1st June 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

We have a MAY high breakout trying to move up into June highs,

But we also have a Friday high breakout, which we would like to see retest
before price continues higher

Any 2-day stall is part of a rotation towards Friday's 5-day high breakout.

Therefore Sunday and Monday should be part of that view until price retests
the Friday high breakout and 5-day 50% level.

But if that fails and Monday continues higher we know why it's failing, because the larger trend of a MAY high breakout is in play moving towards June highs.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on the euro and the AUD.

Support:- Sunday's 3-day filter @ 1.3989

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, 30 MAY 2009

I would have preferred text book set-ups to trade the moves upwards:- BUY MAY support, but it's not always the case.

Once the MAY high breakouts occurred last week the view was to continue with the break and move into the June highs.

Think of the MAY high breakout like a 5-day high break:- price moves from the break and hits the new 5-day high and stalls, with the potential that price can reverse down into the 5-day 50% level.

But that reversal down into the Monthly 50% level has more chance happening in July than June, simply because MAY high breakout can support price.

I expect the June high to stall price from rising much further, but a larger reversal down might take a number of weeks to play out.

For traders we simply look for and trade high probability patterns.

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Heading higher into June highs after the breakout of MAY highs.

Looking for a high probability pattern to trade longs didn't play out was hoped for when you compared the Euro and NYMEX OIL.

Those two moved down into the 5-day lows which matched the MAY high breakouts, providing the ideal set-ups.

Whereas AUD didn't.

AUD 5-day pattern

Being a higher Weekly open last week there was an expectation of a 2-day reversal pattern.

The 3-day filter provided robust set-ups to take pips out of the range, as this was part of the view.

The rest of the Week wasn't even on Friday because the lack of moving down into support earlier in the Week.

Next Week:-

Friday high breakout, expectation a push up into the highs on Monday and a move back down over 2-days to retest Friday's breakout.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Everthing about the euro last week was precise and played out withtext book patterns, even Friday's higher close

Euro 5-day pattern

Ideal resistance zones played out all Week until Thursday's 5-day lows, which matched the MAY high break.

And once again, the Red 3-day filter gave clarity of the trend and Weekly close, by simply waiting for the cross-over on Friday.

If that's one pattern you have to wait for all week to happen, then wait until the 3-day filter breaks.

Note:- I've dropped the GBP/USD from all future reports, as there are enough opportunites to trade in AUD & Euro

28th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Sideways trading pattern, with random 4 hour resistance levels around the 5-day and 3-day filters.

Ideally I would still like to see AUD come down and Test the 5-day lows before heading higher in June.

No probability pattern on Friday

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

The Euro came down into the MAY high break and Thursday's lows (5-day lows), and it should continue higher.

However, if i'm looking for a low Risk long on Friday there isn't once because of the 3-day filter.

My low risk longs always have to be trading above and then retesting the level with a 4 hour low, which means a 4 hour UP move and then next 4 hour comes down and verifies support.

Yellow filter and 5-day 50% level is the short-term trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday reversal down, but as pointed out in Yesterday's report, it wasn't a high probability pattern on the 3rd day.

Thursday:- Trading below the 5-day 50% level, and there can be a push down into support around the Weekly 50% levels and Thursday's lows.

If it hits Thursday's lows I would look for rotation up on Friday.

5-day 50% level & 3-day filter random resistance

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Pushing down into Support around the Weekly 50% levels.

If Thursday moves up early then I would look for the same 4 hour resistance patterns around Yellow resistance.

Don't short trade above the 5-day 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

no probability pattern at this stage.

Below the 5-day 50% level would attract some sellers down into 1.5777

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation of a 2-day stall/reversal down into Weekly 50% level support didn’t play out precisely.

But along the way the 3-day filters provided some resistance and profits in the short-term.

After the 2-day reversal there is a bias to continue higher due to the MAY high breakout.

Wednesday is hard to be trading longs around this level.

3-day filter resistance, which might provide 4 hour resistance into the 5-day 50% level.

But shorting now becomes higher risk on the 3rd day

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

The same 2-day stall pattern on the Euro, and now the bias is to going higher.

The 3-day filter can resist price once again, but limit trading any shorts on the 3rd day above the 3-day filter.

Note:- I won’t trade longs above the 3-day filter.

I would prefer to see the EURO continue up but come back down and retest the 3-day filter the next day before trading longs using the 3-day filter as support on Thursday.

Otherwise I would prefer to trade longs around the Weekly 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same applies on the GBP

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage, my view is a 2-day stall/reversal pattern before prices continue higher, based on the MAY high breakout.

3-day filter trend guide.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on Euro.

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation on GBP

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

most currencies against the USD have broken their MAY highs, with the expectation price is pushing up towards the June highs.

We also have higher Weekly opens, which often can pullback 2-days before the trend continues higher. This is also valid when prices rise into Friday's highs and stall.

When that happens there is a greater probability of a pullback into support (2-day), and then we look for 3rd day pattern long trades.

3-day filter trend guide & trade on the side of the Yellow

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Read AUD report and apply

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies to GBP.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, GBP 23 MAY 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

MAY high breakout and trading above the Yearly 50% level.

With the breakout of the MAY highs, then there is an expectation price will continue higher towards the JUNE highs, which will be determined at the end of next week's close (Monthly close)

Any short-term reversal patterns and the Weekly 50% levels should be used as support for a continuation higher.

Euro Monthly & Weekly

Euro hitting the Yearly 50% level, with the breakout of MAY highs.

Exact same expectation as the AUD...

Euro 5-day pattern

We can see the 3-day filter since Tuesday supporting the market with 4 hour low support.

Tuesday and Wednesday were high probability patterns, because of the view that price was rising towards higher timeframe levels:- Weekly and MAY highs.

Thursday was less so, because of price trading around those resistance levels, but nevertheless, it should have stopped traders trading 'shorts'.

And the same applied with Friday, because of the MAY high breakout.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Same breakout of MAY highs, and heading towards the Yearly 50% levels.

And same expectation as other currencies of heading higher into JUNE highs.

Daily Reports out on Monday

22nd MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern…

AUD continues higher as is consolidates above the MAY highs, which is also above the Yearly 50% level.

At this stage the bias is to continue higher, but I’ll get a better idea once this Friday closes.

Friday:- there is a higher daily open and also trading around the 3-day filter.

This is often used as a ‘shorting’ level, but on Friday that might not occur.

At best a 4-hour reversal pattern:- random length…

However I’ll also know that Friday can close higher based on the breakout of MAY highs.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro continues with a higher Weekly close, as it head back towards the Yearly 50% level @ 1.4094

Breakout of the MAY highs.

The previous 2 days provided robust long set-ups to trade upwards, enough to make decent returns because they are probability patterns:- 3-day filter Support and higher Daily closes.

We have seen this countless of times.

We have also seen countless of times, monthly highs resist price, but if price isn’t below the 3-day filter and there is a 5-day breakout from Wednesday, then more often than not price will continue with the breakout and head towards the next 5-day highs.

I can’t blame the model or the market if I'm shorting the MAY highs if lesser timeframes and filters have broken out the previous day.

What about Tuesday and Wednesday buying the 3-day filter?

How much money did we have the potential to make then?

Answer:- a lot if you let the trade run into the 5-day highs.

Friday:- Higher Daily open and 3-day filter

Yes the Euro can reverse down for a 4 hour period

It could even reverse all the way back into the 5-day 50% level.

But there is also a larger Trend in play that is trying to head towards the Yearly 50% level.
So it might not and we have a higher Friday close

Therefore Trade accordingly and use tight money management.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

No probability pattern on Thursday....

Trade the levels


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Finally the Euro completes the MAY highs.

Compared to last week, this week has been much easier using limit enteries on the euro this week.

Along with using the 3-day filter to trade the market upwards.

Thursday:- Trading around the MAY highs I would think price would reverse down or at least move into a 2-day stalling pattern.

Even though it's around MAY high resistance, it is helped by yesterday's break of the 3-day cycle, which should in theory consolidate for the next two days.

The next ideal pattern on the Euro won't be until the end of Friday and where it closes.

Trade on the side of 1.3786 (MAY highs).

There is nothing to stop the Euro moving into a higher friday close, but at this stage I wouldn't be trading longs around these highs without a pullback

Note:- No GBP Reports until the end of this week

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continues up into the Weekly highs, and there wasn’t any 4-hour selling around the 3-day filter on Tuesday

There is a breakout of Tuesday’s highs, so naturally I would look for a continuation higher….

But a higher Daily open around the Weekly highs @ 77.57 can also reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level.

The 5-day 50% level is a random support zone ,which could support price for a 4 hour period, but it wouldn’t surprise me to actually see the AUD have a down day that takes it all the way back toward .7559.

Simply trade on the side of .7757



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Swing trade up from a lower Weekly open has continued higher on Tuesday stalling @ 1.3665.

With price already around 1.3665, and a higher Daily open, it’s hard to be trading longs.

At this stage my view is a rotation back down into the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level:- random 4 hour support

A bearish pattern from a higher daily open can break the 3-day filter, and move down into the Weekly 50% level, because of the test of the 3-day high and rejection pattern down into a lower Weekly close....

or price can bounce off the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter and have a higher close, breaking 1.3665 and heading into a higher Wednesday close as it heads towards the Weekly & MAY highs



GBP Monthly and Weekly

I have no patterns to trade GBP on Wednesday...

At this stage it looks like heading straight Yearly balance point around 1.6431

• All Daily forex reports are written been 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lower Weekly open and Monday's UP move much higher than expected, as was the case with most markets.

Monday didn’t move down far enough to provide swing trades into higher Daily close (5-day lows or Weekly 50% levels)

Tuesday:- no probability patterns.

There is a breakout of the 5-day high, and as this stage price looks to be rising up into the Weekly highs and Tuesday’s highs.

I’m still bearish on the AUD around these levels, and the 3-day filter could provide some 4 hour resistance, but I’m not sure how much down side there will be after that.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Swing trade up from a lower Weekly open and could continue higher today towards 1.3665.

The price action on the Euro has stalled around last week’s 5-day breakout, which could result in a higher Daily open and sell down…

But that’s going to be defined by the 3-day filter @ 1.3545.

Simply trade on the Side of the filter.



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern…

I certainly wasn’t expecting GBP to move as high as it did based on a number of patterns last week, and the MAY highs:- resistance.

I shorted the 3-day filter level during the Asian timezone for a 41 point range partial exit, but the follow through down didn't occur

No probability pattern on Tuesday

18th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly

Most currencies have sold off on lower opens this week towards the Weekly 50% levels.

I needed these to open near open around the 5-day 50% levels on Sinday to short-trade down.

5-day 50% level and 3-day filter :- resistance.

Euro Weekly

Monday lows and Weekly 50% level could provide 4 hour swing patterns for screen traders back into the 5-day 50% levels

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter.

GBP Weekly

As per Weekly report:- Sell the 5-day 50% level on today's open.

Sadly it didn't open high enough.

In conclusion:- the view is for currencies to continue down, but based on this week's lower Weekly open and monday's 5-day lows there could be swings back into the 5-day 50% level.

More so if prices align with the Weekly 50% levels.

11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Forex AUD, EUR, GBP 16 MAY 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly
AUD reversing down from the MAY highs and the Yearly 50% level, with the expectation that over the rest of this Quarter price is heading down towards the monthly balance point @ .7170.

Next Week is a lower Weekly open and the Weekly 50% level should be used as a trend guide @ 7384.

We can see that the most robust short patterns all started from higher Daily opens, on both Wednesday and Friday…..



AUD 3-day pattern

And as pointed out in last Week’s Report:- we should

that's simply going to be found out next week:- higher Weekly open
and using the 3-day filter as part of a 'short' and hold pattern.

And both those patterns aligned with key levels in the market(3-day filters), along with a higher Weekly open and reversing down from the Highs.




Euro Monthly and Weekly

I really wanted the Euro to move down from the MAY highs.

At this stage I don’t have a long term view on the Euro other than looking for maybe 1 or 2 probability patterns during the week if your not a screen trader and trading smaller intra-day moves.

At this stage price is range bound between the Weekly 50% levels and the MAY highs.



5-day pattern

When you compare the AUD and the Euro, the AUD probability patterns were much easier to trade using limit entries, as everything aligned

When it came to the Euro to maximize the trading set-ups, you really had to be a screen trader to verify the patterns.

Friday:- 5-day breakout of the lows, so we should be short trading the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter down towards the Weekly 50% level.



GBP Monthly and Weekly.

Small Weekly range around the highs with the pound not following the same ‘sell’ patterns.

Because it’s a tight Weekly range around the MAY highs, I would treat the 5-day 50% level next week as a ‘sell’ and hold Weekly timeframe.

If the GBP can sell down from the 5-day 50% level on Monday and break the 5-day lows (first target Weekly 50% level @ 1.4975)…

There could be a larger Weekly timeframe move down over the next 5-days.

Basically the 5-day lows need to break.

15th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Thursday into the 5-day lows and reversal back into the 5-day 50% level

As pointed out yesterday:- higher Thursday close and expectation that a higher Friday open should sell down into the Weekly 50% level.

If that’s the case I wouldn’t expect the AUD to remain above the 3-day filter for too long.

Limit shorting above the Yellow Filter




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

What to make of the Euro?

Yesterday rose up from the 5-day 50% level and into a higher close.

Today’s it’s about trading on the side of the 3-day filter and the 5-day 50% level.

Below and it’s down into the 5-day lows, which could hold or break.

Above the 3-day filter and it’s fulfilling it’s MAY highs.

I don’t favour either direction, but slightly leaning to shorting the euro using 4 hour patterns.



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern…

Same same, trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Higher daily open and 3-day filter sell off breaking the 5-day 50% level.

Expectation price is heading down into the Weekly 50% level @ 7448, and the move to continue down towards 7170 in MAY.

Thursday:- 5-day 50% level resistance and down into Thursday’s lows, which goes close to matching the Weekly 50% level.

Thursday’s lows could support AUD and have a higher Daily close, but under the 5-day 50% level.

If that happens then We should look to short trade again a higher daily open on Friday.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

I really wanted the Euro to complete those monthly and Weekly highs on Wednesday, instead the euro has followed the same patterns as most global markets and reverses down.

Price isn’t trading below the 5-day 50% level, but there is an expectation that the Euro is heading back into the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3389.

But there is no probability pattern set-up to trade the euro on Thursday.



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Reversal down and break of the 5-day 50% level…

Expectation that Thursday’s 5-day 50% level should push GBP down towards the Weekly 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD back into 7670 and I expected more selling on Tuesday, instead price is trading around resistance once again.

Wednesday is a higher Daily open, which might help the AUD move down, but unless its trading below the 5-day 50% level (3-day filter resistance @ 7692)

AUD can move higher.

At this stage I’m trading view the view AUD is reverting back into the Weekly 50% level.

High Risk longs above the 3-day filter

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Yesterday I was looking for selling pressure using the Yellow filter, but now Euro is following its monthly pattern in the MAY highs @ 1.3789.

Wednesday is about trading on the side of the 3-day filter (red) until it gets to those highs.

Once around the MAY highs, then Wednesday needs to be defined by the 3-day filter

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

5-day 50% level support on Tuesday but resistance within the 5-day pattern failed and price has continued towards the Weekly highs

Weekly and 5-day highs on Wednesday resistance:

5-day 50% level trend guide

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT