Forex Spread: 2013

AUD/USD Forex 24th December 2013

AUD/USD Primary & Monthly Cycles

December lows currently supporting the trend,

whilst the overall bias is to move down into the 2014 lows/BUY ZONE, as part of the Primary Break-n-Extend pattern.

Short-term resistance during the rest of December #A @ 89.90

Until those lows are reached, then 1st Quarter resistance around 91.40/70

AUD/USD 12th December 2013 Monthly Reports

AUD Primary cycles and breakout patterns (Dilernia Principles) suggests the AUD will continue down towards the 2014 yearly lows. We've just recently seen Secondary support come into play around .8870 and swing back up into the 50% level @ .9730 (#3)....

My view is that the Primary cycles will now come into play and push the AUD downward, as part of a Primary break & extend pattern (Revious Report)

AUD Primary cycles

Primary Cycles continue to play out as expected, with an overall trend bias to continue down into the 2014 lows, and the next long-term BUY zone.

Any short-term buying, and the expectation is that the 2014 yearly 50% level will form resistance, until those lows are reached.

AUS/USD 2nd November 2013 Monthly Report

AUD Primary cycles

AUD Primary cycles and breakout patterns (Dilernia Principles) suggests the AUD will continue down towards the 2014 yearly lows.

We've just recently seen Secondary support come into play around .8870 and swing back up into the 50% level @ .9730 (#3)....

My view is that the Primary cycles will now come into play and push the AUD downward, as part of a Primary break & extend pattern.

AUD/USD 1st October 2013 Monthly Report

We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly cycles, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.....

my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen. If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014. (AUD Report 3rd August 2013)

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

We can see this exactly happen.... the completion of the break and extend pattern (#1 & #2), and now the rotation up into the Yearly lows and resistance, even though it happened in less than 2-months.

My view is that the AUD will drop down and follow the Primary cycle break & Extend pattern into the 2014 Yearly lows.

How quickly that happens will depend on when the FED decides to ease back on stimulus.

if it continues into the end of this year, then the 2014 Yearly 50% level is the resistance level for a move down.

If it happens later in this Quarter, then the 2014 Yearly lows will drop lower, and the AUD will continue down.

AUD/USD 1st September 2013 Monthly Reports

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary cycles suggests the AUD will continue down into the Yearly lows in 2014, as part of the Dilernia Principle of break & extend Patterns.

Currently that same pattern in the Quarterly cycles has played out, and this is where Support has formed during this Quarter around .8870 from 1.0137

We can also see the monthly cycles resistance zones, and this may continue during the last month in September @ .9179 and see the trend push lower in the 4th Quarter towards those Yearly lows in 2014.

However, never discount a larger rotation upwards in the 4th Quarter, as it moves back into the 2013 Yearly lows, that aligns with the Yearly 50% level in 2014.

AUD/USD 3rd AUGUST 2013 Monthly Report

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

Primary breakout suggests the trend will continue down into the 2014 Yearly lows, as part of the break and extend pattern.

We can now see the completion of the break and extend pattern in the Quarterly highs, from the 2nd Quarter down into the 3rd quarterly lows @ .8874.

There could be some weakness down into the August lows @ (Support right chart), but my view is that the AUD should try and move back up towards the 2013 yearly lows, which aligns with the 2014 50% level:- around .9457. This will probably take 3-6 months for it to happen.

If that's the case, then this level is seen as a major resistance zone in 2014.

However, how will the market react if the Reserve continues to cut rates, putting more pressure on the AUD to drop further.

In conclusion:- Technically, the AUD should swing upwards.

Fundamentally, cutting rates favours the Primary 'bear trend'

29th June 2013 AUD Weekly Report

AUD Primary & Monthly cycles

June Monthly BUY zones held for 5 days, but then it didn't.

And as Mentioned on the 25th MAY, treat the AUD as if it's in a bear trend for the next 2 years, and June's failure provides the proof of that.

Resistance as shown, which aligns with the 2013 Yearly lows.

8th June 2013 AUD Weekly Report

AUD Primary Monthly cycles

AUD BUY zone....

expectation is that the AUD will swing up towards the June 50% level...

and as high as the MARCH low breakout @ 1.0131, as part of resting the breakout.

if it gets that high, might be a good idea to cash in the AUD, or book O/S holidays

25th MAY 2013 AUD Weekly report

AUD Primary and Monthly cycles

Primary cycles are weak, even though there is now some support around the 2013 Yearly lows.

However, we must treat the trend as if it's going down for the next 2 years

There's a breakout of the 3-month lows (#A) that should see the market continue down into #B the BUY zone.

However, if the Primary lows supports the AUD, then we could instead have a swing upwards in the last 5-day of MAY, and a 3-week counter-trend rally, as part of retesting the breakout/June 50% level (#C)

if that happens, then it's likely to set-up further weakness down into #B)

27th April 2013 AUD Weekly Report

AUD Monthly & Weekly cycles

Trend bais is DOWN, as it's below the higher timeframe 50% levels...

Trend guide is 1.0271

if above, the swing is back up into the Weekly 50% level and Monthly 50% level:- Resistance

Note:- THIS IS THE LAST FOREX REPORT

26th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

The AUD could continue to move up towards the APril 50% level, as it's above the 5-day 50% level.

However, the Weekly level @ 1.0315 could also keep a lid on the AUD rising

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Price action favours a move downward...

Trend guide the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3015

25th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is DOWN, it's below the Yearly, Quarterly, & Monthly 50% levels

However, there's a potential upmove with the completion of the Weekly break & extend pattern that could see the AUD rise up towards the previous week's lows @ 1.0350

In the short-term, the Weekly level @ 1.0315 is seen as resistance.

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Same applies on the Euro...

Trend bias is DOWN

trend guide is the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level (12 hour channel highs)

24th April 2013 AUD & EURO Daily Report

DOW S&P Weekly cycles

Trend bias is to conrtinue lower, but Wednesday could see an early rise...

Random Resistance is the 5-day 50% level @ Weekly level @ 1.03135

don't hold shorts above those levels,as it will swing back towards the April 50% level @ 1.0364 (resistance)

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is DOWN, 5-day 50% level/12 hour channels/ & Weekly 50% level is seen as resistance

Random Support Wednesday's lows.

23rd April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is to continue lower:- April lows then May lows, as price is now below the Monthly & Quarterly 50% levels.

Random Support :- Weekly & Tuesday's lows

Random resistance 5-day 50% level and 12 hour channel highs

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is to continue lower, as per Weekly Report towards the Quarterly 50% level @ 1.2915

but a breakout of the 12 hour channels, could attract buying in the Euro....

22nd April 2013 Daily Report AUD & Weekly cycles

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Overall trend bias is to continue lower, as per Weekly Report, and also the breakout of the Weekly lows towards this week's lows (random Support)

However, the yearly 50% level could continue to provide Support, and get price to move back towards the April 50% level.

Random Resistance 5-day 50% level.

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Monthly cycles suggest a move downward, as it's below the April 50% level & single monthly highs (RED)

12 hour channel highs (white) Resistance

20th April 2013 AUD & Euro Weekly Report

AUD Primary and Monthly cycles

Monthly cycles look weak, as it's below the Quarterly 50% levels, with a down target towards $1.01...

However, the 2013 Yearly 50% level is a random support level..

We also can see the coming together of the Monthly channels, which is going to result in a breakout either way.

The Question is, which way?

Euro Monthly & Weekly cycles

Euro has stalled around the single monthly highs & April 50% level....

Random Support @ 1.2915 (2nd Quarterly 50% level)

AUD & Euro 19th April 2013 Daily reports

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Below the April 50% level and Weekly level, the trend bias is down into the Weekly 50% level

random support Friday's lows

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Same applies with the AUD, as it's below Support...

however, there could be an early rise on Friday if inside the 12 hour channels towards the 5-day 50% level:- Resistance.

Random Support Friday's lows

18th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Reports

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

AUD once again showing weakness with a confirmed break of the Weekly lows & April 50% level.

12 hour channels are the trend guide.

Random Support Thursday's lows

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

The Euro is back into showing weakness once again...

Trend guide and resistance @ 1.3070

Random support Thursday's support

17th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

If Tuesday ends up closing back above the Weekly lows, and inside the 12 hour channel (white), then a swing up towards the Weekly 50% level is on the cards for the next 2 days.

Below 1.0355 is seen as weak

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Weekly highs random resistance...

if there's weakness today because of this, then the 5-day 50% level and Tuesday's highs are seen as support @ 1.3126

16th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily reports

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Bearish patterns appearing in the AUD with a break of the 5-day lows, the Weekly lows, & also below the Quarterly 50% level.

Therefore there's resistance around @ 1.0355 - 10364..

Random Support Tuesday's lows

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

No breakout of the 5-day lows...

but below the 5-day 50% level and Weekly level @ 1,3077, the trend bias is down...

15th April; 2013 AUD & Euro Daily reports

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is UP, as part of the Weekly break & extend towards this week's highs & then the April highs.

Random resistance:- 12 hour channel highs @ Weekly level @ 1.0536/66

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is UP, as long as it's above the April 50% levels...

Note:- the key level in the Monthly cycles, as per Weekly Report :- single monthly highs & April 50% level.

13th April 2013 AUD & Euro Weekly Reports

Euro Monthly & Weekly cycles

Trend guide is to continue up into the April highs...

As long as it's above 1.0521

Euro Monthly & Weekly cycles

The Euro Trend needs to breakout of 1.3149....

otherwise, below the April 50% level & Weekly level @ 1.3070,

the trend bias is down into the 2nd Quarterly 50% level @ 1.2915.

12th April 2013 Euro & AUD Daily reports

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

the Euro is above the April 50% level and Weekly highs, it just needs to breakout of Friday's highs.

Otherwise the Monthly cycle levels, as shown in the Weekly report @ 1.3149 is the key resistance level, which matches Friday's highs

Trailing Support, as shown in the 12 hour range

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Weekly highs @ 1.0485 is Support, along with the Weekly level & 5-day 50% level @ 1.0493

Target:- April highs @ 1.0616

11th April 2012 AUD & Euro Daily report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Above Weekly highs, and target it the April highs @ 1.0616

Random Resistance Thursday's highs

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Euro has hit resistance..

Trend guide the Weekly highs & 12 hour channels

Random Support:- Weekly level @ 1.3027 & 5-day 50% level.

10th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily cycles

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

AUD has hit resistance around the Weekly cycles...

However, the Monthly cycles suggest more upside

12 hour support, as shown.

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

The Euro has hit major resistance, as shown in the Weekly report....

if it's going to break higher, 12 hour support should hold...

or a 5-day breakout on Wednesday, and a continuation higher into Friday.

9th April 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Reports

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is Strong, as per Weekly Report...

However, it now needs to clear the Weekly 50% level and 12 hour channel highs...

otherwise the 1st 12 hours and push down into the Daily Support & April 50% level once again

Euro Weekly & Daily cycles

Trend bias is UP into the April 50% level...

but at this stage it has hit Weekly resistance @ 1.3027

12 hour channels are the trend guide, as to whether it continues up into Tuesday's highs

or drops down into 12 hour support

8th Apirl 2013 AUD & Euro Daily Report

AUD Weekly & Daily cycles

as per Weekly Report, the AUD is right on 2nd Quarterly support @ 1.0368.

This is going to define whether the trend remains robust (UP) or begins to unwind towards the lower monthly support levels.

Currently, the Daily cycles are showing weakness, and the medium-term trend is also showing weakness, as it's below the Weekly 50% level:- random Resistance @ 1.0423