Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 31 Jan 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Currencies and Indexes are following the 2-month pattern into lower lows in February.

It began with the continuation of the down trend in January below the 50% level, and the expectation is that is will continue down into the Feb lows.

Ideally the best pattern would be for price to move back into the Monthly 50% levels and get into the trend, but that might not be the case as trend downwards in the last week of this Month can just continue lower in the following Month

AUD 3day pattern

AUD reversed down from the the Weekly 50% level, and even though the 3-day filters defined the trend down, it wasn't until price moved back below the 5-day 50% level that down move gathered pace.

This lead to the breakout of the 3-day lows on Thursday, and the continuation down into Friday.

Until February's lows are reached, the best set-ups will be shorting the 3-day filters (Yellow)

Therefore we need to wait until a higher daily close to get back into the trend if out of it.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Same expectation:- heading down into February's lows.

Once February's lows are reached, the view is that the Euro will be support and then we look for 3-day breakout patterns on the UPside for any reversals....

GBP Monthly and Weekly

The Dynamics of GBP compared to the Euro and AUD is different.

Price is already trading around January's lows, so the bias was to move higher as we expected these lows to hold.

But we also expect the GBP to still follow the same pattern down into February's lows:- 2 monht pattern.

This will complete a double bottom, and once this completes, it will probably have more chance of moving upwards, which is a random length....

Random length:- the possibility is that price begins to rotate back towards the Quarterly 50% levels.

Now price will be moving back into February's 50% level next week, so it would be ideal to begin to look for shorts, but also price could move as high as the 3-week highs @ 1.5200.

Around those 3-week highs I would certainly look for a move down into the lows again.

But nothing is a certainty where price reverses down or if it goes down, but we should continue to subscribe to shorting the 3-day filters.

Daily reports written on Monday after 11am

30th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies and Index markets are following the same patterns, January downtrend..

There has been a 1 week UP move (actually 3-days), and with the expectation that prices will go lower in February, as part of the 2-month down trend.

At this stage the Down trend is moving a couple of days early, confirmed with price reversing down from the Weekly 50% level and trading below the 5-day 50% levels.

Friday:- There is a breakout on Thursday so the expectation is to push down into Friday's lows.

Ideally I would like to see the AUD move back into the Monthly 50% levels early next week before the trends continues down but it might not happen...

Weekly report tomorrow.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same expectation in the Euro of heading lower.

Hopefully there is Friday support and a swing back into the 5-day 50% levels:-retest and then continue down

But if Friday breakouts the trend is down towards the Weekly lows.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP is slightly different, it's being supported around January's lows, and trading above the Weekly 50% levels...

A breakout above the 3-day filter could see a higher Weekly close and a swing back towards the February's 50% levels

However, selling down from the 3-day filter on a last day of the month can see price down into Friday's lows.

If Friday's lows breakout, then it's the same pattern of heading lower.

28th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies have moved upwards into the Weekly 50% levels in the first 2 days of the week, but on Wednesday have reversed back down.

This could lead to more weakness based on Thursday's trading....

Or....

If currencies can find some support around the Weekly balance points on Thursday and consolidate, then on Friday we would look for a continuation upwards into a higher Weekly close.

Thursday:- Weekly 50% level rejection and being sold down from the 3-day filter.

At this stage price could actually continue down towards Thursday's lows.

Trade the levels:- random support 5-day 50% level.

3-day filter resistance.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

As pattern as AUD:- looking to move back down into the Weekly balance point.

If Thursday follows further weakness then it's down into Thursday's lows.

3-day filter resistance

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly balance point the trend guide :- 1.4066

28th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

All Global Indexes and Currencies are following the same patterns :- 2-days rotation back towards the Weekly 50% level from lower Weekly opens.

Now this is a re-curring pattern, which often can see the next 3 days move lower, as there hasn't been any Daily HOOK patterns above these Weekly 50% levels.

But we are trading a Weekly timeframe after 3 weeks of down moves, which can see higher prices by Friday, as price swings back towards the Monthly 50% levels in February.

So which will it be...Continue higher or reverse down?

I don't know, therefore it's simply trade the levels in the 3-day pattern .

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Trade on the side of the Weekly 50% level, matched by the blue filter....

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP favours higher prices simply because of the breakout of Tuesday's highs...

But don't trade longs below the blue filter @ 1.4113

27th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies are starting the week from a lower Weekly open and are going through a 2-day rotation back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

currencies are also in the 4th Week after 3 weeks of trending down, therefore there is a possibility that they could continue higher into Friday.

At this stage I view the Weekly 50% level as resistance.

Tuesday:- no probability patterns, just trade the levels.

Bearish below the 5-day 50% level and Weekly balance point.

Monday's trading

The view of Monday was that the 3-day filter would be resistance and price would push lower.

Thsi was the case over a 4 hour period moving down over 41 pips from the spiral top.

But then we saw 7pm buying and rising upwards from the 3-day break matched with the spiral filters, and then the rest of the rotated between the levels along with the filters.

If Tuesday is going to continue higher, then the 5-day 50% level is random support

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level resistance along with the 3-day filter highs.

5-day 50% level random support.

Less so if the Euro is reversing down from the 3-day filters.

Above Tuesday's highs and it's part of the 4th Week reversal back towards February 50% levels, but I would think that price would look to 'stall' for about 2-days before heading higher Thursday-Friday.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter random resistance.

5-day 50% level random support.

Ideal pattern would be to see price come down and find support around the 5-day 50% level, which matches the 3-day break yesterday (yellow), and then continue upwards.

26th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

As per Weekly report:- Expectation for a push donwards over the next 2-days.

3-day filter resistance & Monday's low random support




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern


As per Weekly report:- Expectation for a push donwards over the next 2-days.

3-day filter resistance & Monday's low random support



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern


As per Weekly report:- Expectation for a push donwards over the next 2-days.

3-day filter resistance & Monday's low random support

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 24 Jan 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Currencies and Indexes are following the same patterns of moving lower into double Monthly low patterns towards February's lows.

Therefore we should still to try and find levels in the multi-timeframes to short-trade down, whilst any longs should be use for quick profits using intra-day spiral techniques.

Because price isn't anywhere near the higher timeframe 50% levels, traders have to use the patterns within the Weekly trend, which hopefully sets a nice trading using either the 5-day 50% levels pr the 3-day filters.

The expectation of a 2nd monthly wave pattern down is a 'text-book' pattern.


Another text book pattern is:- after 3 weeks of trending price action we would normally look for a 1 week counter-trend move (higher weekly close), before the trend continues lower in the next Month.

Therefore price might or might not reach the January lows, but I'm still expecting a push lower early next week, and then begin to see if there are any patterns later next week to give us clues of a higher Weekly close.

If that occurs then this should hopefully align with another trend down into February's lows.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Weekly balance point trend guide next week for an early push down :- random length.

But later in the Week we would begin to look for some rotation back towards the February 50% level before the Next trend continues lower in the following month.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP already trading around its January lows.

At this stage I would look for a push down into the Weekly lows, and then see if there is any 3-day filter breakout on the UPside for a move back towards the February 50% level.

Daily Report out after 11am on Monday

23rd Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD Weekly lows supporting the price, but the overall Monthly trend is down, and Thursday has moved down after testing the 5-day 50% level.

Based on this test and reject pattern which matches the breakout of the 3-day lows, I would look for a move down into Friday's lows.

3-day filter resistance

high risk short trading above resistance on Friday.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Same expectation on the euro:- move down on Friday...

However there is still a possibility that the Euro could move up towards the 3-day filter (resistance).

Simply define Friday's trading by trading on the side of the blue filter @ 1.2998

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP consolidating around the Monthly lows.

I would have expected a little more support, but if these lows are valid and price begins to move up off these lows, then it will begin with a break of the 3-day filter.

A break of the 3-day filter, and I would be looking for a move towards the breakout of this week's Weekly lows, which match up with next Week's 50% level.

Otherwise, GBP could be following a lower Friday close

22nd Jan 2AUD, EUR, USD part 2

AUD 3-day pattern 15:15

Trend moves down into pink to pink move, which matches blue filter support....

As a trader you would be buying the support matched with the filter and taking partial exits on the R41 pip high, but knowing you could hold this for the next 4 hours or pink to pink move.

Because it's not a high probability pattern within the weekly timeframe, other than intra-day rotation, it's best to focus on taking small chunks...

Because the 3-day filter is view as resistance.

If you think the Weekly lows are valid support, and the 3-day filter can breakout, then you can hold.

But it's not often that breakouts occur during the Asian timezone



Euro 3-day pattern

Earlier price push downed 41 pips and reversed upwards.

Based on the first 4 hour period you would have shorted the top 41 pip matched with the spiral filter looking for a move down into the blue filter

On this occasion you would be stopped out.

I normally run 9-11 pip stops, for a 1:3 profit return for the 41 pip completion.

Price reverses upwards, but then there is a R41 pip spiral rejection pattern.

Buy the low and partial exit on the way upwards 41 pips.

Then we can see the 3 pm buying come in matched with the spiral filter, as it heads towards the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter.

Resistance.

22nd Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly lows support...

But because of the breakout pattern on Tuesday and the swing back up on Wednesday to retest the break...

I favour a down day on Thursday :- 3-day filter resistance

AUD 3-day pattern and spiral filter

I haven't updated the spiral filters for a while, but I want to remind some traders or those who haven't seen them before how they work.

Forex is a 24 hour market that provides a number of patterns throughout the day, but it doesn't always suit the person depending on their timezone.

The reason why I use 240 minute bars is because they provide patterns that move over 4 hour periods that can result in breakouts or pften price only moves 41 pip ranges.

Using Wednesday as an example:- price rose up towards the Tuesday break in the first 4 hour period but then reversed down.

This matched a probability pattern, but was also confirmed with the spiral filter top.

The weekly supported price, but it wasn't until the spiral filter matched support that buyers came in.

The Trading trading the breakout pattern and using the retest and reject pattern would have shorted the Spiral top and taken partial exit @ 41 pips and now be holding

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly lows support, and Wednesday moved back to retest the break from Tuesday, therefore the expectation is to continue down on Thursday

Euro 3-day pattern and spiral filter

Currently the best set-up short would be to move back towards the 3-day filter.

There is a Spiral low on the open of this 4 hour period, but not near support or resistance

If the spiral low rises upwards in this 4 hour period, (41 pips) then it should hopefully stall around the brown filter matched by the 5-day 50% level and then continue down, as part of the Thursday down move.

If this 4 hour period moves down into blue support, then there wouldn't be a matching spiral filter, as it has to move 90 pips down.

Basically the trader understands where price is trying to go, but then simply waiting for the set-ups to unfold.

Trading longs around the blue filter is higher risk because of not matching spiral filters, but there still could be a rise upwards, if it's matched with an R41 low and a 4 hour low.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Looks like GBP has found support and could move back towards the 3-day filter.

Use blue filter as a support and trend guide.

3-day filter is viewed as resistance, but because price is rising up from the monthly lows, this could be less likely.

21st Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies and Indexes are following the same patterns of down into their Weekly lows and probability continue down into their Monthly lows.

AUD Weekly support, but less likely to hold other than a short-term intraday bounce.

Tuesday Breakout and the best pattern is a move back towards the 5-day 50% level which matches Tuesday breakout and then look for the next move down.

But also use the blue filter as a trend guide.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Euro Weekly support, but less likely to hold other than a short-term intraday bounce.

Tuesday Breakout and the best pattern is a move back towards the 5-day 50% level which matches Tuesday breakout and then look for the next move down.

But also use the blue filter as a trend guide.

If Weekly lows can't hold it's moving down into Wednesday's lows.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP has completed the move down into January's lows

Wednesday's lows random support

blue filter random resistance

Note: the same pattern of Tuesday breakout so there could be a move back towards the 5-day 50% level

20th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Currencies follow the Monthly Trends down and towards the Weekly lows.

Most currencies have moved down into their Tuesday's lows.

Tuesday's lows are random support, which may or may not hold, simply because price is following to Weekly trends down.

No probability pattern on Tuesday

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Monday Reversed down, but there wasn't an ideal set-up to get into the trend, because no 4-hour top matched any of the levels.

Tuesday's random support:- which could see a move back towards the 5-day 50% level.

But the trend is down and heading towards the Weekly lows.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Tuesday:- A move back into the 5-day 50% level to confirm Monday's breakout would be ideal, but it would need to find some 3pm support...

Otherwise it's breaking Tuesday's lows and the Weekly lows, as it heads down towards the January lows.

19th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly SET-up at this stage on Monday isn't playing out with the 'gap' open.

In fact all currencies have gapped upwards and have very similar patterns....

There is no probability pattern other than trading on the side of the blue 3-day filter.

Either it's going upwards to the 3-day filter higher, or back down into the 5-day 50% level.



EURO Weekly and 5-day pattern

Weekly SET-up at this stage on Monday isn't playing out with the 'gap' open.

In fact all currencies have gapped upwards and have very similar patterns....

There is no probability pattern other than trading on the side of the blue 3-day filter.

Either it's going upwards to the 3-day filter higher, or back down into the 5-day 50% level.




GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern:-

Weekly SET-up at this stage on Monday isn't playing out with the 'gap' open.

In fact all currencies have gapped upwards and have very similar patterns....

There is no probability pattern other than trading on the side of the blue 3-day filter.

Either it's going upwards to the 3-day filter higher, or back down into the 5-day 50% level.

GBP is trading above the Weekly 50% level, therefore the 5-day 50% level is a random support zone on Monday.

17th Jan 09 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Weekly

AUD Monthly and Weekly


Last Week's view was for the AUD to continue up towards the quarterly 50% level and January highs, simply because of the Friday support above the January 50% level:-

Pattern using Support:- lower Weekly open and rising upwards.


However, Monday opened lower and changed the entire Week's set-up, resulting in no Weekly set-up for the entire week.

As a trader we need to analyse the data and then make conclusion using pattern recognition techniques and probability patterns.

Next week:- This week price has closed below the Weekly lows (breakout), therefore the probability is that price will continued down into the Weekly lows, as it follows the trend down towards the Monthly lows.

As Traders we should be trading down from the Weekly balance point or Weekly 50% level and down into next Week's lows.

Of course, if it's above those levels then the probability pattern has failed and traders need to adjust using the 3-day pattern set-ups....

AUD 3-day pattern

Even though last week's trading set-up didn't go to plan, as a trader I still need to use levels in the market that will help me define trends:- support and resistance, and likely entry points.

The rest of last week was left to day-trading the levels within the 3-day pattern, along with 1 higher probability pattern shorting the 5-day 50% level confirmed with a 4 hour top on Wednesday.

But the rest of the trading days I already knew the direction I should be trading and should not be trading simply based on the 3-day closing price at midnight.

This is ideal for Asian based traders in trending markets, as it allows random length ranges over the course of the first 4 hour timeframe:- 1x 41 pip ranges or multiples x 41 ranges.

It also tells us what not to be trading if price moves in the opposite direction


For example:- Monday and Thursday down.

Even if you shorted Wednesday and were stopped out, you already had a view where the market was heading (5-day 50% level) .

A day trader can adjust to the price action unfolding and switch to trading long up into the 5-day 50% level and exit. And then re-adjust back into 'shorts'.

Wednesday was the high probability pattern for any trading week:- rotation into the 5-day 50% level and extend outwards, as the Weekly trend moves lower

Friday:- was above the blue but the 3-day filter was seen as probability resistance, but it failed.

Not every trade will be a winner, not every level will move in the direction you want it to go.

And not every trader has the luxury to pick up all the major moves in the market, simply because of the Timezone they are trading

By the Time US based traders are trading in their own timezone, then hopefully a pattern that Asian based traders didn't trade, is part of the 3-day pattern analysis, whether it's rotation or extension.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Last's Weeks view was for the Euro to continue down into the Weekly lows.

However once again the high probability set-up didn't go to plan :- early rise up into the Weekly midpoints and short-trade down.

Next Week:- trade on the side of the Weekly balance point @ 1.3254

Either price continues down into the Weekly lows, or moves upwards and back into the Weekly 50% level & January 50% level next week.

At this early stage I favour a move down.

Daily report out on Monday after 11am

GBP Monthly and Weekly

GBP's view was for price to move upwards, but first I wanted to see Monday move down.

Monday had to find support around the Weekly 50% level, and then we would look to trade longs on Tuesday.

However Monday failed to hold breaking timeframe 50% level support.

Then the pattern changed:- look for a move back into the 5-day 50% level matched by the Weekly 50% level and short trade down into the Weekly lows.

Once again that didn't happen.

It finally did move back into the Weekly 50% level on Friday.

Next Week:- Short trade the Weekly 50% level down into the Weekly lows

Daily report out on Monday after 11am

16th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly breakout and expectation that the 3-day filter on Friday should push the AUD lower in this 4 hour period at least.

Obvious that if price is trading above the 3-day filter it's not going down in Friday.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Trading below the Weekly lows, but trade on the side of the blue filter...

Either down into Fridays lows,

minimise risk on Shorting above it..

3-day filter resistance.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern...

3-day filter resistance

15th Jan 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly breakout and re-test on Wednesday confirmed with the 5-day 50% level.

Pattern also helped by the 4 hour close @ 7pm (SYD time).

Thursday:- I favour a move down into Thursday's lows.

Trade on the side of the dark blue filter 3-day filter

above and the 3-day filter is resistance

EURO Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly lows still supporting price, and ideally I would like to see the Euro move back UP into the 3-day filter ;-Resistance.

Trading on the side of the blue and brown filters:- below and it's heading down into thursday's lows and a Weekly breakout.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern...

blue filter random support @ 1.4552.

Above and price is moving back towards the 3-day filter which matches the breakout from Tuesday.

3-day filter resistance.

Won't be surprise either to see the Weekly lows break on the downside either.