19th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Above the blue filter and price is moving back towards the 3-day high filter and 5-day 50% level.

I'm still bearish.....

don't short trade above the 3-day filter, which matches the 5-day 50% level.

Below .6373 and price expectation is down into Thursday's lows

Euro weekly and 3-day pattern

Same as the AUD:- blue filter trend guide

3-day filter resistance.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level resistance, but I wouldn't go long on GBP unless verified with a daily HOOK pattern.

Bullish pattern would be to be trading above the 3-day highs and 5-day 50% level, that could see a move towards the 5-day highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD weekly and 3-day pattern

All global equity and currency markets are looking to push down towards their February lows.

Breakout of the 5-day lows and expectation that price move continue down on Wednesday.

5-day 50% level and blue filter resistance.

No guarrentee that Wednesday's 5-day lows will hold


Euro Weekly and 3-day

As expectation as the AUD

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter trend guide...

GBP looks far more supported than the others, but the bias is to continue down.

If GBP is trading above the 5-day 50% level, which is also above the 3-day break and Weekly 50% level, then there is a bias to move upwards.

17th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Flat trading on Monday day with the public holiday in the US.

3-day filter is random resistance, but based on the price action so far it's not a higher probability pattern.

The 5-day 50% level could push the market lower, but with the lower weekly open the ideal pattern would be to see currencies move up towards their 5-day highs and then enter shorts around those levels @ .6638

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

No probability pattern to trade the Euro on Tuesday, but whilst it's above the blue filter then price should rise back into the 3-day filter.

The 3-day filter is random resistance over a single 4 hour period.....

But as pointed out in the AUD thread, it would best to short trade the Euro around the 5-day highs:- green channel tops.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Is that a Weekly HOOK pattern, or about to begin a Weekly rejection pattern from a higher Daily open....

That is simply going to be defined by the 3-day filter.

A weekly HOOK pattern would be a move above the 3-day filter and expectation price is heading towards the 5-day highs.

A rejection pattern would need to be trading below the 3-day blue filter @ 1.4220, which makes it hard to favour the rejection pattern on Tuesday at this stage other than a 4 hour push down into 1.4220

16th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Lower open and below the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels, with the expectation that price is trying to continue down into the February lows.

Not an easy trading day but if looking to short then it has to be the 5-day 50% level.

However, as pointed out in the book, whenever the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level, these days often result in an up move and higher close.

A higher close could see the AUD move back into the Weekly 50% level and Monday’s highs @ 6633 and stall.

But it could also see a move towards the 5-day highs, but that will only occur during US timezone.

In conclusion:- the trend is down and below the 5-day 50% level, therefore there is an expectation that prices should continue down.

However, as pointed out, if it’s above the 3-day filter during GMT trading then I’d watch to see if any higher prices occur with a breakout of .6633



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

There is no probability pattern on the Euro….

3-day filter random resistance.

5-day lows @ 1.2685 random support.


GBP Weekly & 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level trend guide along with the 3-day filter as resistance.

Random support the 5-day lows @ 1.4042.

Keep in mind the position of the 3-day filter and the 5-day 50% level (below).

don't short trade above the 3-day filter.

Weekly Reports AUD, GBP, Eur 14 FEB 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

After last Week's rally I wasn't convinced that currencies against the USD would continue upwards.

Even though some were trading above their Monthly 50% levels, the failure to double bottom around the Monthly lows in February means there is a lack of probability that prices will move higher.

Last Week was about shorting the Higher Weekly open using the Weekly 50% level is a trend guide, with the view of price come back down into the February 50% level.

And the Weekly 50% level will be the trend guide for next week.

I'm still bearish on the AUD down into February's lows.

But there could be a Weekly 5-day rotation pattern that closes higher:- Monthly 50% level support, Weekly 50% level support, and lower Weekly open.

At this stage I would need some verifying patterns to confirm the latter, otherwise we still need to trade on the short side.

AUD 3-day pattern

The Weekly 50% level was the trend guide, and Monday provide a short trade but no follow through on the downside.

Tuesday ended up more ideal, because the 3-day filter along with the Weekly 50% level provided the short-set-up to continuation down with the break of the 5-day 50% level.

But what made it even more valid was the S&P's drop on Tuesday, sending all Index markets lower and the majority of currencies lower.

There is only 1 or 2 probability patterns per week, and Tuesday's trading was it.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Last week's up move was verified by the Daily HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level, but I was still looking for a reversal back down.

And once below the Monthly 50% level along with a higher Weekly open, Tuesday provided the ideal set-up.

Next Week:- expectation of lower prices into February's lows, but the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide


GBP 3-day pattern

Monday pushed higher hitting the 3-day filter, and Tuesday followed with another short-set-up and sell-off down into Wednesday's lows:- 2-day pattern.

Besides Friday's late spike above the 3-day filter and failure, there was nothing to suggest higher prices on Friday compared to last week.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Still expecting lower prices into February's lows, and the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide.

Last Week the Euro was choppy and not providing any ideal set-ups for day traders.

Even though the Weekly 50% level resisted price and the trend is down, compared to the AUD & GBP is wasn't a good spread to be trading compared to the others.

Euro just didn't have the same higher Weekly open as last week to drive a large trend down, unlike AUD and GBP.

And next week the Euro looks much the same as the past 2 weeks....Choppy

The best trades on the Euro look like shorting the 5-day high and holding.

Daily Reports out on Monday after 11am

13th Feb 2009 EUR, AUD, GBP Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

All currencies the trend continues to move down, and the 3-day filters are still resistance levels.

Until they break higher, and there is no probability they will break higher keep trading on the short side, or take quick profits on the long side.

As I mentioned in yesterday's report, US Index markets patterns help influence the movement of currencies.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

same applies on the Euro:- 3-day filter resistance

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Trend continues down and the blue filter is influencing the price action.

Friday is trading below the Weekly 50% level but above the blue filter, which looks like it will move upwards the 3-day filter.

3-day filter resistance and target on the downside would be Friday's lows.

In conclusion:- Like last Friday there could be a rally but there are no set-ups to trade the rallies unless buying the 3-day filter breakout.

Last Week in the S&P there was a HOOK pattern on the Weekly 50% level which pushes prices higher on Friday. This gave an idea that currencies could rally on Friday.

Therefore the US market report later on is going to help give an idea whether Friday continues down or not.

12th Feb 2009 EUR, AUD, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day Patten

AUD trading below the monthly 50% level and below all timeframe 50% levels.

If the trend is going to continue down then the blue filter @ 6525 is going to define whether price moves down into Thursday’s lows….

Or moves back towards the 3-day filter.

The 3-day filter is resistance…

However, if the Monthly 50% level is going to be a valid support zone even though price is trading below it at this stage, then the 3-day filter needs to breakout @ 6635.

If that’s going to happen it’s more than likely to happen during the US timezone.

The Trend is down and expectation is to continue down, but the 3-day filters are the first sign that a reversal pattern is taking place.

Above 6635 and the view is price is heading back towards the Weekly 50% level.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Trend is down and remains down.

I would only trade longs on the Euro if there is a daily Hook pattern over the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore I’d wait for that to happen and then use the Weekly 50% level as support the next day.

A 240 min bar closure above the 3-day filter, could give the first hint that an UP day is going to happen.




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Bearish on GBP.

Text book Patten has continue down into Wednesday’s from Tuesday’s breakout.

Normally when the trend continues down it often re-tests the break (Tuesday) before the overall trend continues lower.

If that is the case then the trend guide on Thursday should by defined by the blue filter @ 1.4415.

Below and it’s pushing down into Thursday’s lows.

Above could see the move back towards the 5-day 50% level (higher daily close).

I don’t know when price will be above 1.4415, but it could be capped below this level until the US timezone and if currencies are going higher then traders should use the 3-day filters (blue or Yellow) as trend guides

10th Feb 2009 EUR, AUD, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD completes the move down into the February 50% level and Tuesday’s lows.

If AUD is rising higher then around these levels the AUD should find support, but I’m not expecting a rally up off this level.

In fact whilst below the 5-day 50% level there is an expectation of another down day into Wednesday’s lows.

At this stage it’s too early to be going long on the AUD.

When trading currencies especially during the US timezone, they often follow the price action in the US markets. My view on US markets can often be used as an idea about trading the currencies during that Time zone.

In the US markets I’m not expecting an UP day on Wednesday (read Daily report later).

Therefore for those who think the AUD is going higher, then I would wait 1 more day and then make a decision after that.

5-day 50% level and blue filter random resistance

At this stage I’m not convinced the monthly trend is going higher simply because prices aren’t moving up from the double monthly low patterns




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern


I still continue to believe that prices are going lower in February, but the Euro has been quiet erratic this week compared to the AUD and GBP.

The Weekly 50% level is resistance and the 3-day filters are trend guides.

The only way I can see the Euro going higher would be to have a HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level:-

Daily close above the Weekly 50% level with the expectation of higher prices into Friday.

Therefore at this stage trade with the trend if already Short from the higher prices on Tuesday.

Wednesday no probability pattern





GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Reversal down from the Monthly 50% level:- 3-day filter sell off.

Resulted in a breakout of Tuesday's lows.

Expectation Tuesday lows will form resistance and push prices down towards Wednesday's lows.

5-day 50% level resistance.

no probability of going long on Wednesday, but those watching the US timezone....

Wednesday's low and Weekly 50% level Random support

10th Feb 2009 EUR, AUD, GBP/USD part 2

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same pattern as yesterday but this time helped by price being pushed
down by the 3-day filter.

I still have the view of the AUD heading back toward February's 50% level before any up move.

However those who want to watch for any long positions on Tuesday,
price would need to bounce off the 5-day 50% level @ 6649 and then
break above the 3-day filter @ 6766

As it will probably push the AUD up towards the Weekly highs 69+

At this stage that's not a set-up to trade longs, it's just something to
keep an eye on if trading during the GMT-US timezone.

If price had already bounced off the monthly 50% level and this exact
same pattern was occuring then you would be looking to BUY the 5-day
50% level and add longs above the 3-day filter:- breakout.

Stick to shorting and manage positions:- partial exit +68

9th Feb 2009 EUR, AUD, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

There is still an expectation that price would come down from a higher weekly open and back towards the February 50% level...

3-day filter trend guide...

A bounce off the 5-day 50% level and break above the 3-day filter would probably send the AUD up towards the Weekly highs

EURO Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same view as the Weekly report, bias to continue down whilst below the Weekly 50% level.

3-day filter trend guide.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter top on Monday and now pushing down.

With the expectation price is moving down down towards the 5-day 50% level, but could go as far as Tuesday's lows.

3-day filter trend guide on Tuesday:-