1st September 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD & Euro Weekly

Weekly 50% level and montlhy BP support with a bais to continue higher in September


AUD 5-day pattern and spiral filter

There is no probability pattern for the AUD on Tuesday and the first day of the month.

Whilst below the pink price can move down into a R85 pip low and the blue filter is the trend guide for the rest of today.

Above the pink and it's heading towards the upper channel @ 8497 and a 85 pip high.

Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

Looking at the Euro there looks to be more upside using 1.4325 as support.

This will also be above the 3-day filters and 5-day 50% level.

upside target is 1.4413 +

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD completing a 3rd Quarter move into August highs and 3-Quarter highs @ 85.38.

Next month it will be trading the 5-day patterns using the September levels.

The Trend guide and support on the AUD will be the Weekly 50% level with a bias to move upwards

AUD 5-day pattern and 85 pip spiral filter

Friday moved upwards, and Monday looks like moving in a sideways pattern of 85 pip rotation using the 5-day 50% level as support and trend guide.....

Support 83.77

EURO Monthly and Weekly

Euro range bound within the monthly range with a potential point towards the 3rd Quarter highs.

However, an ideal set-up to trade that move upwards without getting stopped out?

The ideal pattern would be simply to use the Weekly 50% level as support.

If the euro is going to move higher then it won't spend too much time below the monthly BP in September.

If that pattern occurs then the view is for a trending pattern into the 3rd quarter highs, obviously the September highs have to breakout.

Note:- Weekly timeframe won't close until the end of next week to there could be another 5-days of consolidation before a higher move occurs.




Euro 5-day pattern and spiral filter

pink filter support @ 1.4291...

note:- there could be a dip down into another spiral low @ 1.4267

Support 1.4237

Note:- there won't be any Monday Daily report.

Next Daily report will be on Tuesday

28th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Weekly

AUD and Euro Weekly

Lower Daily opens and rising up into higher Friday closes (weekly highs)

AUD and Euro 5-day pattern

I didn't have a probability pattern on Thursday because of the position of the 5-day pattern and 50% level, along with Thursday closing below the Weekly 50% level

AUD & Euro 85 pip range.

At this stage if both currencies are going to move into higher prices on Friday, then I would like to see prices move down into 85 pips lows and use the spiral lows to trade upwards.

If the AUD continues higher and forms a higher spiral point @ 8440, then it's hard to be trading longs with price already near the 5-day highs and Weekly highs.

27th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Weekly

USD Index

USD index looks to be rotating towards the September 50% level next week, and Weekly 50% level support.

I would favour a rotating down to retest the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Lower Daily open around Weekly 50% level support, but without a probability pattern in the 5-day pattern.

If the US index is rising then the AUD could remain choppy on Thursday.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

No probability pattern on Thursday.

Trend guide is the 3-day filter

either a lower Daily open rises up from the Weekly 50% level, but needs to be trading above the 3-day filter.

Or price continues down into the monthly BP, as part of the USD index rising upwards.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

26th August 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

Currencies are going to follow the fortunes of the S&P this week during the US timezone.

If the S&P continues down from the Yearly 50% level this will put pressure on the AUD and Euro.

If trading any longs until the end of this month, then I would focus on ‘short’ term support levels and 4 hour patterns of 41-85 pips, because there could be a bias to move lower......




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

3-day filter random resistance for a move towards the Weekly 50% level.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly support on Tuesday but the reversal pattern followed the S&P top and reversal.

5-day 50% level trend guide either way.

I would limit any longs below the Weekly 50% level on Wednesday and below the 5-day 50% level



Euro 5-day pattern and Spiral filter (Primary Range)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25th August 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD weekly and 5-day

5-day 50% level 4 hour support:-

Unless the Weekly 50% level is reached:-

Note:- .8300 is the trend guide (support) on Tuesday if the AUD is going to continue higher this week.

Euro Weekly 5-day pattern

Weekly 50% level support (5-day 50% level) 1.4260

Any continuation higher this week will need to see price bounce off the Weekly 50% level and trading above the Yellow 3-day filter (4 hour close above) for a move towards the Weekly highs over the next 2 days.

• All Daily forex reports are written befre 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th August 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a bias to continue higher towards August highs, but at this stage I'm not sure the AUD will move higher than Monday's 5-day highs during the Asian and GMT tradign hours.

Weekly 50% level support


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Same applies on the Euro:- once the R85 range completes it can continue to move upwards another 85 points...

or because it's a spiral high @ 1.4368 and trading near the 3-day filter ranges, price can continue down into the 50% levels.

Weekly 50% level support.

Trend guide 1.4368-71

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Weekly

USD Index

Heading down into the lows and could make a double low pattern in September....

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Weekly 50% level (support and Trend guide...

and up Target August highs

Euro Monthly and Weekly...

Same pattern as other :- Target and August highs.

Note:- currencies closely follow the same patterns as US index markets like the S&P 500.

If the S&P hits 1038 and the Yearly 50% level and reverses down, then there is a potential that currencies follow the same pattern.

21st August 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Monthly and Weekly

With the USD index heading down currencies should continue upwards, and in the case of the AUD towards August highs.

However, the USD Index continued down without retesting the 5-day 50% level or Weekly 50% level, so there could still be a higher daily move towards that level on Friday, which could see the AUD and other currencies have a lower Friday close.



AUD 5-day pattern and Primary spiral range @ 85 pips

If the AUD is going to move down, then it will match the 5-day high which matches the spiral filter top at the same level @ .8357.

If the AUD is going to move up and breakout, then it will be trading above that level and could travel as far as Thursday's 5-day high (another R85)

Euro Monthly and Weekly

No retest of the Weekly 50% level, for an ideal continuation upwards.

Same view on the euro as the AUD...

Euro 5-day pattern and R85 spiral filter


It's simply a matter of trading on the right side of the 3-day filter which matches the spiral top.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

USD Index and 5-day pattern


August 50% level resistance and Weekly 50% level break. Expectation now is that the USD indexes will continue down whilst currencies will move upwards.

However on Thursday, I would expect price to retest the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level before heading lower on Friday.

That retest could be a test and reject pattern today and continuation down into a lower Daily close...

or it could be a higher daily close and then price moves down the next day.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Because of this price action and the price action in the AUD the bias is to move higher...

but it needs to be trading above the 3-day filter.

If the USD index is moving back into the 5-day 50% level then there can still be early 'selling pressure on the AUD:- R41 pips or 4 hour resistance.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro bias is to continue higher, but the ideal pattern would be Thursday to retest the Weekly 50% level @ 1.4182 before heading higher.

Note:- Support and trend guide is the red 3-day filter.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

19th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

USD Index and 5-day pattern

Lower Daily close and the 5-day 50% level.

It's simple a matter on which direction the USD index takes...

Lower daily open from the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level and continues higher...

or August 50% level sends the USD back down into the lows.




AUD and 5-day pattern

And whatever happens will have a bearing on the AUD and Euro...

At this stage price looks like rising, but won't be confirmed until GMT trading because the USD index won't begin until mid-night time.

Therefore until then the 5-day 50% level is random resistance.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Exact same pattern :- 3-day red fitler is the trend guide.

Each way probability but it should continue either way to the 5-day range highs or lows.

Higher Daily open under the Weekly 50% level will move opposite to the USD index

18th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

USD Futures and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report there was a potential UP move early this week, and this UP move could continue higher into Friday.

However, Monday's UP move has once again stalled at the August 50% level and the 5-day highs.

Therefore it's too early to tell whether the Index will continue higher, and based on Monday's price action I have to view Tuesday as a 'stalling' day between both the monhtly and Weekly 50% levels, until one of them breaks.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Because of the USD index and price action in the AUD, Tuesday has a bias to move UP and back into the 3-day filter.

3-day filter is the trend guide:- no probability pattern on whether it resists price or breaks

Euro and 5-day pattern

Euro is much more bearish because of price trading below the Weekly 50% level

Tuesday:- no probability pattern.

3-day filter trend guide range resistance

I can only get bullish on the euro if there is a Daily HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level and 5-day 50% level on Tuesday, and the USD Index closes back under the Weekly 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th August 2009 AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, the price action in the USD index indicatored a possible UP move which would put pressure on the currencies.

AUD looks to be heading down into the lower Weekly support levels and 5-day lows on Monday:- random support.


Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Opening below the weekly 50% level and being pushed down from the 3-day filter.

3-day filter trend guide.

Sunday-Monday' s lows target.

15th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Weekly

USD Index

August 50% resistance and USD index aligning with the Weekly 50% level.

Just by looking at this price action I would think the Dollar will be under pressure and other currences will rise, as price moves back down into the lows.



5-day pattern

However, The Index has come down and retested the 5-day breakout from last week and has closed back above the 5-day 50% level.

This is normally a 'bullish setup', as it's verified the breakout but now closed above the 5-day 50% level, but it needs to be verified with price above the Weekly 50% level.

either price continues down next week, but ends the break the 5-day lows again...

Or if price is rising upwards from the Weekly 50% level, this could lead to more upside and a higher Weekly open.

This will put pressure on other currencies.


Aussie Dollar

Major support around the Weekly lows and the Weekly 50% level & Quarterly 50% level @ 81.40.

Bearish pattern is a 5-day low break below those levels, which is part of the USD index moving upwards.

If that's the case then there is an expectation that price is moving towards a Friday close away from the Weekly open, but at this stage we don't know whether price will break lower, as the price action favours an UP move.

The EURO looks like it will rise upwards from the Weekly 50% level and continue upwards....

Unless price opens below the Weekly 50% level next week then the Euro could be under Weekly 'selling pressure' towards the Quarterly BP @ 1.3734

14th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday's view was based on currencies rising because of the August 50% level resistance in the Dollar Index.

However I did expect more strength in the AUD and not remain in the 5-day range.

There is a two pattern play......

Friday continues higher, but unless you're already long there isn't an ideal set-up to get back into longs.

Either price comes down into the 5-day 50% level and find support.

Note:- Friday's highs are a random resistance level.

I would not surprise me either to see the AUD close in the middle of the Weekly range on Friday because of Thursday's faillure to breakout

EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

I expected more upside on the euro on Thursday and to be trading around the 5-day highs...

Friday is simply going to be either a continuation of the trend upwards towards the Weekly highs

or a friday 'stall' pattern, and then next week's 50% level becomes support....

The RED filter is your trend guide on Friday.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

US Dollar index

August 50% level resistance and if price continues down then other currencies will rise


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD moved into the Weekly 50% level and has closed around the 5-day 50% level.

Normally I would look at this pattern and say....

Price has retested the breakout with today's higher daily close, and because it is a higher Weekly open and a Higher Daily open below the 5-day 50% level, then the trend should continue down over the next 2 days. (lower Weekly close)

However, because of the USD index if the AUD is above the 3-day filter on Thursday then I can't discount a rally towards the August highs over the next few days

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro looks more orderly with price support above the higher timeframe 50% levels.

Currently trading below the 5-day 50% level.

If the Euro is above the Yellow filter on Thursday and above the 5-day 50% level, then a move towards the 5-day highs is a probability pattern...

And August highs by Friday.

Trade on the side of the Yellow filter

Below the Red 3-day filter on Thursday and it is more likely a lower Weekly close on Friday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

12th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD continuing down towards the Weekly 50% level and monthly BP level.

5-day breakout on Tuesday should continue down into Wednesday's lows.

two pattern play could be either an early rise into the 3-day filter and sell downwards....

or Wednesday's 5-day low could play a support role and a move back towards the 5-day 50% level to retest the break late Wednesday-Thursday.

5-day 50% level either Wednesday or Thursday should continue to be part of the strategy of trading down towards the Weekly 50% level

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Yesterday I was looking for any hint of a HOOK pattern and a higher daily close, and I thought that the 4 hour close above the 3-day filter would see price swing back towards the 5-day 50% level.

It was a valid expectation because price was trading around higher timeframe support.

Instead Tuesday remained flat.

Wednesday has a random pattern, which could see lower prices into the the 5-day lows once again.

I can't see a higher move now unless price is above the 3-day Red filter (4 hour close once again)

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

11th August 2009 USD, AUD, EUR Daily

USD Index and 5-day pattern

USD Index is trading at the August 50% level along with price stalling at the 5-day highs.

Based on this pattern, I would look for a reversal back down into the 5-day 50% level.

If the US dollar is going to go lower then Tuesday needs to close below the Weekly 50% level and continue down from Wednesday.

At this stage Tuesday is an each way bet on the direction, however I do favour a down move.

This price action is important, because if that happens then it favours my view of a HOOK pattern in the Euro... (higher Friday close)



AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the Price action in the AUD, there isn't any probability on direction and it continues to look choppy.

Price will most likely continue down into Tuesday's lows (5-day lows)



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

There was an expectation that the Euro would move down on Monday because of Friday's breakout.

As per Weekly report, if the Euro is going to swing upwards this week, then Tuesday needs to have a daily close above the 5-day 50% level, and this should form a 'HOOK' bar for Wednesday to move higher.

Therefore the critical level on Tuesday is going to be the 3-day filter (yellow), and a 4 hour close above this level, which might not happen until GMT trading or USD timezone later today.

This price action will align with the USD index reversing down from the August 50% level and Tuesday closing below the Weekly 50% level

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT