1st April 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Thursday's trading has resulted in the trend moving back above the Weekly level.

Based on the current price action, I would favour Friday continuing higher, and follow the Weekly range, and then towards the April highs.

However, the 5-day range highs on Friday doesn't provide a high probability that the trend will breakout, or remain choppy betweem the Weekly levels.

Trend guide 1.4154.




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD completes the MARCH highs @ 1.035 on the last day of the Month.

Market dynamics suggests the trend can continue upwards next week, and towards the April highs.

If below next week’s level, the expectation is that price is revisiting the April 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Early selling pressure on Wednesday, but a failure to break support has seen 2nd 12 hour support push the trend back above key short-term levels.

The Euro is below the Weekly level, but based on the current price action, there is now the possibility that the rest of this week moves higher.

Trend guide the 5-day 50% level & channel highs @ 1.4125



AUD Weekly and Daily range.

likely to complete the March highs @ 1.035 on the last day of the month, matched with Thursday's highs.

This is seen as random resistance, that will need to be validated with patterns in the 12 hour ranges if price is going to reverse down.

Note: if for some reason the AUD moves down early on Thursday without reaching the highs, then we have trailing support levels around 1.0282 matched with the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report, there was a bias to rise upwards during the first 2-days towards the Weekly level, helped by Tuesday's support level @ 1.4064.

I also mentioned that from Wednesday the euro could come under pressure.

However, not whilst above 1.4097 (intra-day support)

In conclusion:- the Euro is either going to sell down from Wednesday and break support....(5-day lows)

or it's going to follow the trend Towards April highs, as part of the remaining above the current March highs and Weekly 50% level




AUD Weekly and Daily range

We have seen the AUD move into a 2-day stall pattern, whilst remaining above the Weekly level.

After these two days there's now more reason for the trend to continue towards 1.035 over the next 2-days.

However, the daily range isn't providing a robust set-up.

Trend guide brown filter.

We might see a potential up trend originate from the 2nd 12 hour support low and continue higher if price is trading below the brown filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro is rising up from the Weekly 50% level, as part of a 2-day reversal pattern (Friday 5-day low)

The trend bias is to continue towards 1.4150.

Currently the Euro is trading above the 2nd 12 hour highs and inside channels, which should continue to move up towards 1.4119.

Once is gets to that level, it’s either going to continue upwards, as part of a 2-day up move….

Or it’s going to push the Euro back down into the channel lows @ 1.4064 (random support)



AUD Weekly and Daily range.

Weekly support @ 1.0232 help push the AUD upwards, but it failed to continue towards the March highs.

The current price action looks like it’s part of a 2-day stall pattern after Friday’s 5-day highs.

If Tuesday follows the daily range pattern, then it looks like it will continue down into the support levels and 5-day 50% level, but below the Weekly level.

Or AUD continues to remain choppy on Tuesday (41 pip ranges), as part of a 2-day range stall pattern before it continues upwards.

Note:- don’t trade longs below 1.0201

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report, the Euro could be rotating down towards the April 50% level over the next 5-days .

As per Friday's 5-day low pattern, there is the possibility that the next 2-days tries and move upwards

Therefore the levels at 11am will decide the direction of short-term trends over the next 12 hours

AUD Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly Report, the trend bias is to continue towards 1.035, using the Weekly level @ 1.0232 as the trend guide.

However, there is also the possibility that Friday's resistance (5-day high) could result in a 2-day reversal/stall pattern..

.

Therefore the 11am level will define whether Monday continues higher or not.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th MARCH, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

looking at the current price action in the USD, it looks like it will swing upwards and move back towards the April 50% level in the last week of the month.



Euro monthly and Weekly

If USD Index swings upwards, then there is a potential move lower in the Euro.

However, there is a Friday 5-day low pattern, which suggests a 2-day rise upwards (Weekly 50% level).

if that happens and it struggles to rise higher than the Weekly level @ 1.4150, then from Wednesday onwards we should look for further weakness until the end of next week.




AUD Monthly and Weekly

Current price action suggests that the AUD will continue towards 1.035.......

As long as it remains above the Weekly level @ 1.0232.

Note:- AUD has stalled at the Friday 5-day high , therefore there is the potential that next week begins with a 2-day reversal pattern/ stall

25th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro remains above the Quarterly level, but around the MARCH highs.

current price action suggests the trend will push up towards the Weekly highs/Friday highs....

However, i'm not sure whether that is going to be during the first 12 hours or the 2nd.

Trend guide @ 1.4188



AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD has completed the move into the Weekly highs, which is seen as random
resistance.

These highs will either stall the trend, and the AUD moves into another 5-days
of consolidation until the start of April...

or it continues with the fake break pattern, and breakouts of this week's highs
and follows the trend towards 1.035 by next week (last week of MARCH reaching the
MARCH highs)

no probability in what will happen, other than trading in the side of the levels
in Friday's range (11am)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range…

Wednesday has reversed down to retest the weekly breakout using the resistance levels in the daily range.

At this point in the trend it becomes tricky, because the euro could swing back upwards, but in theory it should at least follow the breakout pattern in the 12 hour range @ 1.4110 and continue down into #B

When we look at the larger monthly cycles, the Euro is reversing down from the MARCH highs @ 1.4189, and testing the Quarterly channel high (Yellow @ 1.4086), as shown in the Weekly report.

What traders need to keep an eye on is the Quarterly level @ 1.4086, because if it’s below and it’s reversing down from the March highs, the reversal of the trend could see the Euro back down into the weekly lows.

At this point there is no reason to be trading on the long side other than looking for short-term ranges of 41 pips or less.

I personally would be focusing on whether the Euro is going to continue lower.



AUD Weekly and Daily range

Based on the price action in the 2nd 12 hour pattern on Wednesday, it looks like the AUD will continue up towards the Weekly highs (resistance)....

Trend guide @ 1.0114/29

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily

Euro didn't reach the Weekly highs, but it looks like it's in the process of moving down and retesting last week's breakout.

However, there is random support in the first 12 hours that could push price back up into the brown filter and channel highs, which is seen as resistance.



AUD Weekly and Daily

As noted in the Weekly report, either the trend was going to continue down, or it's a fake break and the market consolidates within the weekly levels until April.

At this point it is a fake break:- random resistance the Weeky highs.

I would focus on trying to take small range increments of 41 pips
each 12 hour range, which occassionally could lead into 85 pips by the end
of the day until April begins.

Trend guide & support @ 1.0082, but below the brown

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

Euro nearing the Weekly highs, and my view is that price will try and rotate back down and retest last week's breakout.

However, there's no confirming pattern in the 12 hour range, that suggests Tuesday will move down, unless it's below the intra-day support levels.

Based on the current price action, the first 12 hours could see another push upwards

AUD Weekly and Daily range

If the AUD is going to follow my view of moving lower, then it needs to reverse down on Tuesday (below the weekly 50% level).

11am trend guide is the brown filter...

However, there's no pattern in the 12 hour range on Tuesday ( just yet), that suggests there is going to be a daily reversal pattern whilst the trend remains above the white channel highs @ 1.0017

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Breakout of the Weekly and Daily highs on Friday should continue to extend up towards next week's Daily (Monday) and Weekly highs.

Once that occurs we should begin to look for a minor reversal pattern that retest's Friday's breakout and the trailing Weekly level @ 1.4069



AUD Weekly and daily range

As per Weekly report, my view is that the AUD is moving lower, however it could also swing back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore Monday's trading is simply based on trading on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th MARCH 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Index monthly and Weekly

USD moving into a double monthly low pattern in MARCH....

There is now two possible patterns.....

#1 rotates upwards from next week and back into the April 50% level

#2) USD Index is being sold down from the Yearty 50% level towards the Yearly lows @ 73.80

Therefore March lows can fail, or the next downward leg begins from April


Euro monthly and Weekly

How the USD Index plays out will determine whether the Euro will begin to rotate back towards the April 50% level....

or the trend continues up towards the April highs. (2nd Quater highs)

Currently there's a breakout of the Weekly highs, which should extend up to next week's highs, and this will be seen as resistance.




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD moved above the 5-day 50% level on Friday, and then continued upwards during
the 2nd 12 hour pattern, as price rotates back towards this week's breakout.


Next Week:- Because there's a breakout pattern in the Weekly timeframe, I
would treat AUD as moving back down into the lows.

For that to happen price needs to be trading below .9897

Otherwise, this week's price action could be a fake break, and over the next
2-weeks AUD moves into a consolidation pattern within the Weekly levels until
the start of the 2nd Quarter (April)

18th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro continues to push upwards without providing a high probability set-up on Thursday.

The channel highs broke out during the first 12 hours, and the 2nd 12 hour pattern provided a 41 pip up move.

Today:- as long as it remains above the channel highs, the trend bias is to continue towards Friday's highs, which match the Weekly highs

Those upper levels are seen as random resistance levels on Friday, as the 1st quarterly highs @ 1.4096 could stall the market from rising further, but it would need to close below on Friday and then continue down next week, starting with a 2-day reversal pattern


AUD Weekly and Daily range

My view is that the AUD is moving down towards .9633 matched with the Weekly breakout pattern and next week's lows.

However, Thursday's set-up didn't continue down, instead it remained choppy.

I still have the view that the AUD will continue down, but Friday's set-up might not provide that expectation.

There are two patterns at play on Friday...

#1 ) The AUD moves up into the 5-day 50% level and channel highs & then sells down, breaking 12 hour support and following the larger trend lower.

#2) 12 hour support comes into play early and pushes the AUD back into the 5-day 50% level, which will then decide if it will continue down, or the 2nd 12 hour pattern pushes Friday back towards the Weekly low breakout @ 9985/93

I favour #1 occurring, but I won't be surprised if #2 happens, simply because the March low @ 9796 has been reached, and the AUD is now rotating up towards next week levels

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro remains choppy at the moment, and better trades in the AUD at this stage.

No probability pattern for Thursday.

However, the channels highs in the daily range are seen as resistance 1.3995/9




AUD Weekly and Daily range

AUD is currently in a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe.

the AUD has reached the first target @ ...9796

And is likely to continue down into .9633

Trailing resistance @ .9837 until then.

Note:- a break and extend pattern could continue down into next Monday, and as far as the Quarterly level @ .9564

However, it could also swing up from .9633 and retest next week's 50% level, and once again push down into next week's lows.

Therefore once the AUD reaches .9633 and Thursday's lows it becomes a random pattern within the 12 hour ranges

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Yesterday's break of support (9985/93) and my expectation that the AUD would complete the 11pm lows, which matched the March lows @ 9796.

My view is that the AUD will still continue down, and could go as low as the 1st Quarter channel (Yellow).

Trend guide and resistance @ .9955/65



Euro Weekly and Daily range

Remains choppy around the highs...

No probability pattern for Wednesday's trading

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th March 2011, AUD, Daily part 2

AUD monthly and Weekly

We have the same patterns in the AUD as index markets, with a breakout of the 3-week lows @ .9985/93

If it continues with the breakout, the downside is the MARCH lows, and as low as the First quarter channel @ 9564

15th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per weekly report, the Trend bias is to continue upwards in MARCH...

Today's trading is based on whether Tuesday breaks out and continues upwards...

or price reverses back down from the monthly highs, using the brown filter as a trend guide

If the Euro reverses down, then Tuesday's support (random) comes into play @ 1.3924

AUD Weekly and Daily range

My view was that the AUD would continue upwards this week, but Monday failed to remain above the channel highs @ 11am.

Currently price is below the channel highs @ 1.0122 on Tuesday, which has been acting as resistance for a number of weeks.

Today's trend guide is the brown filter, with blue channel lows as random support.

I still have the view that the AUD is trying to rise upwards, but at this stage, there's no probability pattern that suggests Tuesday will be the day.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report, I'm bullish on the euro using the weekly level as a trend guide.

Currently the euro has stalled during Sunday's trading.

There are two patterns that can play out...

#1) rises up from the brown filter towards Monday's highs

#2) Weekly level pushes the Euro back down during the first 12 hours.(random support @ 1.3875

no probability pattern which will play out



AUD Weekly and Daily range

As per Weekly report I'm Bullish on the AUD, as long as it remains above the Weekly 50% level.

Currently being supported, but I would like to see the AUD trading above the white channel after 11am.

Trend guide @ 1.0112

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th MARCH 2011, USD, EUR, AUD Weekly

USD Monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that there was a potential up swing early in the week and back into the Weekly 50% level.

Current expectation is that the USD is moving down in the MARCH lows next week.

Once it get to those lows, I'm not sure whether it will continue down, or once again find some support until the start of the 2nd Quarter in April

Euro monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that the Euro would move back down in the first 2-days and retest the breakout.

That played out, but then Thursday continued lower, until Friday's late reversal upwards.

Next week's expectation is to continue upwards....

However, any strength in the euro will be determined by the upper Weekly level @ 1.3954, as the trend continues towards 1.4086

AUD Weekly and daily range

There has been MARCH 50% level support, and now there's a bias to continue towards the MARCH highs @ 1.03.

However, we once again have the upper Weekly levels, that continually stall the trend.

There's a Friday low pattern, which once again suggests the first 2-days will rise upwards
.
What I notice is that, Friday's rally has put price above the intraday channel highs (white)

Those highs have been stalling the price from rising during the day

Therefore next week's level at 1.01 is the trend guide and support.

As long as price remains above the Weekly 50% level

11th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily range

My view yesterday was that the Euro would push upwards, as long as it remained above 1.3898.

That changed with a breakout of Thursday's lows, confirmed with more weakness in the 2nd 12 hour range towards the channel lows.

There are two possible patterns on Friday....

Continues down towards Friday's lows, which matches the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3704

or it swings upwards in the frist 12 hours and retests the breakout, using 1.3845-56 as resistance


AUD Weekly and Daily range

Completes the move down into the MARCH 50% level @ .9993

There are two possible patterns on Friday...

continues down into Friday's lows @ .9965

or price swing back towards 1. 0035

if price is above that level during the 2nd 12 hours, then there is a possible swing back towards the 2nd 12 hour channel highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

The euro is remaining above the previous week highs, and if the trend is going to move back towards the highs, then Thursday's level @ 1.3898 is the trend guide and support


AUD Weekly and Daily

Yesterday's view was that Wednesday could move lower if it was trading below the Weekly 50% level, which it did for a number of hours, until buyers pushed price back above.

Based on the levels in the daily range, there's no probability pattern.

White channel lows and highs are seen as random support and resistance levels for Thursday.

Trend guide remains the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0087

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Euro has reversed down over the first 2 days, as part of a Friday high reversal pattern and retesting last week's breakout @ 1.3878

Normally we would see the euro swing back towards the highs, and then continue towards the Weekly highs by Friday or next week

However, the Monthly highs in March could see further weakness.

Today:- during the first 12 hours until 11pm (Sydney time)there isn't an ideal set-up to trade other than looking for a 41 pip move in the euro towards the channel highs, using the brown filter as a trend guide


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern


At the start of the week I was looking for the first 2 days to move upwards.

Yesterday I had the view that price would push downward because of the intra-day break pattern.

The first 2-days has now completed, but instead of moving higher it has moved into a 2-day 'stall' pattern, which can often see further weakness over the next 3-days.

However, there isn't a set-up to be trading shorts during the first 12 hours, and as long as it's above the weekly 50% level, Wednesday could push back towards the channel highs, which has been a resistance pattern for the past 2 weeks @ 1.0161

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

Euro Weekly and daily

Based on the current price action, the euro looks to be following a move down from the March highs and rotating back towards the lower Weekly level.

This is to retest last week's breakout @ 1.3878

trend guide to keep an eye on is the lower channel in the daily range @ 1.3960, if below it's part of a down day.

We currently have a breakout of the channel low @ 1.3974 in Monday's daily range, which suggests more short-term weakness.

Any intra-day strength during the first 12 hours and resistance is around the daily channel highs.

AUD Weekly and Daily range

I was looking for more strength on Monday, as part of Friday's support pattern.

Instead, we once again have 2nd 12 hour resistance patterns in the daily range, resulting in a daily channel break, which can push lower on Tuesday.

Whilst the AUD remains above the Weekly 50% level, Tuesday is still seen as a potential 2nd UP day, but at this stage I don't have a high probability 'long' set-up using the daily range.

Therefore, the support is the Weekly 50% level @ 1.0087, with an intra-day trend guide @ 1.0135 (random resistance)

In conclusion:- if Tuesday remains choppy resulting in a 2nd 'stall' day, then from Wednesday onwards we could see selling pressure on the AUD

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th March 2011, EUR, AUD, Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

As per Weekly report:- Friday's 5-day support pattern often suggests a trend that continues upwards over the next 2-days.

Trend guide @ 11am @ 1.0144

A breakout of the Weekly highs by Tuesday, suggest mores gains

Euro Weekly and Daily range

Two pattern play to start the week...

either it continues towards the Weekly highs....

or moves down into a 2-day reversal pattern.

no probability in which direction, use the levels in the daily range