AUD Monthly and Weekly
Currencies followed the same patterns as probably most things this week, down early in the week and into support, and then a late move upwards on Friday after a number of days consolidating around support.
There are still a few days to go until the end of this month, but with April highs (resistance) disappearing and shifting higher in MAY, AUD looks like it's going to push upwards in MAY.
With the Higher Weekly open I would look for a 3-day consolidating pattern until MAY begins and then look for the next BUY set-up from then.
AUD 5-day pattern
Monday started with the SELL down into the 5-day lows, which was part of the set-up (sell the 3-day filter)
Monday lows didn't hold , resulting in a 5-day breakout.
With price trading around the 5-week 50% levels there was an expectation price would swing up and retest the 5-day break and then continue down.
In any down-trending pattern, price should have sold off on Wednesday and moved down into the lows, as part of the April high reversal down, the 5-day retest and reject pattern, and then the 5-day 50% level SELL.
That didn't happen, resulting in a reversal breakout on Thursday back above the 3-day filter and continuation higher on Friday.
At this stage next week's 3-day filter will be viewed as early resistance
EURO Monthly and WeeklyThe previous Week the Euro closed below the Monthly 50% levels.
This is extremely bearish. But my expectation was that price would need to come back and retest the break or Weekly 50% levels before the trend could continue down.
Price did that, pushing up from the Weekly lows and slightly higher than expected on Friday.
Look at the Chart above and what conclusion can you make of the Price action?
The only conclusion I can make is.....
Higher Weekly open after a retest of the 50% levels should become a higher probability SHORT-TRADE early next week
The Euro should sell off from the Weekly 50% levels and Monthly 50% level and continue to trend down all Week.
The only way I could see the Euro actually moving higher would be for the Euro to reverse down 3-days into the MAY 50% level, and then kick upwards from Support:- MAY 50% levels.
But I'll come to that from Thursday next week.
Euro 3-day pattern
The upmove began with the break of the 3-day filter and rise up into the 5-day highs.
I did expect the Euro to reverse back down into the 3-day filter on Friday from resistance, but it continued up (stopped out) into a higher Friday close
Next Week:- simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter (red)
It's higher then I'll be shorting it, because it fits in with my view of the larger timeframes.
GBP monthly and Weekly
GBP sold off on Monday into the Monthly 50% levels, and followed the same breakout pattern on Thursday and push higher on Friday.
At this stage while GBP is trading above the Monthly 50% level the bias is to move higher.
But I'm going to treat GBP like the AUD...
Look at the market from the start of the next month on the 1st of MAY.
- All Daily forex reports are written after 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT
