1st August 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly highs

2Xmonthly wave pattern into August highs will play out over the next 2 weeks.

Those highs will be resistance for a rotation back down into support.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Same pattern with the move into August highs....

USD dollar index

I don't have enough data to analyse the dollar index within the Yearly timeframes.

But at this stage price is moving down into double montlhy low patterns.

Around August lows in this Index will match those August highs in other currenices which should begin to swing in the opposite directions.

Short-term swing patterns will be based on the Weekly lows, and at ths stage I'm not sure if the first August lows will be the swing pattern, or much lower around 75.99.

That lower level will be based on the following Weekly range in 2 weeks.

31st July 2009 AUD, EUR & USD Index

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation AUD would move into the 5-day 50% level but then push back down failed.

AUD's Trend is to continue UP towards August highs, but at this stage i'm not sure if AUD will remain range bound within this Weekly range and then continue higher next week towards the 'new' weekly highs next week and August highs.

Friday's trend is simply the 5-day 50% level... higher push up into the 5-day highs...

or a rotating Weekly timeframe with a higher Daily open pushing back down.

No probability on direction trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern



Euro played out the pattern of a 5-day breakout, remaining below the 5-day break.



We can see price is now trading below the Weekly 50% level and below the 5-day break, with the expectation that Friday's higher open should sell down into the Weekly lows and August 50% level.



However, we can also see that the Euro is currently supported around the monthly balance point.



In that case Friday could see a trading back towards next week's highs if the Euro is trading above the Weekly 50% level.



There is an each way bet on the Euro for Friday and I don't favour either way, but there is a possibility that price could move down.


USD Index

The US dollar Index has risen up from monthly lows but has hit the Weekly 50% level.

The direction this takes will depend on the direction the AUD and Euro takes, but in the opposite direction.

Weekly 50% level can send prices down once again into lower lows in August, which matches higher highs in August in the other two.

However, there is a 5-day breakout in the US dollar index, which often closes higher.

Therefore Friday is an each way bet.

30th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD moving back down into the August BP and Weekly 50% levels.

Thursday's 5-day 50% level resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I was expecting the 5-day 50% level to push the euro down into Wednesday's lows, but I wasn't expecting the break of the 5-day lows.

Price was trading above the Weekly 50% level, therefore my view was for Euro to remain above support (Wednesday's lows)

There is now an expectation for price to continue down into the Weekly lows:- higher Weekly open and lower Weekly close.

Weekly lows match the August balance point

The best trade is going to be hopefully below Thursday 50% level and the Weekly 50% level, with the expectation that price will continue down into a lower low on Friday near the Monthly 50% levels (Weekly lows)

Normally I would focus on another 2 day down move from a 5-day 50% level towards the Weekly lows @ 1.3878

So stops need to be above the Weekly 50% level.

If the Euro hits 1.3878 before the set-up plays out, then we need to wait and look for the next set-up from next week.

• All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is an expectation the AUD is heading higher towards the August highs...

However, based on the 'fake' break of Tuesday's 5-day highs, there is a potential move back down towards the Monthly BP for August (Weekly 50% level)

Any weakness would need to see a 4 hour close below the 5-day 50% level and/or a R41 spiral top rejection pattern.

3-day filter trend guide.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Early rise during the Asian timezone, but a reversal back down during the US timezone.

At this stage it's hard to see more weakness in the Euro on Wednesday, as it is already trading near higher timeframe levels:- Weekly 50%.

However, the 5-day pattern and 50% level should be used as a short-term resistance zone:- 41 pips.

Random support Wednesday's 5-day lows.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

28th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a bias to continue upwards towards Julys highs, but there isn't a probability pattern to trade Tuesday.

If trading AUD, I would look for 4 hour and 41 pip patterns.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Bias to continue upwards...

As long as the euro remains above the 3-day filters @ 1.4233

27th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD opening up in the middle of the 5-day range and can go either way.

Either follow the trend up towards the July/August highs...

Or move down into the Weekly 50% level.

no probability pattern on Monday.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, Euro is starting to consolidate above the Yearly 50% level, therefore there is a bias to continue upwards.

Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level, as the Euro could still move down into Weekly 50% level support.

no probability on direction on Monday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25 July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD monthly and Weekly

AUD heading towards August highs...

Next Week:- trading range Weekly 50% level support & Weekly highs random resistance.




Euro Monthly and Weekly

Last week was the first week that the euro had consoldated above the Yearly 50% level, and will probably continue to follow the Weekly highs next week towards August highs.

Weekly 50% level support

24th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is no view on Friday, as price will either try and close Friday on its highs or near its lows.

A lower Weekly close will line up with a lower Weekly open and Support next week, with an Expectation price will rise up towards 83+

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Exact same view on the euro...

Either price will close higher or pull back towards the 5-day lows and next week's support.

Because price is already below the 5-day 50% level (11am), the bias is to move down.

Above the red filter and Euro is closing higher.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23rd July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD stalled around the Weekly highs...

At this stage Thursday is simply about whether AUD will continue higher this week, or begin to pullback towards Next Week's 50% level (5-day lows)

We saw the 5-day 50% level support price, and if AUD is going to go higher then it will find support above the 3-day filter and continue towards Thursday's high.

A reversal pattern this week, should in theory begin from the 3-day filter and sell down....

No probability on direction, trade on the side of the 3-day filter

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Early consolidation around the levels on Wednesday moving in 41 pip waves, and then popping upwards, but failing to close above the Weekly highs.

Based on the 5-day pattern and the filters, I don't have a probability pattern at this stage for an ideal entry on Thursday.

Based on the Weekly pattern, I would think that price has failed to break the Weekly highs and is trying to move back down into the Monthly BP levels, or next Weeks Weekly 50% level:- Support

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on Tuesday's failure to close above the Weekly highs (5-day breakout), I would look for a 11am close below the Weekly highs and use this level as resistance.

This is based on a higher Daily close and 'sell' resistance.

It is not a forgone conclusion AUD or Euro will move back towards the Weekly 50% level because there is a larger Trend that is pushing prices higher, as per Monthly trend

Wednesday is a simple case of trading or not trading on the correct side of those Weekly highs.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

At this stage, if there is a 11am close below the Weekly highs then the bias is to move down.

The Yellow filter shoud be used as a trend guide.

At this stage there isn't any set-up to trade any 'longs' around these highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Last week's bounce off the July 50% levels @ 7726 and the Friday close above the Quarterly 50% @ 7996 should continue to Drive the AUD up towards 83.80 +


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There was a 4 hour close above the Yellow filter @ 80.60 on Monday pushing the AUD higher.

I wasn't expecting a 5-day high breakout on Monday, but with this pattern price should continue towards Tuesday's highs @ 82.10.

Day traders would need to trade on the side of the Brown filter if expecting higher prices.

Once around Tuesday's highs is random resistance:- 41 pips with a max move down towards the 5-day 50% level @ 80.90

Note: limit any longs below the brown filter @ 81.40 after 11am

Limit any short trading above 82. 10, as there is a larger trend pushing the AUD upwards.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter using 4 hour patterns.

Above and it's pushing up towards Tuesday's highs.

Below and the expectation is a rotation back down into the red 3-day filter...

and ideally back towards the Weekly 50% level by Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Early rise on Sunday and moving into Monday's range at 11am

There is a larger Trend push coming from the monthly 50% level that should push AUD higher, but I would also like to see AUD move back down into the Weekly 50% level to verify this week's UP move.

3-day filter is the trend guide, but I don't have a probability on whether price will continue up on Monday or reverse back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Sunday's trading will close above the Monthly BP @ 8038, and last week has already closed above the Quarterly BP.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day red filter trend guide, however no probability pattern on whether it becomes support or resistance, as I would like to see price move back towards the Weekly 50% level

4 hour 'tops' in both currencies around their 3-day filters.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly


There is an expectation of higher prices in the AUD towards July’s highs and probably continue higher into August.

Price is trading above the Yearly 50% level, and has tested the July 50% level and bounced…

Next week’s 50% level is the trend guide for higher moves.

If for some reason Monday pushes downward and closes below the Weekly 50% level, then we need to wait for Daily ‘HOOK’ patterns to trade longs once again.

Hook pattern is a higher Daily close above the Weekly 50% level after a ‘fake’ break closing above the 5-day 50% level at the same time.

That down move can happen because price is below the Monthly BP and not above.



Euro Monthly and Weekly


Euro continues to consolidate around the Yearly 50% level and not going anywhere.

There hasn’t been an ideal set-up to trade the euro, other than being a screen trader and reacting to the levels in the 5-day patterns and taking quick profits.

At this stage, any continuation upwards needs to be confirmed with price retesting the Weekly 50% level.

Any breaks downward early next week, and the view is to push down into the July 50% levels.

At this stage I would continue to trade the Euro based on short-term moves and taking quick profits within the 5-day pattern.

If and when the Euro hits the July 50% level, then clearer patterns should begin to develop.

17th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

No probability pattern on Friday.

I want to see where Friday closes and use next week's 50% level as the trend guide.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trading between levels, and if the euro is going to continue higher without retesting the July 50% levels, then next week's 50% level is the trend guide.

no probability on direction on Friday...

Use the levels in the 5-day pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD has rallied over 3 days back towards the monthly BP and stalled.

Normally 3 UP days in a row and the expectation of a 4th UP day in a row drops considerably unless price retests the 5-day 50% level...

Or in this case the Weekly 50% level.

But with a breakout of Wednesday's 5-day highs, Price can still continue higher on Thursday.

Trade on the side of the brown



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I haven't had a view or ideal patterns on the euro because it failed to move down into the July 50% levels.

The 5-day pattern has been all over the place because price was choppy around the higher timeframe 50% levels.

I don't have a view on the Euro on Thursday...

Trade on the side of the Yellow...

either it continues up into Thursday's high.

Or drops back down into the 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level once again.

No probability pattern

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Rising up from July's 50% level, and a breakout of the 5-day highs on Tuesday should continue higher towards the monthly BP @ .8038

Support 7900-15

Wednesday's high randon resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro remains choppy and I would still like to see price come down and test the July 50% levels before any continuation upwards.

I'm not sure that down move will happen on Wednesday, but anything is possible if price is below the 5-day 50% level.

no probability pattern on Wednesday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD range bound on Tuesday....

Not probability patterns.

If day trading, I would use the levels and simply try and take between 30-40 pips

Random support the 5-day 50% level

Random resistance the 3-day filter Yellow

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro still hasn't tested the July 50% level, and at this stage there isn't a probability pattern on Tuesday.

There's a lot of resistance around these upper levels, as pointed out in the Weekly report.

euro just looks choppy.

Better trades on Wednesday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

13th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the July 50% level support, and if price is trading above the Yellow filter on Monday, expectation of a swing back towards the 5-day 50% level


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, my expectation was that the Weekly 50% level would push the Euro back down into July's 50% level early this week.

Instead the early price action is rising up from the 5-day 50% level i Sunday's trading.

Monday's 50% level is the trend guide, and if above 1.3957 the Euro is moving towards the 3-day filter (Red)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th July 2009 AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Next week will be about whether AUD moves down towards .7400 or July's 50% level pushes price back into the Weekly 50% level:- resistance.



AUD 5-day pattern

There were a number of patterns last week to trade using the levels in the market without relying on the larger timeframe levels.

As always l use the 3-day filter to trade down moves in the 5-day patterns, but occasionally they will fail.

The most robust trends always occur around the higher timeframe levels:- Weekly and monthly.

If you and I are trading the 5-day levels and filters, but price isn't near any higher timeframe level, price can often be choppy during a certain timezone and then the trend continues on in another timezone

It's imperative that some form of partial exit strategy is used regardless of the resistance and support levels used in the 5-day pattern

That is why I always focus on a partial exit strategy of around 41 pips if a more robust set-up isn't aligned

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Euro trading sideways:- Yearly 50% level resistance

I would think price will come down next week into the July 50% levels, using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide ;- resistance.

Euro 5-day pattern

When trading the 5-day patterns and 3-day filter, we always begin by focusing on the larger trends and then look for patterns that align with those larger trends.

If the market is going down, then some UP days we be missed as part of the morning analysis, but an adaptive trader can still trade against the overall view of the market by using 4 hour closes and or R41 spiral points to verify the change of trend.

As an Intra-day trader I want to focus on key levels because of their reliability and statistical expectancy, but it doesn't mean they won't fail.

If price is moving down from a 4 hour high and resistance, which could be a 5-day level or 3-day filter, then it's going to be more robust than price already trading around a 4 hour low or an R41 spiral low

Therefore if trading down from resistance and timeframe levels and filters then run stops accordingly

If price is rising up from a 4 hour low or even an R41 low, but below key levels then tighten your stops.

I always know my best trades always have a number of alignments during the day or week, but sometimes those alignments don't always occur during our own timezone, and some of the patterns and daily movement can be missed.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

July 50% level support and price has moved back into the 5-day 50% level and stalled....

If AUD is going to go down, then the 3-day filter on Friday will push price down and below the brown filter and continue down towards Friday lows....

Otherwise, above Friday's 3-day filter and AUD is swinging back into next Week's 50% level

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I wasn't expecting the Euro to continue higher on Thursday, as I was expecting price to follow the move down into July's 50% level.

However once price closed above the Yellow filter on a 4 hour close, the downside move was open to risk.

At this stage, whilst above Friday's Yellow filter price can push up towards Friday's highs.

Trade on the side of the filter, or limit any short trading on Friday above that level.

Below Yellow and price stalling once again around the monthly BP and Weekly 50% level, I would look for a pullback on Friday towards the 3-day filter (red) @ 1.3936

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

9th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD completes the move into July's 50% level finding precise support.

We have seen precise support on the S&P, NYMEX, and the SPI on July's 50% level, only to see all those markets break lower the very next day or the day after.

Therefore there isn't anything to suggest that the AUD will find support and move upwards.

Based on Wednesday's 5-day breakout, I would expect a push down.

Based on July's 50% level support and Wednesday's 5-day breakout, I would also expect price to move back upwards and retest the breakout before price continues lower.

In conclusion:- 5-day 50% level resistance.

Random support brown filter @ 7730....

Along with the potential to break July's 50% level....

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same expectation that Price will continue down into July's 50% level.

Same expectation on any downside will be based on using the 3-day filters to trade the downside, as was the case on Yesterday.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As pointed out yesterday, there was an expectation of early selling pressure around the 3-day filter (minimum 41 points), but then I expected a short-term 'spike' upwards.

This played out, hitting the monthly BP and sending currencies down.

Expectation that AUD is heading down into the July 50% level.

Unless the AUD is trading around the 3-day filter on Wednesday, it's hard to get back into the trend.

Wednesday's 5-day lows:- random support

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same pattern and same expectation of heading down into July's 50% level, which matches the Weekly lows (3-week).

Trade on the side of the yellow and red filters

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

7th July 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trend is down and I would continue to look to short-trade the 3-day filter (yellow), in early trading on Tuesday:-minimum move 41 pips

However, based on this week's move, there could be a spike upwards into the Weekly 50% level, even a higher daily close.

But that UP move might not happen until later today during the US timezone.

Limit shorts above Yellow filter.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies on the Euro, as Today's up move has closed or failed to move higher that last week's 5-day low breakout (3-day cycle white). (Same in the AUD)

That can push the Euro down in early trading, but follow a higher daily close by US timezone if above the 3-day filters

Use the Yellow filter as a trend guide.

• All Daily forex reports are written before11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT