FOREX EUR/USD 1st September 2008

EURO Daily and 3-day pattern

Euro pushing down into Monday's low, and could go as far the Weekly lows.

Usually I would look for a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level on Monday, or as high as the 3-day filter, but price action so far doesn't favour any 'long' trades.

No probability pattern on Monday.

FOREX AUD/USD 1st September 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern

AUD pushing down from the Weekly balance point and towards Monday's lows.

Usually on Monday I would like to see a rotation back into the 5-day 50% level, but looking at the price action it doesn't look like any risk-reward patterns.

No probability pattern on Monday

FOREX GBP/USD 1st September 08

GBP Daily....

Weekly and Monday's lows :- random support...

And rotation upwards must be verified with the brown filter....

No probability pattern on Monday

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 30 August 2008

AUD Weekly and Daily

Last day of August, and instead of price trading around September 50% level looking for a continuation down, it looks like price is continuing down into September lows without the monthly reversal pattern.

The Weekly balance point has been defining the trend within the 5-day pattern, and next week's balance point should be used for the overall trend...

Note:- above the Weekly balance point and the expectation is that price is moving up into September 50% level. If the trend is going to continue down after a test of September 50% level it should align with a higher Weekly open the following week.


AUD 3-day pattern

Only 2 trades last week...

1 loss and 1 winner (stopped on breakeven after partial) , as previous described.

If I solely concentrated on AUD and didn't trade anything else, then there were a few high probability patterns last week that I could have taken.

But out of laziness or simply the set-up didn't align with my time zone.......

But when using the R41 ranges along with the Spiral filters, we can see multi-levels and patterns within the market providing a minimum 41 pip range moves along with Swing and Momentum patterns.

Monday's Report out after 11am

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 30 Aug 2008

Euro Weekly and Daily

Last day of August, and instead of price trading around September 50% level looking for a continuation down, it looks like price is continuing down into September lows without the monthly reversal pattern.

The Weekly balance point has been defining the trend within the 5-day pattern, and next week's balance point should be used for the overall trend...

Note:- above the Weekly balance point and the expectation is that price is moving up into September 50% level. If the trend is going to continue down after a test of September 50% level it should align with a higher Weekly open the following week.


EURO 3-day pattern

4 trades last week:- 3 winners (2 stopped on breakeven after partial exit Monday and Thursday)

1 loss on Friday, as previously described.

Monday report after 11am

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 30th August 200

GBP Weekly and Daily

Last day of August, and instead of price trading around September 50% level looking for a continuation down, it looks like price is continuing down into September lows without the monthly reversal pattern.

The Weekly balance point has been defining the trend within the 5-day pattern, and next week's balance point should be used for the overall trend...

Note:- above the Weekly balance point and the expectation is that price is moving up into September 50% level. If the trend is going to continue down after a test of September 50% level it should align with a higher Weekly open the following week.



GBP 3-day pattern

Only 1 trade last week on GBP, which matched my timeframe.

And price didn't rise high enough to move into any short positions other than Monday's sell pattern from the 5-day 50% level, which matched the previous Friday breakout.

Monday's report out after 11am....

FOREX EUR/USD 29th August 2008 part 2

Euro 11:30


of all the three spreads the Euro looked like heading down towards the lows once again...



Went short @ 1.4711 :- 3-day filter and R41 spiral top



with the expectation that the Euro would complete the R41 pip down by 11am sydney time, and then continue down from the 5-day 50% level....

By 11.00 am the euro didn't move down but closed above the 5-day 50% level...

Stopped 1.4727 -16 pips...

No more trading on the Euro today...

no more Updates on Forex today

FOREX EUR/USD 29th August 2008

Euro Daily

No follow through on the upside on Thursday towards the 5-day highs, instead drifting back down into a lower close.

I'm still expecting a move back towards the September 50% level, which I though would have occurring by now, but it looks like the Weekly balance point isn't allowing any upside moves.

Next Week's balance point will once again be used to define the trend.

Friday:- looks to be pushing down into Friday's lows, which could go as far as the Weekly lows.

I would normally let Friday close out and then trade again from next week, but if it's below the 3-day filter on Thursday, & Friday's 5-day 50% level after 11am est, then there is a bias to push lower into the close.

Important levels on Friday are:- 5-day 50% level and brown filter:- (No long trades for me on Friday until next week)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 29th August 2008

AUD Daily

No follow through on the upside on Thursday towards the 5-day highs, instead drifting back down into a lower close.

I'm still expecting a move back towards the September 50% level, which I though would have occurring by now, but it looks like the Weekly balance point isn't allowing any upside moves.

Next Week's balance point will once again be used to define the trend.

No probability pattern on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 29th August 2008

GBP Daily

No follow through on the upside on Thursday towards the 5-day 50% level, instead drifting back down into Thursday's lows.

I'm still expecting a move back towards the September 50% level, which I though would have occurring by now, but it looks like the Weekly balance point isn't allowing any upside moves.

Next Week's balance point will once again be used to define the trend.

No probability pattern on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREx AUD/USD 28th August 2008 part 3

AUD Daily & 5-day pattern ( 23.09 )

Partial exit 8675 + 37

and holding into the 5-day highs @ 88cents.

It's either going to stall @ the Weekly balance point and take out my trailing stop, or continue towards the 5-day highs...

Forex EUR/USD & AUD/USD 28th part 3

Euro part 3 22:50

41 pip completion and partial exit but no follow through on the upside..

Stopped on breakeven from entry & no more trading on Euro today. +36 pips

GBP/USD stopped on breakeven from entry after partial exit (no more trading)

AUD 10:50

Switched into AUD and repeat the same patterns:- 41 pip and hold.

R41 spiral low matching 5-day 50% level...

Long .8638 (stops 8628)...

FOREX EUR/USD 28th August 2008 part 2

Euro 19:01

Expectation that if the Euro was trading above the 5-day 50% level, then I would like to see a 41 point reversal align with 19:00..

Long 1.4749 target R41 pip and upside target 1.4830..

(stops 1.4726) or close below 1.4739 @ 23.00

FOREX GBP/USD 28th August 2008 part 2

GBP Daily 15:45

GBP pushing up from the brown filter and hopefully it can move back towards the 5-day 50% level.

11am pattern aligned with the R41 pip low and exit on r90 pip high

Entry 1.8330 partial exit 1.8374 +44 pips (breakeven stops from entry)

and holding

AUD and Euro look like they have taken off on the upside, hopefully GBP can follow.

GBP has risen 95 pips, so it can easily reverse back down...

FOREX EUR/USD 28th August 2008

Euro daily

Of all the spreads the Euro looks like it's setting up for a higher move on Thursday :- 3-day filter breakout and 5-day 50% level.

But only if it's trading above those levels after 19:00 Sydney time...(GMT hours).

Bullish pattern would be a higher move and re-test using the R41 spiral low matching the breakout and continuing higher.

Thursday will be opening around some critical levels which could push either way:- down or finally break higher.

Looking at Wednesday's price action:- rejection from the 3-day filter on Wednesday will on most occassions favour more downside from Thursday's 3-day filter.

So at this stage it's an each way bet on Thursday :- keep an eye on levels and timeframes.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREx AUD/USD 28th August 2008

AUD Daily

AUD reversed down on Wednesday from the 5-day 50% level, but not from my entry at the 3-day filter.

Once price closed above the filter @ 19:00, I exitted my shorts saving 10 pips (-15 pips)

3-day filter

Thursday:- there is no probability pattern on Thursday.

Thursday will be opening around some critical levels which could push either way:- down or finally break higher.

Looking at Wednesday's price action:- 5-day 50% level and rejection back under the 3-day filter will on most occassions favour more downside from Thursday's 3-day filter.

I would need to look at price action from 3pm onwards...

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FORES GBP/USD 28th August 2008

GBP Daily

Picture tells the story and price is continuing down into the Weekly lows..

Thursday and Weekly lows random support using the brown filter for any rotation back towards the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level...

No probability pattern on Thursday, other than keeping any eye on price action during the day.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREx EUR/USD 27th August 08 part 2

Euro 17:00

follow on from the AUD thread and Euro entry...

Because of the position of the Brown filter (below) i've exitted shorts on Euro

@ 1.4675 + 53 pips (double R41 pip)

If the euro was coming down from the 5-day 50% level and pushing down from the brown filter then I would hold for a larger move down...

no more trades on euro today...

FOREX AUD/USD 27th August 2008 part 2

AUD 15:10

AUD swing into the 3-day filter and resistance by 3pm...

Ideally there is a push down for the next 4 hours into the brown filter or 41 pips...

As pointed out in morning report:- with this double Weekly low pattern playing out, eventually price will break higher... more likely during US trading hours....

Until then......

Here is an example of this week's price action using the overall trend and the filters.

We can see the top and reverse pattern downwards from the 5-day 50% level on Monday...

The continuation down on Tuesday from 3pm

And now the 3-day filter on Wednesday... (3 pm)

The important part of each reversal pattern is the filters, the matching higher 240 minute bars...

And....

The R41 pip spiral tops....

In this instance on Wednesday (today):- matching spiral top...

The ideal pattern would be to continue down for this 4 hour period...

But if it's going to head higher, it could align perfectly with the intra-day cycle breakout which might happen later on today, if not earlier because of the change of cycle.

Note:- the important part of any pattern is the time of occurrence. Monday didn't align for me because that occurred at 11pm Monday night, but for someone in Europe or the US it sits perfectly.

And the same of any breakout on the upside today, it won't align with my timeframe, and I won't be sitting around waiting for it to happen either.

Let's see how today goes.

Entry .8600 (stops 8625)

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Same pattern on Euro:-

Short 1.4728

partial exit 1.4703 +25 pips (R41 completion)

Breakeven stops from entry or cover @ 1.4663

FOREx AUD/USD 27th August 2008

AUD Daily

AUD along with other currencies followed the same path on Tuesday down towards the Weekly lows.

There was an ideal set-up to take a short positions on Tuesday around 3pm (Sydney time), with price below the filter and coming down from an R41 pip high.

I had to step out yesterday afternoon so I didn't jump on board.

Today:- Wednesday and Weekly lows random support

Brown filter trend guide after 11am which could see price move back into the 3-day filter:- resistance.

Note:- if we subcribe to the theory of double low patterns from previous breakouts :- ie breakout of the Weekly lows and continuing down into the lows the following week or 2nd week, then we need to keep in mind that the 3-day filter will eventuatlly breakout or reverse.

This current price action in currencies is playing the 2-timeframe pattern breakout pattern (lower low), which can result a reversal upwards.

Therefore:- 3-day filter resistance with an expectation that a minimum 41 pip reversal, but after that a random pattern during US trading hours.

Either it continues down on Wednesday or breaks higher. (which doesn't suit my trading hours to be trading long positions)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREx EUR/USD 27th August 08

EURO Daily

Continuation down into the Weekly lows:- Tuesday breakout and expectation price is continuing down into Wednesday's lows.

Random Support:- Weekly lows 1.4517 and Wednesday lows

Brown filter trend guide on Wednesday for those following closely.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 27th August 2008

GBP Daily

Continuation down into the Weekly lows.

Random support Weekly and Wednesday's lows using the brown filter as a trend guide...

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 26th August 2008

Euro Daily

Monday moved higher after 7pm EST (Sydney time), as prices looked to be moving back towards the 3-day filters.

Tuesday:- 3-day filter resistance

I'm bullish on spreads only because of the view of price moving back into September 50% levels.

But at this stage nothing suggests that a UP move is going to take place on Tuesday.

If there is an UP move on Tuesday it will have to be breaking above the 3-day filter, which I can't see happening at this stage until US trading hours...

I'm much more bullish on a reversal pattern when the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level, which it's not atm.

When that happens I'm more inclined to look for long positions on the breakout above the 5-day 50% level.

Therefore:- 3-day filter resistance with an expectation that a minimum 41 pip reversal, but after that a random pattern during US trading hours.

Either it continues down on Tuesday or breaks higher. (which doesn't suit my trading hours to be trading long positions)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 26th August 2008

AUD Daily and 3-day pattern


Monday Rise up and stall at the 5-day 50% level.

I'm bullish on spreads because of the view of rotation back into September 50% levels.

I'm also bullish when the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level.

When this occurs there is more reason for a reversal pattern in the 5-day range.

But I can't see this happening until US trading hours.

Probability:- 3-day filter early resistance, but a breakout can or more likely to occur during US trading hours, which doesn't suit my trading timeframe to be trading longs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX GBP/USD 26th August 2008

GBP Daily

I'm bullish on spreads only because of the view of price moving back into September 50% levels.

But at this stage nothing suggests that a UP move is going to take place on Tuesday.

No probability pattern on Tuesday:-

If there is an UP move on Tuesday it will have to be breaking above the 3-day filter, which I can't see happening at this stage until US trading hours...

I'm much more bullish on a reversal pattern when the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level.

When that happens I'm more inclined to look for long positions on the breakout above the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX EUR/USD 25th August 2008

EUR Daily

Push down on Sunday and heading towards Monday's lows.

Random support Monday's lows.

No probability pattern on Monday.

My ideal set-up on Monday is usually to see the Euro move back towards the 3-day filter and short the high looking for a mimimum 41 pip move from GMT trading into US trading, but this looks like it's not going to happen today.

If trading above the 5-day 50% after 7pm (EST Aussie Time) that could still occur, but at this stage no probability pattern on Monday.

FOREx AUD/USD 25th August 2008

AUD Daily...

Push down on Sunday and heading down towards the Weekly lows.

Random support Monday's lows

No probability pattern on Monday

FOREx GBP/USD 25th August 2008

GBP Daily

Sunday push down towards Weekly lows:-

Random support Monday's lows..

No probability pattern on Monday

FOREX AUD/USD Weekly 23 August 2008

AUD Weekly and Daily charts

Breakout of August lows with the expectation of prices continuing lower, but i'm still factoring a counter-trend move back towards the September 50% level before the trend continues down.

This week's 5-day sideways pattern and next week's balance point (5-day 50% level), should provide a much more robust reversal if the AUD is going to swing back upwards.

I was fooled by Thursday's trading:- breakout above with the expectation of price continuing higher on Friday...

AUD 3-day pattern

A few trades this week but nothing to write home about as none of them had any follow through completing the 90-95 pip range.

Each trade completed the 41 pip range ,but each trade was stopped on breakeven entry...

Friday sold down, but it wasn't a 'short- trade' pattern because of the Thursday's breakout .

Monday's Daily report after 11.00am

FOREX EUR/USD Weekly 23 Aug 2008

Euro Weekly and Daily

Breakout of August lows with the expectation of prices continuing lower, but i'm still factoring a counter-trend move back towards the September 50% level before the trend continues down.

This week's 5-day sideways pattern and next week's balance point (5-day 50% level), should provide a much more robust reversal if the Euro is going to swing back upwards.

I was fooled by Thursday's trading:- breakout above with the expectation of price continuing higher on Friday...

EURO 3-day pattern

The previous Week I was far more active in the Euro, and the only trade I did on the euro this week was Friday's Long trade.

In hindsight it was a silly trade:- below brown filter and nowhere near support. (using a 41 spiral low)

The rest of the days nothing aligned with my own timeframe compared to the AUD and GBP.


This week I was far more active in the GBP than the euro....

Monday's Daily report after 11.00am next week.

FOREX GBP/USD Weekly 23 August 08

GBP Weekly and Daily charts

GBP breakout with the expectation of prices continuing lower, but i'm still factoring a counter-trend move back towards the September 50% level before the trend continues down.

This week's 5-day sideways pattern and next week's balance point (5-day 50% level), should provide a much more robust reversal.

GBP 3-day pattern

The Previous week on GBP I didnt trade because GBP didn't stall, it kept on trending in 1 direction from the August breakout.

This week provided 3 robust set-ups, and one 'dopey' trade on Friday, which I covered at no loss, once I realised what I was doing.

Monday and Tuesday:- 3-day filter rejection pattern towards the daily lows (95 pips)

Wednesday:- 5-day 50% level support and trade up into the 3-day filter and exit.

Friday:- long on the Thursday breakout using a 41 pip spiral bottom, but covered once I realised it was a silly trade.. no loss.

Monday's Daily report after 11.00am

FOREX UPDate 22nd August 08 part 2 & 3

GBP and Euro 3-day patterns (15:40)

Expectation forex markets are rising from the breakout of Thursday's highs, and ideally I would want to see GMT time from 15:00 begin to kick higher...

some patterns didn't play out precisely but all patterns are rising up from precise R41 pip lows, which is what I wanted to see happen...

Euro hasn't aligned perfectly so it's far riskier, GBP yes....

AUD 3-day pattern

AUD rising but the R41 pip low didn't align with the breakout and the brown filter, and my system went short, but wasn't part of a 'short' pattern trade

on sidelines...

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

GBP UPdate:- 16:40

I didn't update my GBP charts this morning so my levels were out...

Once I updated the charts the missing data filled, and price is actually below the filter....

Exit GBP to be neutral:- no positions...

Only holding EURO looking for 41 pip and hold pattern

Entry 1.4872 (Stops 1.4860)

Next Forex reports tomorrow....

FOREX AUD/USD 22nd August 08 part 2

AUD 13:10

I wanted to see how 11.00am would support price above the filter and Thursday's breakout, ideally the best support pattern would have been a 41 pip reversal down and the begin to rise from the Spiral low as it pushes Upwards...

Instead the R41 completed but Price hasn't remained above, and looks to be reversing back down into the 5-day 50% level.

No trades and doesn't look like i'll be trading AUD on Friday...

Forex 22nd August 2008

On Thursday most currencies broke out of their 3-day highs and have continued higher.

I said in last Week's reports, that later this week or next week there is an expectation that spreads are moving back towards their September 50% levels, and then the next 2-month down trend begins.

Thursday's 3-day breakout is the start of the rotation upwards.

At this stage on Friday I have a view that most currencies are heading back towards the Weekly 50% levels (resistance).

The best pattern on Friday is to see currencies find support above the Thursday high breakout and continue higher into a higher Friday close:- brown filter support.

If that happens then next week we will look for a 2-day down move before the trend continues higher next week and back towards the September 50% levels.

But if Thursday keeps rising and Friday moves into the Weekly 50% level early (GMT), then there could be a reversal back down to re-test the breakouts on Thursday....

Therefore I would like to be trading longs on Friday into the Weekly 50% levels

Daily Reports below..

FOREX EUR/USD 22nd August 2008

Euro Daily...

3-day breakout and looks to be heading back towards the Weekly 50% level.

Thursday's breakout and 5-day 50% level is the support level for any continuation higher...

Resistance Weekly highs (blue)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

FOREX AUD/USD 22nd August 2008

AUD Daily

AUD 3-day breakout and expectation price is heading higher on Friday towards the Weekly tops..

Random support Thursday's high breakout and brown filter matching Early on Friday after 11.00am

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT