1st APril 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday we ended up with Set-up B and a higher daily close to end the month.

Today price starts with a higher daily open and trading at the single monthly balance point (red)

I continue to be bearish however there is still the possibility that by early next week price is trading around the April 50% level (3-month).

Therefore below the monthly red, the 3-week 50% level and the Yellow filter on Thursday I favour the trend continuing down in April.

Above and there's the potential for a higher Weekly close, but that will need to be verified with a 5-day high breakout


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day stall completed with the expectation that price should continue towards the Weekly highs next week.

Support:- 9114

don't trade longs below .9114 (weekly 50% level)

There is still the possbility that the current week closes around its lows and the April 50% levels, as per Weekly report set-up.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish on the Euro...

Looking for set-up A to play out:- continuation of the trend down

SET-UP B:- bounces off the 3-day lows and swings back towards the highs

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day stall above the 3-day cycle will remain above the 5-day 50% level.

2-day reversal after the change of cycle can revisit the 3-week 50% levels (green).

Resistance:- weekly highs

Random support:- 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

My view is for price to continue towards the April lows and not swing back towards the April 50% level @ 13374.

The latter is a possibility because of the break and extend pattern completion, which normally rotates back towards the 3-month 50% level.

Break and extend:- January breakout and completion March lows

If there is a breakout of Tuesday's highs then I know the latter is occuring.

If my view of an extended move towards April's lows:- Yellow filter trend guide & Weekly 50% level




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm hope my view of AUD moving towards 97cents+ in the 2nd Quarter hasn't started a week early.

I will know if there's a breakout of Tuesday's and the Weekly highs, if that's the case.

Resistance:- .9223

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Friday's reversal and back into the 3-week 50% level, should continue down as part of the trend during this Quarter and into the next.

Short-term price would need to be trading below 1.3404 to confirm a continuation of the trend.



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the most robust pattern to trade longs would be from April using the 3-month 50% level.

At this stage I would focus on the levels in the 5-day range & Weekly 50% levels and look for Short-term moves of 41-85 pips until next week.

27 MARCH USD, Euro, GBP, AUD Weekly

USD Index

Completes the break and extend pattern from January into March highs.

Two patterns:-

#A. can continue to rotate back down into the 3-month 50% level and then follow another 2-month wave pattern into higher highs in MAY.

#B. continues into April highs and swiftly reverses down into the 3-month 50% level.

if that happens then the next trend upwards won't occur until MAY.

At this stage I'm leaning to #B


Euro Monthly and Weekly

As pointed out with Friday's report, there is now a possibility that there's a 2-day UP move playing out. (daily report out on Monday)

What happens in the Index is going to influence the Euro.

If #B plays out then the expectation is that price will continue into April's lows before a larger reversal pattern back towards the 3-month 50% level.

GBP monthly and Weekly

then next leg down will depend on the next few days until April begins...

April will complete the break and extend pattern in the 3-month cycle.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Extremely bullish on the AUD in the 2nd Quarter.....

3-month 50% level support for a move towards .97cents

26 MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trade the levels on Friday...

If price hits the March lows and Friday's lows and closes above the Yellow....

Friday might not rise higher that the 5-day 50% level, but there would be an expectation of a 2-day UP move early next week.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

No probability pattern on Friday....

either price remains within the 5-day range....

or Friday continues to trend down into the Weekly lows

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25 MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

EURO monthly

March lows completes the break and extend pattern from January into March lows.

Any reversal off these levels will need a 3-5 day consolidating pattern.

Note:- There is still a possbility that price can continue down into April's lows.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Thursday's lows match the March lows, but it might struggle to rise higher than the Weekly lows and 5-day 50% level on Thursday.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern


At this stage I'm treating AUD as a sideways consolidating pattern until the end of the Quarter.

Currently trading around the Weekly 50% levels.

No set-ups for Thursday:- focus on 4 hour levels & 41-85 pips ranges.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern


euro continues down on Tuesday and most likely to continue down this week into the Weekly lows and March lows.

Yesterday started with an early push down and a 4 hour close below the Yellow filter and another sell down of 4 hours. The rest of the day remained in a downward consolidating pattern.

Random support on Wednesday's lows in a downward trend.

Resistance:- 5-day 50% levels.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently looks range bound within the 5-day pattern and consolidating:- 41 & 85 pips ranges

no trade set-ups of Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish on the Euro, and the Weekly 50% level should send price down towards the Weekly lows and March lows....

If that price action takes place price shouldn't rise higher than the 5-day 50% level or blue channel (3-day highs).

Two possible patterns...

1. moves down early on Tuesday into the Yellow filter and then continues upwards into the 5-day 50% level.

2. continues upwards on Monday into the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level and reverses back down into the Yellow filter.

Note:- don't short trade above the blue channel high, as price can swing back towards the 3-day cycle highs (White)

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bullish pattern should continue higher from the Weekly 50% level towards the Weekly highs this week...

but not unless there is a 4 hour close above the Yellow filter

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd MARCH 2010 AUD Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level as support @ .9112 (bearish below 9104)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I would have to think the Euro is going lower, as per Weekly report.

Random support Monday's low, but because of the larger trends can breakout and continue to trend lower.

Weekly 50% level resistance.

20 MARCH USD, Euro, GBP, AUD Weekly

USD Index

Should continue towards March and Aprill highs,

Whilst the Euro and GBP goes lower

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Trend should continue down;- Weekly 50% level and 1.3632 trend guide


GBP Monthly and Weekly

Should follow the trend down into the Quarterly lows (Yellow).

However, based on the 3-week 50% level GBP could have a short-term counter-trend move some time next week back into the 3-week highs.

If that happens, those weekly highs will set-up the next leg down.

AUD monthly and Weekly

Market dynamics is different with an upwards bias.

Either the Weekly 50% level supports price for a move towards the Weekly highs...

Or the next 2-weeks consolidates until the 2nd Quarter, with a retest of the 3-week lows and 3-month 50% levels.

All movements within the larger timeframe levels will be optimised with set-ups within the 5-day range.

Daily reports out on Monday

19th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro continues the downtrend with the expected move towards the 2nd Quarter lows in April.

The move down from the 5-day 50% level and breakout on Thursday should continue to move down into the Friday lows and Weekly lows.

2 patterns on Friday.....

1. Friday continues with the trend breaking those lows, as price moves towards the March lows

2. Friday and Weekly lows support price and a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level.

A continuation of the down trend shouldn't break those levels, and head lower next week.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

The most robust set-up for the trend to continue higher would be a move back to next week's 50% level and then continue higher next week.

However, based on the 5-day range, Friday looks like it could remain between the highs and the 5-day 50% level.

No probability pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday reversal and back into the middle of the 5-day range.

I'm bearish and continue to be bearish on the euro, but price can still remain with a slight upwards bias until the start of April (3-month 50% level).

If the Euro is going to continue down then the yellow filter is the trend guide:- 41- 85 pips.

Above the yellow and it's more rotation towards the highs.




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD reached the Weekly highs, with an upwards bias towards March highs.

Once again the trend guide is Wednesday's 5-day high @ 92.30.

If the Weekly highs is a resistance pattern then price will rotate back towards the 5-day 50% level.

At this stage there is a 5-day high breakout on Wednesday and whilst price is above 92.30 the bias is to continue towards Thursday's high.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th March AUD, Euro Daily 2010

AUD Weekly and 5-day range...

Early resistance around the Yellow filter:41 pips and then a continuation up towards the Weekly highs.

Yello filter and Tuesday's 5-day highs is the trend guide on any higher moves this week

No probability pattern on Wednesday.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expected continuation of the downtrend didn't eventuate, and whilst price is above 1.3702 the bias is to follow the mov towards the Weekly highs and mostly likely rotate back towards the April 3-month 50% level.

No probability pattern on Wednesday:- resistance 5-day highs

Support:- Yellow

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th MARCH 2010 Euro GBP AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bearish on the Euro with the expectation price is heading down into the March lows. (as per Weekly report)

currently the Weekly 50% level is supporting the market, but I have to favour more downside.

The trend guide should be 1.3702

If price is rising up from the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday and trading above 1.3702 then Tuesday could end up a choppy trading day.

However, I wouldn't be trading longs.

GBP monthly and Weekly

Same view of heading lower....


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same bearish patterns aren't in the AUD.

Monday moved down and hit the 3-day lows and in theory should follow the Weekly high breakout from last week and continue higher this week.

However, the Yellow filter can act as resistance:- 41 & 85 pips.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

After the USD index hitting the 3-week lows and the Euro hitting the 3-week highs on Friday, I'm bearish on the Euro.

At this stage I need to focus on patterns in the 5-day range and begin to hold trades longer on the short side and filter those moves.

Yellow Monday level is the trend guide.

Normally I would look for the trend to continue higher on a Friday breakout, but it doesn't match my overall view of the USD and currencies.

If above the Yellow then it's pushing up towards this week's highs. (resistance 1.3839)




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

not so bearish on the AUD, as per Weekly report.

Yellow filter the trend guide.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13 MARCH USD, Euro, GBP, AUD Weekly

USD INDEX Monthly and Weekly

"For a move to continue towards the April highs often price will move towards the 3-Week lows as it comes towards the end of current month & Quarter and then test support and then push higher into April as the next Quarter starts" Previous Weekly Report

USD Index has moved down into the 3-week lows. This pattern normally would set-up a continuation of the trend towards the April highs in the 2nd quarter.

This down move hasn't broken any support levels as yet, therefore my view still stands.

If the USD index moves up next week, Euro & GBP should move lower.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro has reversed back into the 3-week highs.

If there is going to be a move down and follow a move towards the April lows then we need to set-up the patterns in the 5-day range.

Short-term there is nothing to suggest the trend will continue down, but we need to be aware.

GBP monthly and Weekly

If GBP is going to move down into March lows, then it needs to remain below 1.5245, and not continue towards the 3-week highs next week.

There's no breakout of the 5-day high on Friday to suggest higher prices.

It has hit the 5-day highs and stalled and I would look for a move down to begin with 2-days.

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD doesn't fall into the USD index basket.

Friday was disappointing, as I would have thought Friday would have continued higher.

However, there's a Weekly breakout and I would think AUD should continue upwards next week.

12th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

no probability pattern on Friday...

Price can remain range bound within the levels:- weekly and 5-day

There is a possibility that the closer the it comes to the end of this Quarter, price can begin to move higher and go looking for the 3-month 50% level at the start of April.

If that happens then that would provide a robust set-up for a continuation down in the 2nd Quarter.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

If the AUD is going to follow the Weekly high breakout and continue higher on friday....

Then it should remain above the Yellow filter and continue towards Friday's highs and even breakout.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

85 pip down move yesterday but now above the 5-day 50% level on Thursday...

No probability pattern for today.

Random support:- 1.3615



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading above the Weekly highs, but stalling at the Wednesday highs.

Weekly highs the trend guide, along with the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Continue to be bearish whilst price is trading below the 50% levels & focusing on 41-85 pip ranges.

Because the 3-day cycle is a BUY (white below), don't short-trade above the Yellow, as price will be back above the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level @ 1.3616.



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Breakout of the Weekly highs and 5-day highs on Tuesday should continue to move higher...

However, there's not an ideal set-up to trade longs, if you aren't alreadly long from the 5-day 50% level.

Trend guide the Weekly highs.

8th MARCH 2010 Euro AUD Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Monday's resistance and Tuesday opening around the 5-day 50% level, I would treat Tuesday simply by trading on the side of the Weekly and 5-day 50% level @ 1.3631.

I would favour a downward bias of 41-85 pips. (because of the Yellow filter) and overall trend of the market.

AUD Weekly and 5-day range.

Weekly high and monday high resistance will need to see price trading below the 5-day 50% level for a potential drift towards the 5-day lows and Weekly 50% levels.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT