1st October 2009 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday moves into pink to pink as it continues towards the October higher.

pink filter @ 8834 the trend guide with random resistance at 8876 & 8905 on Thursday


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro lagging after the early rise above the pink filter but the 50% level stalling price.

If Euro is going to continue to follow a lower Weekly open and higher weekly close, then it needs to be trading above the 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Expectation of higher prices in October but Euro lagging in this week's lower Weekly open and 2-day reversal.

At this stage price is above the September highs and with 1 day remaining until October the monthly balance point is the support zone (red)

Therefore Wednesday could remain in another sideways pattern until Thursday.

At this stage I favour higher moves, but I can't discount price moving down early in October to test the October 50% level (3-month 50% level) and 4th Quarter 50% levels either.

AUD 5-day and spiral filter

5-day 50% level confirmed with the spiral low.

If AUD remains in a sideways then wednesday will most likely stall around .8785

If Wednesday continues with the Weekly trend, as it continues with the October trend, then the AUD will move in a pink to pink (another R85 range) into higher highs and Thursday.

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Tuesday has support but whether Wednesday continues higher from support needs to be verifed with a move above the 5-day 50% level.

I can't discount Wednesday continuing either, as price can still move down into the October 50% levels.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

More lower Weekly rotation taking place, with the euro lagging on Monday's UP move even with the US equities markets rising.

At this stage I'm treating currencies as range bound until the end of this week and we move into the 4th Quarter from next week.

Whilst currencies are above their September highs the bias is to continue higher in the 4th Quarter.

However, sometime in October I would prefer to see the 3-week lows tested before any new UP trend continues higher.
AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

If there is going to be more rotation in the AUD, it will be defined by the 3-day filter.

Even better still would be using the R85 highs and 87.80-88 as a resistance point in a rising UP trend.

Euro 5-day and spiral filter

If the Euro is going to move higher it will need to complete the R85 high and continue to rise upwards above the 3-day filter.

If Tuesday fails to break the 5-day 50% level:- 2nd day rise from the lower Weekly open then there is a possibility that the Euro is moving back towards the Weekly lows and/or October 50% levels next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Euro Weekly

At this stage the bias is to continue higher, but price could remain range bound until the end of the monthly (Wednesday).

The only bearish pattern that I would be looking for would be the move downward from the October balance point on Thursday, but confirmed with a Friday close below the 3-week lows.

We can see the 3-week lows much higher in the AUD compared to the Euro.

AUD 5-day and spiral filter

At this stage Monday will be define by the 5-day 50% level, but after the R85 range completes.

If price completes upwards @ .8700, then either AUD continue to move upwards another 85 pips or reverses down into Monday's lows.

No probability on which direction Monday will take.

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter.

Same pattern on the euro after the R85 completes @ 1.4733

No probability on direction, but because i'm favouring US equity markets to have an upward bias over the first 2-days this week, this will help support the currencies and can follow the same patterns during GMT and US timezones.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th Sept 09, USD, AUD, EUR GBP Weekly

USD Weekly

USD Index looks to be following the lower low in October, which will be confirmed at the end of the trading week.


AUD monthly

AUD consolidating above the 3rd quarter higher and likely to continue higher in October.

After another week of trading the trend guide will be the open in relation to the single Monthly BP. (red)

At this stage is to look for short-term trading within the 5-day range and spiral filters until the end of next week.

Euro Monthly

Expectation to continue higher into October.

GBP monthly...

Support as shown, but the trend guide will be the 4th quarter balance point.

At this stage the expectation is a lower low into October, but will begin next week with a lower weekly open and trading around support, which could result in a higher Weekly close.

25th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

currencies following the US equity markets into potential lower Friday closes.

Early on Friday (asian Timezone) the 3-day cycle lows in both will define whether there is ealry support and prices rise back towards the 5-day 50% levels.

AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter.

If there is going to be a lower friday close, then Friday should be trading above 86.75.

At this stage there would be a bias to follow a pink to pink move down

Euro and 5-day pattern

Because the Euro is already around the pink filter, there can be a rise on Friday.

However, if price hits the 5-day 50% levels and is back under the pink filter 1.4641 then it's lower towards 1.4540 or another pink to pink.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Both currencies are heading back down into support levels, which are around their 5-day lows.

