the push down into February's lows....
Next Week:- Weekly 50% level the trend guide
GBP 3-day pattern
As pointed out:- 5-day high the most robust level to enter position shorts.
They were reached on Friday.
Ideally pattern is for Monday to continue down from the Weekly 50% level and Friday's highs and break the 5-day 50% level, which could take 2-days for that to occur.
That being helped by a lower 3-day filter on Tuesday.
Note:- there is a possibility that GBP pushes higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs and 3-day filter, as was the case in the highs in February.
Any position shorts and I would take profits around the Weekly lows, and then look for another set-up later.
Daily report out on Monday after 11am
