1 MARCH 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, I'm not bullish on the AUD, but if it's above the March 50% level then the bias is UP...

Trend guide the 50% level @ 89.63 and the 5-day 50% level.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

I can't be bullish on the Euro based on the current price action, and also Friday's high pattern.

Based on this price action I would look at Monday and Tuesday moving down towards the 5-day lows.

Trend guide the Yellow filter on Monday

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27 FEB 2010 USD, AUD, Euro . GBP Weekly

USD Index

My opinion the USD index is going to continue higher until April and this is going to put pressure on currencies.



AUD:- Even though the AUD doesn't fall into the USD Index basket, I just can't get bullish on the AUD.

Trend guide the March 50% level


Euro

Friday's up move into resistance levels should continue down early next week into March lows.

It's the only view I have at the moment.

March lows could support price for the rest of the month, but my opinion it should continue down in April.

GBP

Bearish into March lows:- 50% levels resistance.

Max move down towards the Yellow levels by April.

26 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly 5-day pattern

Same as yesterday:- 4 hour resistance around the 5-day 50% level, unless trading above.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

4 hour resistance @ the 50% levels and yellow filter.

Keen in mind that if price is above then it's moving towards next week's 50% levels (higher daily close)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

25 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD supported on the 3-day cycle low (white) and the 3-Weekly 50% level.

At this stage I would still treat AUD as range trading within the 5-day range of 41-85 pips.

Thursday:- potential 4 hour resistance around the 5-day 50% level...

If above then price is likely to move back towards the February 50% level by Friday (5-day highs)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expectation that the Euro will continue down during this quarter, with a possible continuation down towards the next Quarterly lows in April.

5-day 50% level and 3-day filter is seen as a 4 hour resistance level:- 41 to 85 pips.

If above during Thursday then price is seen a rotating up towards the 5-day highs.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD back down into the 3-day cycle lows and Tuesday's 5-day lows....

At this stage I would treat the rest of the Week as consolidating within the 5-day range and trading below the February 50% level until March begins

Euro Weekly and 5-day 50% level

Weekly 50% level and push back down.

Euro can continue down this week towards the February lows as per Weekly report @ 1.3356

or it can remain in a sideway 5-day pattern until Marh begins and then continue lower.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

23 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day range

Even though AUD looks like it's going higher, I would have to treat Tuesday's highs as resistance.


Euro Weekly and Spiral filter

Whilst below the 50% levels in the Spiral filter the bias is to continue down, and mostly likely continue down in March.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly timeframe pushing up from the monthly 50% level.

This should continue higher, but there are a number of levels that are resistance levels (monday's highs) and (Weekly highs)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Euro is extremely bearish, but we can only judge the Euro based on the 5-day 50% level.

Random pattern whilst above this level, because of the Weekly 50% level.

20 FEB 2010 USD, AUD, Euro GBP Weekly

USD Index

After last week's 2-day reversal down breaking support and not going lower, the USD index is now consolidating above the 3-Quarter 50% level & there is a breakout of January's highs.

This leads me to think that the USD index will continue upwards for the rest of this Quarter, or at least remain above these support levels.

In the short-term until March begins it looks like price will continue to consolidate above these levels.



AUD Monthly and Weekly

AUD looks supported, but at this stage I think AUD will remain within it's 5-day range patterns until March:- Between Weekly highs and Monthly 50% levels.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

If there is a bias to continue higher in the USD Index, then there is a bias to continue down in the Euro, which is also trading below the Yearly 50% level.

At this stage I feel February will continue to swing trade within the 5-day range until March and then mostl likely push down towards the 3-Quarter lows (Yellow).

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP completes the double low pattern in February, and there is going to be a bias coming into the end of this month that it will try and rise back towards the Monthly 50% level.

That can either be the 3-month 50% level or the single month 50% level (red).

If it struggles to move higher than the red it's probably going to continue down in March.

Note:- it may remain within the 3-month channels in March, but it could also trend down in March towards the 3-Quarter lows (Yellow channels)

19 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Early support around the 50% level but a late sell-off has seen the AUD continue down towards the White channel.

This level is seen as support, but it also needs to be verified with next week's open with the AUD is going to continue higher in late February.

Euro Monthly, Weekly and Daily

Thursday's 5-day 50% level set up another push down into the Weekly lows...

As per Monthly chart, February's lows are seen robust support, but it will need to be filtered with lesser timeframes

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

A mentioned yesterday, the Trends in the USD index were dependant on how price responds after the initial 2-day reversal and break of support.

We have seen that price didn't continue down but reverse back upwards...

Because of this pattern the next 2-days until Friday don't have a probability pattern.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currently AUD is rotating back down into the 5-day 50% level....

If AUD is going to contiune higher into Friday then this pattern is based on the Weekly 50% level (brown), and the retest of the 5-day breakout on Tuesday using the 5-day 50% levels as support on Thursday

At this point I don't have a view of AUD moving back down into the 3-day cycle (white)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

After the initial 2-day reversal into the Weekly 50% level and subsquent dow move, I don't have another view on Euro until the end of the week.

No probability pattern on Thursday (use the levels in the 5-day range)

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

USD Index Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, I was bearish on the USD index, which meant I was bullish on Currencies.

The 2-day reversal has resulted in a break of support and a break of the 5-day lows.

This means that the Index can continue down all this week towards the Weekly lows, as long as it remains below the Weekly 50% level and 3-day cycle.


AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

There is a breakout of the 5-day highs on Tuesday, which should see the AUD continue to move up towards the Weekly highs.

Support 5-day 50% level.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

2-day reversal has completed, but still below the Weekly 50% level.

This could see the Euro push downwards again and remain within the 5-day range.

However, if the USD has broken support then this could see the Euro continue higher on Wednesday:- 3rd UP day.

Price needs to be trading above the 3-day cycle 'white'

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly, 5-day pattern and Spiral filter

Currently supported at the Weekly 50% level with a bias to move upwards in the first 2-days...

However, there isn't a probability pattern that's going to provide an ideal set-up.

The trend guide is the pink filter @ .8877

high risk trading longs below the Weekly 50% level.


Euro Weekly, 5-day pattern and spiral filter

I have the view that Tuesday is going higher, but it needs to be above the 5-day 50% level.

Any weakness on Tuesday and the R85 low and pink filter is the trend guide....

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

As per Weekly report, I have a view that currencies are going to rise upwards in the first 2-days, because of the Friday patterns in the USD Index and Euro lows.

5-day 50% level is the trend guide.




AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD doesn't give the same clues

Green Weekly 50% leve trend guide.

I would prefer to keep an eye on the Euro at the moment.

13 FEB 2010 USD, AUD, Euro . GBP Weekly

USD Index

USD Index is stuck between the Yearly 50% level and a breakout of the January highs and 3-Quarterly 50% level.

Normally the latter will see higher prices during this Quarter, however based on Friday's price action I'm viewing next week as a 2-day reversal in the Index.

If price breaks the Weekly 50% level the US index will begin to drift down towards the March 50% level (currently unknown)

AUD Monthly and Weekly

The trend guide on the AUD next week is going to be based on Monthly 50% level.

Normally I would view next week as a higher Weekly open and sell resistance towards the lows (3-Quarterly 50% level).

However, whilst above the Weekly 50% level the bias is to continue upwards.

Daily report out on Monday

Euro Monthly and Weekly

I still have the view that February is going down, but next week I have the view that price is starting the week with a move towards the Weekly 50% level:- 2-day ups

If it closes above the Weekly 50% level, then the bias is to continue back towards the monthly 50% levels.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Technically GBP is trading below key 50% levels with a downward bias.

If GBP is going higher whilst the USD index drops (expected 2-day reversal), then it will need to breakout of the 5-day highs on Monday.

12 FEB 2010 AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD has broken out of the highs on Thursday and closed above the Weekly 50% levels.

Based on this price action I would treat Friday as a move upwards using the Weekly 50% levels as support and a higher friday close around 89.60 and the February 50% levels.

There was no way knowing Thursday would move higher, simply because there were too many resistance levels :- 5-day highs and Weekly 50% levels.

Note:- any continuation of the trend is going to depend on Friday's highs and the February 50% levels.

Because a test and reject pattern can swing down next week and go looking for the 3-day cycle lows (2-day reversal)

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

currently supported around the 5-day lows after reversing down.

There is still a view of lower prices in February, as per Weekly report.

However, there are too many support levels to be short-trading on Friday

no probability pattern

11 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

USD Index Monthly and Weekly

This week's expectation (Weekly Report) was a 2-day reversal down with the possibility of price moving back towards the highs.

This is either going to double top on Thursday (5-day highs and matching February top) , along with the Yearly 50% level and move back down....

Note:- also the 'dropping' of the following week highs, which often favours weakness this week.

Or because of the January closing price (breakout of the January highs and trading above the 3-Quarter 50% level) (Friday close above) & then continues higher next week.

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Based on the price action in the AUD, there isn't a probability pattern for Thursday....

Support Thursday's lows.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

No probability pattern on Thursday.

5-day 50% level and Yellow filter's trend guides.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

10 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD 2nd day UP move from support levels has played out and looking to move towards the Weekly 50% levels.

However I’m not sure how much more upside because of those levels, the 5-day highs on Wednesday, and the pattern in the Weekly charts.



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

Same applies on the Euro (50% level trend guide)

9 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern.

With price trading around the February lows and a bounce off the Friday's I expected more upside on Monday.

At this stage we need to treat this week as part of the weekly report and a push lower towards the 3-quarter 50% level.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm not surprised my the price action in the Euro because i'm expecting the Euro to move down towards the Feb lows as per Weekly report.

However, I was expecting at least a 2-day rise because I was expecting a 2-day reversal pattern in the USD index based on Friday's price action.

Trend guide Yellow and current Feb lows, as shown above

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

8 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

After last week's price action and Friday's support on the 5-day lows I'm expecting currencies to move upwards and continue back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

5-day 50% level and Yellow filter trend guides

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I'm looking for the same pattern in the Euro, however the 5-day pattern is different as it's closed below the lows on Friday.

This could actaully see a push back down into Monday's lows

Yellow filter trend guide.

6 FEB 2010 USD AUD, Euro . GBP Weekly

USD Index

USD Index completes the move into the 2010 50% level.

Is this the top with matching February highs?

It is hard to say until things begin to unfold, but because Friday's highs match a number of important patterns along with the 5-day highs, I would treat next week as a 2-day reversal pattern down towards the Weekly 50% level to start with.

This could then see another push back towards the highs, as part of a double top pattern because of a number of patterns in the Euro and GBP.

AUD

Based on the price action I would have to say that AUD is heading back towards the 50% levels, but then continuing down into the Feb lows and matching 3-Quarter 50% level.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

The only conclusion I can make is that Euro has to complete the break and extend pattern into FEB's lows, which will probably be a robust support zone for the current month.

That's either going to happen early on Monday, or price is going to follow a swing into the 50% levels and then complete the move later in the week.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Same view on GBP...

Down into February lows.

either early next week or could follow the USD index and move upwards first and then continue down later