1st April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Weekly 50% level support and expectation price is moving higher.

3-day filter breakout.

Tuesday’s 3-day filter @ .6890 should be used as support for Wednesday:-

Towards the 5-day highs

At this stage I’m not bearish on AUD, but if price is trading below Wednesday’s 3-day filter high and trading below the blue filter @ .6875 then price looks to be moving back to retest the April 50% level

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Bullish on the euro but I expected more upside on Tuesday.

The 5-day 50% level has resisted price, but what I wanted to see was for Wednesday to be already trading above the 3-day filter and then the expectation longs would continue upwards (support).

Currently price is below the 3-day filter @ 1.3280…..

I did mentioned that March 50% level might resist price but then find support on the other side of the April 50% level.

Above April 50% level and above the 1.3280 and expectation price is moving towards the Weekly highs

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support and price has moved back into the 5-day 50% level and stalled.

Wednesday is all about how price is trading around the April 50% level and the 3-day filter.

I would have preferred GBP to move further UP on Tuesday and formed a HOOK pattern over the 5-day 50% level, which would have set-up a continuation of the move higher into Friday.

At this stage I favour the pattern to play out, but it hasn’t been confirmed.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

31st March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD into Weekly support with the view of higher prices in April.

Most currencies have followed the same pattern of moving lower on Monday instead of testing the 3-day filter.

There is a 5-day breakout on Monday therefore I can't see too much upside on Tuesday other than re-testing the break.

Until currencies are trading above their 3-day filter, at this stage it's best to wait for some confirming patterns for long set-ups.

no probability pattern on Tuesday.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Support around the Weekly 50% levels along with Monday's lows.

Monday's re-test of the 5-day breakout didn't play out, and on Tuesday it's trade on the side of the blue filter with a bias to move upwards from support.

However, price is trading below both the March 50% level and tomorrow's April 50% levels.

Therefore Tuesday needs to move higher, and if Wednesday is going to continue higher, it should find support above the 3-day filter (tomorrow) and move UP into a higher Friday close.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP trading above the Weekly 50% level, but it's not a HOOK pattern.

Hook pattern needs to close above the Weekly 50% level along with the 5-day 50% level.

However Weekly 50% level is a random support zone along with price rising up from the 5-day lows on Monday.

3-day filter the trend guide...

Above the 3-day filter should move back towards the March 50% level, and then come back and retest the April 50% level tomorrow.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.
There is a view of lower prices before any upside in April occurs, but Monday is simply going to be defined by blue filter as a trend guide.

Lower Daily open and lower Weekly open will probably favour a higher move into the 5-day 50% level:- random resistance

And then move lower from Tuesday.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same expectation as AUD, but the euro is closer to support.

However, the 5-day breakout from Friday favours a retest of the break on Monday, but not much further.

At this stage my view in UP on Monday but stall, and could see a push down into Support on Tuesday.

Trade on the side of the blue filter




GBP Weekly and 3-day filter

GBP looks like it can begin to move higher, and I would expect that to happen early on Monday.

There is a 5-day breakout from Friday that can become resistance, which will match the 3-day filter:- resistance.

But often when the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level, another UP move can occur during the US timezone.

Therefore:- 3-day filters and 5-day 50% levels can be resistance on Monday for all 3 currencies, but there is also the possibility that Monday can close higher during the US timezone:- Higher Daily close

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 28 Mar 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that AUD would stall and move back towards the April 50% level.

Hopefully next week's 50% level will set up a move towards the Weekly highs

At this stage my view is that currencies should find support around the weekly 50% levels and make a Weekly UP move upwards

After that occurs, I can't discount a reversal back down back under the April 50% levels.

Currencies haven't reached their Yearly lows, and that is the only reason why we need to respect the Primary Trends.

If price is below the April Quarterly balance points, then the trend continues down



Euro Monthly and Weekly

Weekly pullback has played out, and this should set-up a lower Weekly open from support and a push higher this week into the Weekly highs.

After that occurs, it may or may not contiuue upwards, because I feel that Price will come back and retest the April 50% level.

If it breaks the April 50% levels, then the trend is going down.

Basically we want to be trading longs next week, but once price reaches those highs, and ideally a higher Weekly open the week after that.....

We should be short trading the 3-day filters and holding short position back into the April 50% levels.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Last week I was bullish on GBP for a move towards the March highs, but once Tuesday failed to continue the breakout (5-day high), the view was for GBP to move lower (below the 3-day filter).

Next Week I have the same view as other currencies...BUY support

But we can see how critical price is in regards to the Quarterly balance points.

