Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 28 FEB 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

March 50% level resistance with the view price is going down into the lows

AUD 5-day pattern

Two Probability patterns last week and both Failed.

First:- Sell the 5-day high on Monday with the expectation Tuesday should continue down from the 3-day filter, which often matches the 5-day 50% level.

Monday reversed down but Tuesday went UP.

2nd Probability pattern Wednesday’s HOOK day.

Buy the 50% levels on Wednesday and partial exit at the 3-day filter, and hold until Friday

That played out into the 3-day filter but the follow through once again didn’t play out reversing down.

The point of probability patterns is for those looking for more than short-term moves after partial exits. It’s trying to hold for a 2nd day, or in the case of a HOOK pattern into the end of the week.

Thursday and Friday there were no probability patterns other than using the levels in the market are look for 4 hour trading patterns.

Friday ended up with the sell down, which is what I was looking for on Tuesday.

Euro and Weekly

Looking for a move down into March lows

Euro 5-day pattern

Two Probability patterns last week and both Failed

First:- Sell the 5-day high on Monday with the expectation Tuesday should continue down from the 3-day filter, which often matches the 5-day 50% level.

Wasn't as precise as the AUD, reversing down from the 3-day filter.

Monday reversed down but Tuesday went UP.

2nd Probability pattern Wednesday’s HOOK day.

The 50% levels on Wednesday and the 3pm BUY, but the partial exit at the 3-day filter failed to reach unlike AUD and GBP.

Thursday and Friday there were no probability patterns other than using the levels in the market are look for 4 hour trading patterns, but remained below the Weekly 50% level on Thursday and pushded lower on Friday

GBP Monthly and Weekly

March 50% level is the trend guide and whilst below expectation price is pushing down.

GBP 5-day pattern

It started off from the previous Friday and shorting the 5-day highs.

Price moved down into the blue filter on Monday, and I knew that if it remained above that it was going back to Monday's highs.

Anyone short from Last friday, would have partial exitted on open on Monday, and ran tight stops.

But any Shorts around the 5-day highs on Monday Failed.

Tuesday was simply defined by the 3-day filter.

Wednesday's HOOK probability pattern partially played out but failed.

And Thursday and Friday there were no probability patterns other than looking for 4 hour intraday swing patterns using the levels in the 5-day pattern.

Monday's Reports out after 11am

27th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

No probability pattern but below the higher timeframe 50% levels is bearish.

trade on the side of the 3-day filter

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Trade on the side of the 5-day 50% level.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

GBP looks like it's going back into the March 50% level :- 3-day filter resistance.

Below the Blue 3-day filter and price is heading down into Friday's lows

26th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

I had two probability patterns this week on currencies....

Short the 5-day highs on Monday with the expectation that any down trend would continue from Tuesday.

Trade longs on Wednesday using the HOOK patterns with the expectation price would continue higher into Friday.

Both patterns started well but both failed the follow through.

Therefore there are no probability patterns for the next two days and into the close of the month.

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Day-trading:- Below the Weekly 50% level but above the 5-day 50% level...conflicting patterns

Trade on the side of the blue 3-day filter...

Either AUD moves back above the Weekly 50% level and continues towards Thursday's highs, as it tries to rotate back towards the March 50% level.

Bearish pattern is a failure of the Weekly 50% level and break below the 5-day 50% level.

Euro Weekly and Daily

Weekly HOOK failure and below the 5-day 50% level.

Trade on the side of the 3-day blue filter & 5-day 50%.

No probability pattern but any weakness can continue down towards the 5-day lows.

GBP Weekly and Daily

GBP 5-day low support on Wednesday could see a swing towards the 5-day 50% level on Thursday :- resistance.

Below Wednesday's lows and price is pushing down into Thursday's lows.

Random support.

25th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD part 3

Forex 23:00 AUD ,EURO, GBP

4 hour up move from 3pm up into 7pm completed the moves into the 3-day high filters in both the AUD and GBP, but Euro failed to reach.

7pm down over the next 4 hours into 11pm (EST Australian Time) and the Daily HOOK patterns are beginning to fail, as prices move below the support zones.

If there is going to be any higher moves on Forex, it will have to align late in the US timezone.

Next 4 hour period needs to settle back above support, but at this stage knowing how Weekly HOOK patterns play out, prices rarely move back below the 5-day 50% levels.

25th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD part

Forex 16:00 AUD, EURO, GBP

4 hour push down and 3pm rising up from support, hopefully by this 4 hour period into 7pm prices are trading around the 3-day filters (yellow)

Daily HOOK patterns over the Weekly 50% levels have random lengths:-

Remember back in the last week of December especially the EURO.

Currencies rallied into a higher Friday close, and the Euro didn't look back the following week

That means we expect Friday to close higher, but we don't know how high price
will go, or whether the next 3-days consolidate.

So basically if you are long:- decided to go long on Tuesday at the 5-day
50% level or went today you have a number of options.

You would hold and partial exit the Wednesday highs or the 3-day filter highs in each currency, run breakeven stops from entry or below the 5-day 50% levels and see where Friday closes.

If it breaks out of Wednesday (5-day high) then continue to hold into Friday.

This is the only conclusion I can make based on 3 different patterns...

1. Last Week of the month rotating back towards next Months 50% level

2. Daily HOOK bar over the Weekly 50% level.

3:- bounce off the 5-day 50% level the next day.

25th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

There was a change of bias in currencies based on Tuesday's price action.

With Tuesday not selling down from the 5-day 50% levels in the first hour of trading but instead moving higher, the view change from a bias to rise but any continuation upwards this week needs to be verified by Daily HOOK patterns over the Weekly 50% level.

All three spreads have HOOK patterns, therefore being the last week of the month the view now is that price is rotating towards the March 50% levels and a higher Friday close.

A Friday higher close is a random pattern:- the next 3 days can just continue to trend upwards, or remain in a range bound sideways pattern until the end of this week, and then continue lower from the March 50% level.

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

The most robust pattern would be for price to come back and retest the 5-day 50% level and continue upwards.

Being HOOK pattern, price can continue upwards from the Weekly 50% level wtihout retesting the 5-day 50% level.

if that occurs there needs to be a breakout out of Wednesday's 5-day highs, and then there is a good reason to think that AUD will trend upwards into Friday:- especially above the monthly 50% level @ 65.55

Consolidating trading pattern would be Wednesday's 5-day highs resisting any further gains and drifting back down into the 5-day 50% level.

Euro Weekly and Daily

HOOK pattern:- 5-day 50% level and Weekly 50% level support for a move towards Wednesday's highs.

GBP Weekly and Daily

HOOK pattern with the view to continue towards Wednesday's highs or more...

Trade on the side of the blue filter, if above it's going higher 1.4483-1.4510

24th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD part 2

3-day pattern:- AUD, EURO, GBP

In any downtrend ,especially from a higher Weekly open and a reversal back down from the 5-day highs on Monday, Tuesday would normally sell down and continue the trend down.

AUD is moving higher, GBP is moving higher and back above the Weekly 50% level, and the Euro isn't above the filter yet, but it can.

It's a bit too early to move into Longs yet, but if currencies begin to HOOK daily bars over the Weekly 50% levels, then Wednesday should continue higher.

5-day highs on Tuesday random resistance zone, but not expecting major reversals down other than 4 hour trading range patterns.

24th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

Prices rallied on Monday towards the 5-day highs.

This price action wasn’t unexpected, and both the AUD and Euro Reversed back down.

It was surprising the GBP didn’t follow the same price action, but remained above Monday’ highs far too long to trade any shorts.

As per Weekly report:- Any continuation down this week needs to continue down from Tuesday’s 3-day filter and push down towards Tuesday’s lows.



AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD reversal pattern down from Monday’s 5-day highs @ 7pm.

3-day filter and 5-day 50% level is the trend guide for Tuesday.

Whilst below the view is to move down into Tuesday’s lows and the Weekly lows.

No probability pattern to trade longs, but if it’s above 6457 then likely it won’t go down.


Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same pattern on the euro on Monday, but wasn’t as precise as the AUD, pushing higher into the 3-day filter before reversing down.

The Red channel high is the 3-day filter but offset by 1, as it seems the Euro likes this level far better than the default level (Yellow).

Same view as the Weekly report:- Sell down into Tuesday’s lows and the Weekly lows, as prices look to continue towards the February lows.

Price can either continue down from the 5-day 50% level or the Yellow Tuesday filter, which matches the Weekly 50% level.



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Tuesday's open aligns with Tuesday's 3-day filter and Weekly 50% level, and I can only think GBP will continue lower based on the Price action, even though it was very erratic compared to the others.

No probability pattern of going higher:- but limit shorting above the Weekly 50% level and 3-day filter.

23rd Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation of lower prices, with the most robust sell zone being the 5-day high.

At this stage price is below the 3-day filter, which can push AUD lower, therefore is a shorting level, but undertand that the AUD can push upwards towards Monday highs.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Trading below Friday's highs... and if Short from those levels we want to see price continue down into the 5-day 50% level.

Monday's intra-day trend guide is 1.2809, if it's below that we can relax...

Above that and there can be a push higher into Monday's highs.

Hopefully it won't do that and continue down from the Weekly 50% level.

Position traders would want to manage any shorts by partial exitting around the 5-day 50% level and hold with tight stops.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

If short from Friday's 5-day highs, I would partial exit at this level or run tight stops above the blue filter.

Above 1.4387 and price can kick upwards towards MONDAY'S HIGHS.

Partial exit would be around the 5-day 50% level.

any further downside probably won't occur until Tuesday:- 3-day filter sell zone.

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 21 FEB 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Expecting more weakness in the AUD last week:- February lows.

Expected resistance Monthly and Weekly 50% levels for a push lower next week.

AUD 3-day pattern

With Tuesday's breakout and then the retest of the break on Wednesday, I thought that the AUD would continue to drive down towards the February lows

Once Wednesday failed to continue down a reversal pattern upwards began resulting in a choppy trading week.

Day traders simply had to define the trend by the 5-day 50% levels.

As pointed out last week:- for position traders the ideal pattern to enter shorts would be around the 5-day highs.

We have 1 week to go, the 5-day highs match the higher timeframe 50% levels, with the expectation price is moving down.

Note: currencies are heavily influenced by US Index markets during the same timezone.

If Indexes go higher then currencies often follow.

If Index markets are reversing upwards from February lows towards the March 50% level, then currencies might not continue down into the February lows.

But we won't know that until it happens, which is a 5-day high breakout (Monday's highs) and trading above the timeframe 50% levels.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As has been the case this month, the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide.

Next Week the expectation remains to continue down towards February's lows

Euro 5-day pattern

Choppy trading week, with no ideal 'short' set-ups to trade.

Even Tuesday's breakout didn't retest the break before continuing down into Wednesday's lows.

The only ideal set-up was Wednesday's reversal upwards into the 3-day filter.

As pointed out in Friday's Report:- ideal short set-up for position traders would be to see the Euro rally into the 5-day highs and take a short @ 1.2820

If the Euro is going to continue down it should move lower from the Weekly 50% level on Monday and back into the 5-day 50%.

Hopefully the 5-day 50% level doesn't hold,(moves towards Monday's highs) but breaks lower on Tuesday.

It wouldn't surprise me to see the Euro push UP towards Monday's 5-day highs, but things won't look like they are heading down in the last week of February if Monday's 5-day highs break.

A lot of that will depend on US index markets and the price action around their February lows.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Weekly 50% level capped the market for most of the week, but failed to move lower as part of the push down into February's lows....

Next Week:- Weekly 50% level the trend guide

GBP 3-day pattern

As pointed out:- 5-day high the most robust level to enter position shorts.

They were reached on Friday.

Ideally pattern is for Monday to continue down from the Weekly 50% level and Friday's highs and break the 5-day 50% level, which could take 2-days for that to occur.

That being helped by a lower 3-day filter on Tuesday.

Note:- there is a possibility that GBP pushes higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs and 3-day filter, as was the case in the highs in February.

Any position shorts and I would take profits around the Weekly lows, and then look for another set-up later.

Daily report out on Monday after 11am

20th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Currencies kicked up on Thursday rising above their 3-day blue filter and back towards the 3-day highs.

Price didn’t move down low enough on Thursday to trade longs upwards.

The same level on Friday along with the 5-day 50% level is the trend guide.

No probability on Direction.

The ideal Short-trade for position traders is the 5-day high @ 6545 which goes close to matching the monthly 50% level.

Day traders adjust to the market either side of the 5-day 50% level.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Long set-up aligned with the Euro looking for a move towards the 3-day filter.

If the Euro is going to follow the down trend again it should be pushing down from the 5-day 50% level and trading below the Weekly lows.

Day traders adjust to either side of the 5-day 50% level.

Position traders ideal set-up would be to see a rally into the 5-day high @ 1.2820 on Friday stall, and hopefully the market continues down next week.




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Fake break on GBP, and imo it should sell off from the 3-day filter and continue down towards Friday’s lows.

Note:- if trading above the 3-day filter and Weekly 50% level, price could continue towards the Friday highs (5-day).

Ideal short-trade set-up for position traders around the 5-day highs.

In conclusion:- Expectation prices are moving down into February lows, and I can't get bullish on currenices along with Indexes until those lows have been reached.

Weekly Report out tomorrow

19th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Above the blue filter and price is moving back towards the 3-day high filter and 5-day 50% level.

I'm still bearish.....

don't short trade above the 3-day filter, which matches the 5-day 50% level.

Below .6373 and price expectation is down into Thursday's lows

Euro weekly and 3-day pattern

Same as the AUD:- blue filter trend guide

3-day filter resistance.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level resistance, but I wouldn't go long on GBP unless verified with a daily HOOK pattern.

Bullish pattern would be to be trading above the 3-day highs and 5-day 50% level, that could see a move towards the 5-day highs

• All Daily forex reports are written before 9.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately 3 hours before Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

18th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD weekly and 3-day pattern

All global equity and currency markets are looking to push down towards their February lows.

Breakout of the 5-day lows and expectation that price move continue down on Wednesday.

5-day 50% level and blue filter resistance.

No guarrentee that Wednesday's 5-day lows will hold


Euro Weekly and 3-day

As expectation as the AUD

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

3-day filter trend guide...

GBP looks far more supported than the others, but the bias is to continue down.

If GBP is trading above the 5-day 50% level, which is also above the 3-day break and Weekly 50% level, then there is a bias to move upwards.

17th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Flat trading on Monday day with the public holiday in the US.

3-day filter is random resistance, but based on the price action so far it's not a higher probability pattern.

The 5-day 50% level could push the market lower, but with the lower weekly open the ideal pattern would be to see currencies move up towards their 5-day highs and then enter shorts around those levels @ .6638

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

No probability pattern to trade the Euro on Tuesday, but whilst it's above the blue filter then price should rise back into the 3-day filter.

The 3-day filter is random resistance over a single 4 hour period.....

But as pointed out in the AUD thread, it would best to short trade the Euro around the 5-day highs:- green channel tops.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Is that a Weekly HOOK pattern, or about to begin a Weekly rejection pattern from a higher Daily open....

That is simply going to be defined by the 3-day filter.

A weekly HOOK pattern would be a move above the 3-day filter and expectation price is heading towards the 5-day highs.

A rejection pattern would need to be trading below the 3-day blue filter @ 1.4220, which makes it hard to favour the rejection pattern on Tuesday at this stage other than a 4 hour push down into 1.4220

16th Feb 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD Daily

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Lower open and below the Weekly and Monthly 50% levels, with the expectation that price is trying to continue down into the February lows.

Not an easy trading day but if looking to short then it has to be the 5-day 50% level.

However, as pointed out in the book, whenever the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level, these days often result in an up move and higher close.

A higher close could see the AUD move back into the Weekly 50% level and Monday’s highs @ 6633 and stall.

But it could also see a move towards the 5-day highs, but that will only occur during US timezone.

In conclusion:- the trend is down and below the 5-day 50% level, therefore there is an expectation that prices should continue down.

However, as pointed out, if it’s above the 3-day filter during GMT trading then I’d watch to see if any higher prices occur with a breakout of .6633



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

There is no probability pattern on the Euro….

3-day filter random resistance.

5-day lows @ 1.2685 random support.


GBP Weekly & 3-day pattern

Weekly 50% level trend guide along with the 3-day filter as resistance.

Random support the 5-day lows @ 1.4042.

Keep in mind the position of the 3-day filter and the 5-day 50% level (below).

don't short trade above the 3-day filter.

Weekly Reports AUD, GBP, Eur 14 FEB 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

After last Week's rally I wasn't convinced that currencies against the USD would continue upwards.

Even though some were trading above their Monthly 50% levels, the failure to double bottom around the Monthly lows in February means there is a lack of probability that prices will move higher.

Last Week was about shorting the Higher Weekly open using the Weekly 50% level is a trend guide, with the view of price come back down into the February 50% level.

And the Weekly 50% level will be the trend guide for next week.

I'm still bearish on the AUD down into February's lows.

But there could be a Weekly 5-day rotation pattern that closes higher:- Monthly 50% level support, Weekly 50% level support, and lower Weekly open.

At this stage I would need some verifying patterns to confirm the latter, otherwise we still need to trade on the short side.

AUD 3-day pattern

The Weekly 50% level was the trend guide, and Monday provide a short trade but no follow through on the downside.

Tuesday ended up more ideal, because the 3-day filter along with the Weekly 50% level provided the short-set-up to continuation down with the break of the 5-day 50% level.

But what made it even more valid was the S&P's drop on Tuesday, sending all Index markets lower and the majority of currencies lower.

There is only 1 or 2 probability patterns per week, and Tuesday's trading was it.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

Last week's up move was verified by the Daily HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level, but I was still looking for a reversal back down.

And once below the Monthly 50% level along with a higher Weekly open, Tuesday provided the ideal set-up.

Next Week:- expectation of lower prices into February's lows, but the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide


GBP 3-day pattern

Monday pushed higher hitting the 3-day filter, and Tuesday followed with another short-set-up and sell-off down into Wednesday's lows:- 2-day pattern.

Besides Friday's late spike above the 3-day filter and failure, there was nothing to suggest higher prices on Friday compared to last week.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

Still expecting lower prices into February's lows, and the Weekly 50% level is the trend guide.

Last Week the Euro was choppy and not providing any ideal set-ups for day traders.

Even though the Weekly 50% level resisted price and the trend is down, compared to the AUD & GBP is wasn't a good spread to be trading compared to the others.

Euro just didn't have the same higher Weekly open as last week to drive a large trend down, unlike AUD and GBP.

And next week the Euro looks much the same as the past 2 weeks....Choppy

The best trades on the Euro look like shorting the 5-day high and holding.

Daily Reports out on Monday after 11am