This week they will continue to follow the price action in US equity markets, therefore there is a potential lower close on Friday.

AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

I was looking for slightly higher prices on Wednesday but the higher spiral 'point' top provided the reversal pattern after earlier finding support on the 5-day 50% level and spiral low.

Whilst price is below the 5-day 50% level and spiral levels the bias is down.

2 pattern play:-

price continues down into the spiral low @ 86.25 and can continue down into a lower pink filter, which is another 85 pips down or around 8549.

If for some reason Thursday continues up early during the Asian timezone, then Thursday should be define by the Yellow 3-day filter.


Euro 5-day and spiral filter

Same expectation whilst below the 50% levels.

The will be a spiral filter around 1.4685

Thursday will be simply defined by this level...

Above and it's a random pattern that could see the euro back around the 3-day filter highs (red), during US timezone.

But below 1.4685 and it can also continue to break down and move another 85 pips lower

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Euro Weekly

Currencies continue higher and following the September high breakouts with the euro moving into the 3rd quarter highs.



AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Yesteraday's report was written two hours before the Tuesday started and the completion of the spiral range.

I was looking for a 41 pip down move, but when the completion occur in Wednesday and above the 3-day filter, the bias was to follow the September high break towards the Weekly highs.

No probability pattern on Wednesday.

Spiral filter resistance @ .8803

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

pink to pink move on Tuesday and Wednesday is starting from a higher spiral filter.

There is a breakout of the 5-day highs on Tuesday, therefore the bias is to continue higher on Wednesday...

However, whilst below the pink filter there is a possbility that price is moving back to retest the breakout and 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd Sept 2009, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

Both currencies are still trading above their September highs, and with the potential to reach their Weekly highs this week...

There was a push down on Monday, but Tuesday can set-up a two pattern play....

1. Continues higher during GMT and US time zones
2. Sells off on the higher Daily open during the Asian Time zone


AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Yesterday's view was that price was coming down from the R85 Range and that a close down would put currencies below their 5-day 50% levels, which was bearish on Monday

If there is going to be an Asian sell off today, then the spiral filter (R85 high) and 3-day filter will continue down from 86.75 and continue to fall down into support.

An extreme bearish pattern would be to see Tuesday close below support.

If there are going to be a higher moves during GMT and US timezones

Then I would still think there will be a 41 pip reversal down during the Asian timezone, but if price starts to trade above the R85 high @ 86.75, then the expectation is that Tuesday is following the September high breakout pattern.


Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

The exact same set-up on the Euro....

If price is below the Yellow and pink then the expectation price is going down:- 41 pips and maybe more

If price is above the pink & Yellow then it's going higher, based on the september breakout pattern towards the Weekly highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Currencies opening the trading week around the 5-day 50% level.

There has already been a 2-day pullback that can see higher prices early this week towards the Weekly highs, as the trends continue up whilst trading above the September highs.

AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter....

Based on the spiral filter I can't see the AUD rising unless price comes down into 8633, or even lower (pink to pink move)

No probability pattern on AUD...
Euro and spiral filter

I would need to see the R85 spiral filter to move down...

Note:- lower spiral filters mean prices are below the 5-day 50% level...

Therefore any higher moves would need to see 4 hour closes back a the 5-day 50% level...

otherwise price can continue down....

Higher Weekly opens and trading below the 5-day 50% levels

19th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, GBP Weekly

AUD and Euro

Keep an eye on the price action on the AUD over the next week or so...

If AUD begins to trade below the October balance point (red), then price can slip back towards the October 50% level @ 83.00

And being the 4th quarter and trading below the first month BP, price pattern is to move towards 83 cents, and if price continues to remain below each monthly BP thereafter, price is moving back towards 78 cents.

Euro:-

Looks to be continuing towards the October highs

GBP Monthly

looks bearish and heading down into support whilst below the 50% level.

if it's down into support by the end of this month, then it can move into a lower low pattern in October.

This pattern is because price is moving back to restest the breakout from MAY

18th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, Daily

AUD and Euro Weekly

Friday's trading is about trying to pick which direction Friday will close...

Higher or flat around 5-day 50% levels.

At this stage there isn't any probability either way

AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Yesterday's view that the AUD would hit resistance around 87.76

Because of this pattern I would think AUD would continue down to complete the range @ 8690

If that happens then the rest of the day will have to be defined by the filters @ .8721

Simply based on these patterns I can't see AUD making new highs on Friday.

5-day 50% levels random support.

Euro and spiral filter

Even though I'm looking for the Euro to move towards 1.4870 in September...

At this stage I can't see that occurring on Friday.

The 3 day filter (red) matches the R84 highs @ 1.4783 (resistance).

If the euro is going to go higher, it will be trading above this level because it's moving with the pink to pink move upwards, but that might occur during the US timezone.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, Daily

AUD & EUR Weekly

Currencies following the trend higher on Wednesday, with the EURO having more room to rise, as per 3rd Quarter pattern

AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

After the 2 day pattern at the start of the Week, Tuesday's late close above the 3-day filter set-up higher moves on Wednesday

Wednesday resulted in a pink to pink move upwards, and because there is a breakout of the 5-day highs on Wednesday there is an expectation that the AUD will continue higher on Thursday.

However, I'm not sure how much higher than 87.76

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter.

Expected continuation upwards on Wednesday using the 3-day filter as support, and resulting in a pink to pink move upwards.

Even though there is a view of higher prices, at this stage Thursday isn't providing a set-up for a higher move, unless there is a late breakout above 1.4714 before 11am...

and price continues higher once again completing the next R85 range upwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, Daily

AUD & Euro Monthly

We can see the trends in both currencies but the markets dynamics different in each.

AUD is capped around upper resistance levels and the 3rd Quarter

Euro is trying to move towards the 3rd Quarter with a September high breakout.

AUD Weekly and Euro Weekly

We can see the price action in the AUD moving sideways because it's currenlty being supported above the 3rd Quarter highs but below the September highs (Monlthy chart)

Euro has more upside to Run during this month.

AUD 5-day pattern in Spiral filter

Early resistance on Tuesday around the 3-day filter, but no follow through on a complete R84 range.

At this stage the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide, along with the R84 high @ 86.49

Euro 5-day pattern and Spiral filter

September high breakout and heading higher....

3-day red filter is the trend guide on Wednesday, and at this stage the view is to continue higher.

15th Sept 2009, AUD, EUR, Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly



AUD and Euro rising upwards from lower Monday's and support.



As per the Weekly Report, there is a lot of resistance in the AUD at these levels, but less so in the Euro because of the expected continuation up towards the 3rd Quarter highs.


AUD 5-day pattern and filter



Early selling pressure below the 5-day 50% level and spiral filter moving down a precise 41 pip range before heading higher.



If the AUD is going to go higher, then the level will simply be defined by 86.29



Above and it's moving upwards another 41-85 pips...



Below and it's part of these higher timeframe resistance levels.



At this stage Tuesday looks to be pushing higher



Euro 5-day pattern and Filter

bullish on the Euro and I wanted to see price rising up from a lower spiral filter (pink) and continue higher.

But in the early part of Monday it was choppy, until it continued higher and will probably continue towards 1.4676 (Tuesday's 5-day highs)

Around 1.4676 will be another pink filter, and if price is going to continue higher it will be above that...

Around those highs is the 5-day and pink filter, so at this stage it's hard to have a higher probability pattern that the trend will continue to move upwards on Tuesday even though it's part of the overall trend in the 3rd Quarter towards 1.4870

However, it's high risk to be shorting the 5-day highs simply because of the 3rd month 'thrust' pattern breakout of September (chart below)





Euro Monthly

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th Sept 2009, USD AUD, EUR Daily

USD INDEX Weekly

USD index support off the September lows and rising up from a lower Weekly open.

First target is the Weekly 50% level, with a potential move back towards the Monthly 50% level after a double monthly lows pattern in this Quarter.

If this goes UP, then currencies go down.


AUD Weekly & Euro Weekly

As per Weekly report, I'm more interested in AUD going down because of the Monthly and Quarterly patterns, whereas the Euro looks to be going higher.

At this stage there is a view of a 2-day pullback into support.......

AUD 5-day and Spiral filter

As per Weekly report, any reversal down is going to be dictated by the 3-day filter...

Along with the Spiral filter.

At this stage whilst below the pink it's going down into the 50% level.

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter...

Monday is simply trading on the side of the pink & red filter...

And at this stage it below both...