It won't take much from Wednesday (1st April) onwards for Price be trading below the Quarterly balance points.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Weekly highs resisting price, and still looking for a pullback before any higher move occurs

Thursday 5-day 50% level supported the market, with the 3-day filter not resisting.

Friday’s trend guide should be the same.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same expectation as AUD ,but the Euro was choppy either side of the 3-day filter.

At this stage I still view Euro moving down.

3-day filter trend guide, along with the 5-day 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern…

I’m bullish on GBP, but not whilst below the 3-day filter, and it’s actually providing the pullback that I wanted to see.

No set-up on Friday, other than using the levels in the 5-day pattern.

3-day filter resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.


Still expecting a pullback on the AUD into April before any potential up move continues…

Simply trade on the right side of the 3-day filter



Euro Weekly 3-day pattern

Wednesday’s view was for price to follow the 5-day pattern into the 5-day lows, but once price moved back above the 50% level price went chasing the 3-day filter once again.

I have the expect same view on as the AUD, price to come down before it goes higher.

Simply trade on the Side of the 3-day filter, with a view for weakness down into the 5-day lows.

Note:- US Index markets bounced off the 10-day 50% levels, which usually sets up more gains this week.

If US markets go higher on Thursday, currencies will follow the same pattern.

Don’t short trade above the 3-day filters during Thursday.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

I’m bullish on GBP but not whilst it’s below the 3-day filter.

Currently March 50% level is supporting the market, along with the 5-day 50% level.

At this stage unless price is above the 3-day filter it makes it hard for the ideal set-up.

Preferably I would like to see GBP move down into the 5-day lows and set-up for drive upwards from there.

but that might not happen.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD trading around the March Highs, the Quarterly balance point and the Weekly highs.

At this stage I still leaning to the view that the AUD needs to pullback into the April 50% level before any potential move upwards in the 2nd Quarter.

Therefore I’m going to continue trying to short the 3-day filter, sadly Tuesday didn’t move high enough.

Wednesday:- 5-day 50% level random support
3-day filter resistance.

If trading below the 5-day 50% level there is the view that AUD should follow a 2-day pattern lower towards next week’s 50% level

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same expectation as the AUD, pullback into next Quarterly balance point.

Precise entry on the Euro on the 3-day filter and price looks to be moving down, as it heads down into the March and Weekly 50% levels.

We can currently see the 5-day 50% level supporting price, but if the Euro is going to follow the move down, then it should hit Wednesday’s 50% level and push down into the 5-day lows.

The 5-day lows, along with the higher timeframe 50% levels are viewed as support…

But any higher move upwards, needs to verify support, and then continue higher the next day from a lower daily open.

At this stage Wednesday’s 5-day low doesn’t match the higher timeframe 50% level, therefore there could be another push down into Thursday.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP is trading above the Monthly 50% level with the expectation of higher prices in March, but at this stage it’s struggling to follow through.

The past 2-days has been trading above the 3-day filter but not continuing with the breakout patterns of the 5-day highs

Unless GBP drops below the 5-day 50% level the trend remains up.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD moves up on Monday from the 3-day filter resulting in another 5-day breakout, which suggest more upside towards Tuesday’s 3-day filter.

Blue filter random @ .6991 random support, with 4 hour lows.

Not so if price is reversing down from Tuesday’s 3-day filter.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Euro didn’t rise high enough on Monday to get into shorts on the 3-day filter or Monday’s 5-day high.

Tuesday will be defined by the 3-day filter…

Below and it’s down towards the Weekly 50% level.

Above, and it can lead into another 5-day breakout.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

I'm expecting the pound to follow most other currency and Index markets and continue higher...

However it's not providing the ideal Long set-up because of the 3-day filters.

Ideally the Weekly 50% level and lower daily open would be best, but that might not happen.

trade on the side of the 3-day filter

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD already trading around the Quarterly balance point so at this stage there is an expectation that the currency will move back down to the Weekly 50% level and retest the March 50% level.

Simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same expectation as the AUD…

3-day filter trend guide along with the 5-day high @ 1.3923.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

I have more upside in GBP based on the Weekly report.

But the Monthly 50% level at this stage is pushing price back down into the Weekly 50% level.

Trade on the side of the 3-day filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 21 Mar 09

We can see the same patterns in all markets: Currencies, Equity Markets and Stocks.

March lows or near them, and reversing back into the higher timeframe 50% levels.

The next trend will simply be based on the 2nd Quarter 50% level. Either the trend continues down towards the Primary Trend lows, or the reversal continues upwards into the next Quarter highs.

All trends originate from midpoints and extend outward, and that's going to be defined by the 2nd Quarter balance point.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD has reversed back into the Quarterly balance point, if the trend is going to continue in either direction then the April level will define the trend.

Therefore there is an expectation that the remainder of the Quarter should consolidate until the next the Quarter begins.

Therefore the trading range is based on the Weekly highs and Weekly 50% level.

And for day traders, we simply look for patterns using the 3-day filter, along with the random resistance of the 5-day highs

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro has reversed back into the Quarterly balance point, if the trend is going to continue in either direction then the April level will define the trend.

Therefore there is an expectation that the remainder of the Quarter should consolidate until the next the Quarter begins.

Therefore the trading range is based on the Weekly highs and Weekly 50% level.

And for day traders, we simply look for patterns using the 3-day filter.

Once we establish the trend and potential trend in the 2nd Quarter, all traders have to do is trade on the side of the 3-day filter, and look for set-ups and 2-day extension patterns.

GBP Monthly and Weekly.

If the GBP continues the same move as the other two, then the potential to move much higher is a strong possibility:- March highs

At this stage the March 50% level is a robust resistance level, but if price is going to continue higher, then around next week's 50% level should be used as support for a potential move upwards.

Once again the April 50% level is the trend guide.

If GBP doesn't follow the move higher next week, and instead stalls and closes below the March 50% level, then there is a good chance that GBP will go lower in the 2nd Quarter.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Breakout of the Weekly highs and above the March 50% level.

Thursday’s pattern didn’t play out, as I would have liked the AUD to move back down into the 5-day 50% level and trade up into Thursday’s highs.

And Thursday’s 3-day filter and 5-day high didn’t resist price.

At this stage there looks to be a push higher on Friday towards Friday’s highs.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same expectation as the AUD, but price didn’t move down into the 5-day 50% level instead heading higher.

3-day filter is the trend guide.

And ideally this could provide a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level and exit any shorts.

However, it depends on this Weekly timeframe and whether Friday closes on it’s highs:- bottom to top close.

Using the 3-day filter pattern is doesn’t favour a higher close, but if price is above it, then don’t short it or run tight stops and keep an eye on the 4-hour patterns.



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

March 50% level completes ,and I won’t have a view until Friday closes.

Preferably a consolidation pattern around these highs and use support next week for any higher moves.

But if it’s a directional weekly close on Friday, that means another UP day to form a Weekly Breakout pattern that follows Thursday’s breakout pattern.

Price looks to be moving towards Friday’s highs and 3-day filter

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th March 2009 GBP/USD part 2

GBP Monthly and Weekly

HOOK pattern played out nicely into the March 50% level.

March 50% level is viewed as resistance, but as we have been seeing in both the AUD & Euro, currencies are blasting through them and continuing towards the 3-month highs.

It's now whether the GBP stalls or breaks out...

If it stalls then next week's 50% level will be support looking for the new move higher, otherwise GBP will probably follow AUD and Euro higher.

19th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD Weekly high breakout and above the March 50% level.

Ideal pattern for any UP move to continue would be price to come back and retest the break or 5-day 50% level.

but it also can push up into the 5-day highs.

5-day highs and 3-day filter range resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day filter support and breakout on Wednesday.

Same pattern as the AUD:-

Ideal pattern for any UP move to continue would be price to come back and retest the break or 5-day 50% level.

But price can also can push up into the 5-day highs before coming back down the next day into support.

5-day highs random resistance.

5-day 50% level support & 3-day filter lower support


GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation that GBP would move down into the Weekly balance point and then swing higher.

It did that, but the only problem was that it moved a bit too far down beforing reversing upwards.

On a Personal note, I even ran 40 pip stops and thought I would be safe, and I'd wake up on Thursday with a surprise, but it wasn't a nice surprise.

Anyway....

Expecting the same pattern as the S&P:- Hook pattern over 1.4212 and continue higher into the March 50% level and Weekly highs.

Therefore a test and support around 1.4207 and hopefully during US timezone it continues to move into a higher daily close.

Note:- GBP could move slightly down into the previous 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level before heading higher.

Trade on the side of 1.4212.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD trading between the March 50% level & Weekly highs:- resistance

But being supported around the Weekly 50% level..

Either one is eventually going to breakout, but I don’t have a ‘long' set-up to trade the AUD on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s 5-day highs resistance and Trend guide if price breakouts.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Weekly highs resistance, and 3-day filter the trend guide,

If the Euro is going higher it needs to break the 5-day high, namely 1.3158

If below the 3-day filter, then it’s part of the Weekly high resistance pattern, with the possibility of price coming back down and testing the Weekly 50% level.



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Much weaker than that others.

Push down on Tuesday in the 5-day 50% level.

If GBP is going to go higher, then it should remain above the Weekly Balance point from a lower Daily open and then follow a drive upwards towards Friday or the Weekly highs.

Introducing the 5-week 50% level allows traders an idea about the price action, therefore a higher move needs to close and breakout above this level, which matches Monday's highs.

Then that level will become support for a push upwards.

But using the 5-day pattern and 3-day filter, there doesn't seem an ideal entry unless GBP comes back down into the Weekly balance point.

• All Daily forex reports are written after 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies pushed upwards on Monday and stalled....

AUD hit the Weekly highs and the March 50% level, if it's valid resistance the AUD along with other currencies should push down.

If currencies are going the break higher, then Tuesday can be the day but there are no set-ups to position trade longs.

For day traders simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter

Euro Weekly & 3-day pattern

Weekly high resistance...

3-day filter is the trend guide either direction.

if it's going to continue higher then the 3-day filter should support price and make am ove upwards during GMT trading...

If it doesn't hold, it's back down into the Weekly 50% level.

Trade the 4 hour patterns.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter trend guide:- either direction

• All Daily forex reports are written after 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Even though there is a hunch that currencies are going slightly higher, we have a Weekly 50% level and 3-day filter.

This would normally resist the market and push it lower.

Trade accordingly

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

If the euro keep chasing the 3-day filter, then it's higher...

Ideal pattern would be to use the Weekly 50% level as support and trade upwards into the 3-day filter.

My ideal pattern for higher prices this week would be to see Daily closes below the Weekly 50% level, and then a higher daily close on Tuesday, as part of a HOOK pattern.

If that happens then traders can hold into Friday.

But if Monday continues upwards, then it's an Exit around the 5-day highs.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter resistance until US trading hours....

At this stage I view GBP as range bound between the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level, but obviously that can extend on Monday.

Monday's close and Tuesday's trading will give trader's a better idea.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 14 Mar 09

No currencies fullfilled the move down into the monthly lows in March compared to the Equity markets.

This left traders swing trading intra-day patterns using some probability patterns of 3-day filters, 4 hour patterns and move from 50% levels outward & inward

There is still a larger Primary trend that needs to complete into lower lows, and that should begin from April.

AUD Monthly

The downtrends will simply be defined by the single quarter balance points in April

If Prices are below, then the view is for the continuation down.

If prices begin to consolidate above then the 2nd Quarter BP, price could be moving back towards the 3-months.

Therefore in the mean time I would continue to treat currencies with the same 5-day swing patterns over the next 2 weeks until the 2nd Quarter begins.

Euro Monthly

In the short-term Euro looks to be moving back towards the March 50% level.

But I think it will continue to have the same patterns:- 5-day highs sell price down, and each down move makes a higher low...

and each up move will follow the 5-day pattern higher into the Monthly 50% levels.

We just need to trade the same patterns using the 3-day filter and 5-day pattern.

GBP Monthly

Slowly rising upwards into the close of this month, and then the April Balance point should set up the next 2 month trend.

based on the Primary Yearly timeframe:- lower

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th March 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD trading below the 3-week highs and the monthly 50% level.

AUD pushed up into the 3-day filter and stalled.

This is viewed as resistance in Thursday & Friday.

Friday’s highs are viewed as resistance, but as pointed out yesterday, eventually they will breakout.

5-day 50% level random support on Friday




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Euro pushed down into the 5-day 50% level which aligned with the 3-day filter (red) providing a push back towards the 5-day highs.


Friday:- 3-day filter the trend guide

Above and it’s moving towards Friday’s highs and could continue higher:- higher Weekly close.

Below and it’s random length pattern towards the 5-day 50% level.




GBP Weekly 3-day pattern


Early push down on Thursday fromthe 3-day filter, and then a reversal upwards during the US timezone, with Thursday closing back above the Weekly lows…

Friday:- 3-day filter resistance & 5-day 50% level trend guide.

But because of Thursday’s Hook pattern back inside the Weekly lows, price can break the 3-day filter and move towards Friday’s highs.

I would still use the 3-day filter as resistance if there is an early push upwards on Friday and use the 5-day 50% level as an exit zone take profits.

If the pound moves down early on Friday, confirms the Weekly lows and then begins to move up towards the 3-day filter during late GMT or US trading hours, I wouldn’t short the 3-day filter.

Random support around 1.3800

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT