1 FEB 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation that price is heading down towards the February lows.

Because of the Friday close below the 5-day lows and previous weekly lows, I can't see this week starting with a 2-day UP move.

I would treat Friday's lows and the 5-day 50% level as resistance towards Monday's lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The same applies to the Euro....

I would treat Friday's 5-day lows as a trend guide, with the expectation price is moving towards Monday's lows.

Above 1.3903 is a random pattern, and I'm not sure if the Euro is going to move higher than the previous Weekly low @ 1.3973

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

OIL FUTURES 30 JAN 2010 Weekly

USD Index

At this stage the expectation is that the USD index will continue towards the February highs.

Around those highs are important, because if price reverses back under $80.00, then price will be back below the 3xQuarter 50% level, which could see a rotation back down into the monthly 50% level in March.

AUD Quarterly and Monthly

It seems that the 3-Quarter 50% level is the target @ 84.42.

A probable support that's verified with lesser timeframe patterns.

Euro Quarterly and Monthly

Extremely bearish when price breaks out of the 3-month lows (January) and below the 3-quarter 50% levels, as the USD Index rises.

There's two possible outcomes:-

1. break and extend pattern down into the February lows and Feb closes back above 1.4412

And then March moves upwards

2.:- breakout can extend from 1 Quarter into the next.

That means the Euro is travelling towards the Yellow lows in the 2nd Quarter in a zig-zag fashion, or could be swift.

GBP Quarterly, Monthly & Weekly

February lows support.

Based on the Weekly timeframe it could take 2-weeks for that to happen.

Note:- Everything is dependant on how the USD index trades around the February highs and Currencies around their February lows.

Daily reports out on Monday

29 JAN 2010 USD Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Random support:- Weekly lows and 5-day lows on Friday, but high risk below the 3-month 50% levels



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breaking Weekly lows, and whilst below it's high Risk to be trading longs.

28 JAN 2010 USD Euro, AUD Daily

Dollar Index Weekly and 5-day range.

Dollar Index continues to rise towards the January highs and probably a double pattern into the February highs.

As this Index continues higher, currencies will continue to drop.

However, with the Index trading already around the 5-day highs on Wednesday, there could be a 1-day pullback.





AUD Weekly and 5-day range

With the trend breaking the 3-month 50% levels there is a possibility that the trend can continue down towards the 3-month lows during this Quarter.

Random support the Weekly lows.

But it’s not a time to go looking for ‘longs’ if below .8895




Euro Weekly and 5-day range

Break and extend pattern in the Weekly range is about to complete @ 1.3973

With only a couple of days to go until the end of the month and new monthly ranges, at this stage I favour a continuation down into February’s lows, as the USD Index continues higher.

For the next two days there is a random pattern:-

Price can remain below the January lows @ 1.4098 and then continue down.

Or there’s the possibility that there could be a swing towards the Weekly 50% level and then continue down from next week

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day 50% level and down into the daily lows..

Once again the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide.

EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage the euro is following the break and extend pattern from the breakout of last week's down into this week's lows. (green)

5-day 50% level is the trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD supported and also 'capped' under the 3-week 50% level. (GREEN)

If Tuesday 'HOOK's above the Weekly 50% level (daily close above), then this will have an upwards bias into Friday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day range.

January low support and a view that price is moving towards the Weekly 50% level.

How far this week travels is important, because if it can't close above the Weekly 50% level, then there is a view that February will push downward into the lows:- double wave pattern.

5-day 50% level trend guide

25 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report:- rising up from support with an upward bias for the next 2-days....

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation of rising into the Weekly 50% level, but I would treat that level as resistance

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23 JAN 2010 USD, AUD Euro, GBP Weekly

USD Dollar index.

The expectation is that the USD Index should continue towards the January highs by next week, and possibly $80.00 in early February.

Weekly 50% level support

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD is trading around the 3-month 50% level in January.

These levels are robust support zones and then next major move might not happen until the start of February

Next week’s 50% levels will be the trend guides.

A lower Weekly open can start with a 2-day UP move:- random length using support.

If Tuesday 'HOOK's above the 3-week 50% level (Green) then that could lead into a higher Weekly close.

If the first 1-2 days fail to trade above the 3-week 50% level, then that could be a 2-day up move and then the trend continues down.

Below those 3-month 50% levels and AUD will be heading down towards the January lows and probably down into $ 84.40 in February (matching 3- Quarter 50% level)

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Major support, but it might not have a complete reversal upwards until February.

As there might be a Double monthly low in February.

There’s a breakout of the Weekly lows, and in the short-term I’m expecting price to remain within those Weekly lows and the Weekly 50% level over the next 5-days.

Weekly 50 % level resistance whilst the USD Index goes higher.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

At this stage I favour a continuation down into the Weekly lows, whilst below the Jan 50% level @ 1.6260

Weekly lows match the 3-Quarter 50% level:- robust support.

22 JAN 2010 USD, AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD trading around the January 50% levels @ 89.80, but there's another breakout pattern on Thursday (5-day lows), which should continue down on Friday towards the Weekly lows.

At this stage I can't discount these January 50% level holding support on Friday and these's an UP day that closes back towards the Weekly 50% levels, but then continues lower next week (Weekly lows)

EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

Holding support around key levels:- Monthly and Quarterly.

Currently range bound within the 5-day pattern.

5-day 50% level is the trend guide, if price is trading above that level on Friday then there an expectation that price is trying to move back towards the Weekly low breakout and next week's 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21 JAN 2010 USD, AUD, Euro Daily

USD Monthly and Weekly

USD dollar Index has continued higher with the target the January highs, but it might take until next week to reach that level because of the Weekly highs.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support, but there is a breakout and extend pattern in the 5-day range.

Resistance the 50% level, which matches the breakout.

Thursday's lows random support.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro completes the move down into robust support zones in January and the 3-Quarter 50% level.

However, there is a breakout and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe.

This can result in the trend continuing down until next week.

However, based on the USD Index Weekly highs, It's more likely that price can rest the Weekly lows by Friday, but then continue lower next week into the Weekly lows.

EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Thursday's lows support if it gets that low, as price is already trading around higher timeframe levels.

I can't see Thursday rising higher than the 5-day low breakout and the 5-day 50% level from Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There's no probability pattern for Wednesday, as this week looks like a sideways pattern of 85 point range rotations.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish trend and there's a breakout of Tuesday's 5-day lows, which in theory should have Wednesday remaining flat or going lower

However, the spiral filter has pink support that could see price move upwards 85 pips.

I would treat Wednesday as a R85 rotating day between the levels in the 5-day pattern.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and R85

Same report as yesterday:- below resistance levels and matching R85 spiral top.

There's no bullish pattern at this stage, unless Tuesday 'HOOKS above the Weekly 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

A bounce off the 3-day cycle on Monday and above the 5-day 50% levels should normally continue upwards on Tuesday.

There's no bearish pattern on Tuesday.

5-day 50% level the trend guide.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly, R85, & 5-day pattern

AUD currently in an UP trend and trading around the spiral 50% level but below the 5-day 50% level.

Therefore if the AUD is going upwards it needs to be trading above the 5-day 50% level @ 92.40

If the R85 closes down @ 9194, then 9219 becomes a trend guide for a push down into the Weekly 50% levels

Euro Weekly, R85 and 5-day pattern

Below the weekly 50% level so the expectation is to move downward.

There is also a breakout of the 5-day lows from Friday, therefore is should continue down on Monday.

However, the most robust pattern would be to retest the 5-day 50% level, which matches the R85 spiral high precisely.

The only conclusion is a retest of those levels @ 1.4421-27 and a continuation down

16 JAN 2010 USD, AUD, Euro, GBP Weekly

USD Monthly and Weekly

There's always an expectation that when price reaches a higher timeframe 50% level the market will thrust away and continue with the trend.

When it doesn't often the market will begin to move into a consolidation pattern (sideways) for a number of weeks.

I expected USD to find support and close much higher.

Therefore, even though it's found support, it might take until the last week of the month or early February to get the next short-term (5-day) trending pattern.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

I would like to see AUD continue towards the January highs.

Daily report out on Monday.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Resistance @ the 3-month 50% levels but it took until Friday's break of the 5-day 50% level to confirm the reversal pattern.

However, based on the current price action and where it's occurring, it looks like this month is a sideways pattern for a number of weeks, but with a downward bias.

At this stage I would simply look for short-term R85 point movements within the 5-day range.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP slightly more bullish than the Euro, as it's trading above the Monthly 50% levels.

Things can quickly change, but I would treat GBP as range trading between the Weekly channels, and look for patterns in the 5-day range.

Daily Reports out on Monday.

NOTE:- If US equity Index markets continue down drop early next week, that will probably send the USD upwards and currencies lower.

15 JAN 2010 USD Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day 50% level support, as part of the Weekly high support and continuation upwards.

Friday's highs & January highs random resistance until next Week's open.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Nothing has changed....

Trend guide for Friday is the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14 JAN 2010 USD Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD trading above last week's 3-week highs and there is a potential to continue towards this week's highs...

However, the price action currently is sideways and rotating in 85 point waves.

No probability pattern for Thursday.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

After 3-days of trying to breakout above the Monthly 50% level, I would think that either Thursday is going to be the day, as the USD index breaks and trades below support.

However, a matching 5-day high around resistance, can lead to a weekly reversal pattern and lower Weekly close.

Currently the Euro is rotating in 85 point ranges, but also the same Weekly highs, as further selling could result from the price being below the 5-day 50% level on Thursday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12 JAN 2010 USD Euro, AUD Daily

USD Index monthly and Weekly

USD dollar index is struggling to hold the 3-month 50% levels.

Because of the December high breakout I would naturally view the trend as a break and extend pattern into the January highs.

The dip downward isn't a surprise because the best trends originate from the 50% levels, but I'm surprised by the lack of bounce.

However, the Primary trend is trading below the Yearly 50% levels in 2010.


Euro Weekly and R85 spiral.

Euro remains below the 3-month 50% levels (but above the Yearly 50% level).

At this stage price continues to consolidate in 85 point wave.

pink filter and Weekly highs trend guides


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher Weekly open and 2-day reversal back down, but at this stage it looks well supported.

There's a breakout of the Weekly highs from the previous week and price has come down and found support:- tested

Potential move over the next 3-days is back towards the Weekly highs this week:January highs

50% level in the spiral range is the trend guide:- 91.52

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

pink filter is the trend guide and also the R85 top.

Below the pink filter and it's part of a short-term reversal pattern towards last week's Weekly highs @ 91.80

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

USD Index is just hanging onto the January 50% level support, whilst the Euro is just trading below it.

Tuesday will probably set the trend for the rest of the week...

Above the 1.4504-11 and there will be an expectation that the Euro will continue to move higher and follow a higher Friday close.

Below those levels and it's a higher daily open 'sell' after testing resistance levels.

No probability on Direction other than being on the right side of that level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11 JAN 2010 Euro, AUD Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

AUD continues to push up towards the Weekly and January highs, whilst the Euro remains trading between the Yearly 50% level and 3-month 50% levels.

A lot of resistance around the 3-week highs, which match the 5-week 50% level on the Euro.

That resistance is viewed as a potential push down into the January lows.

However, as pointed out in the Weekly report, if the USD Index breaks support and the euro breaks out of the 3-week highs then this Quarter should continue higher, as it's trading above the Yearly 50% levels.




AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter.
Trend guide on Monday is the pink level.

Below the pink and treat Monday as part of a higher Weekly open and selling back down.

Above the pink and it's towards the R85 highs and Weekly highs (random resistance and 'top')

Euro 5-day and spiral filter

Based on the position of the 5-day range within the higher timeframe levels, treat Monday as a no probability pattern.

If day-trading I would simply judge the price action either side of the pink filter and focus on 41-85 point moves

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9 JAN 2010 USD, AUD, Euro, GBP Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

Whilst price is still above these higher timeframe 50% levels, the expectation is that the trend will continue towards the January highs, putting pressure on the Euro and GBP.

However, I did expect a higher friday close when Thursday had closed above the 5-day 50% level.

Therefore, whilst price is below the Yearly 50% level, the reversal pattern up in the 4th Quarter will be bearish again on breaking the 3-month 50% levels again.

Whilst the Euro and GBP are above their Yearly 50% levels.

AUD monthly and Weekly

Normal price action is to expect a Weekly trend to continue away from the higher timeframe 50% level and close near its highs on Friday.

However, at the start of the week I did expect it to be down, because that's where December had closed (below those 50% levels)

AUD 5-day pattern

But a breakout of the 5-day high on Monday told me straight away I was wrong, and it took until Friday to retest the 5-day 50% level.

Daily report out Monday

Euro Monthly and Weekly

There is still the expectation of a move downward, as long as price remains below the 50% levels.

Need to keep in mind that the euro is still above the 3- Yearly 50% level 1.4230, and could remain in a consolidating pattern for awhile.

Daily report out on Monday.


GBP monthly and Weekly



Weekly 50% level is the trend guide for next week.

GBP is trading above a number of higher timeframe 50% levels (Yearly 50% level and 3-Quarter 50% level).



But below the lesser timeframe 50% levels