1st MAY 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Wednesday high breakout pushed the AUD up into Thursday’s highs and Weekly highs.

It was the same pattern as in US index markets.

At this stage I don’t know whether Friday will continue higher or pullback into the Monthly balance point.

At this stage I would treat the AUD as following the 5-day pattern higher.

Random support the 5-day 50% level.




Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

I’m expecting higher prices on the Euro with Thursday’s trading.

Even though Wednesday’s UP move was unexpected, the rotation down into the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level should hopefully continue to Friday’s highs.

This should be helped by price rising up from the Monthly balance point.

However, I did expect Thursday to actually close much higher after testing the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter.

Nothing is guaranteed, limit longs below the 5-day 50% level.

The Euro is still trading below the Quarterly balance point, which might have something to do with price not rising higher on Thursday.



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Trade on the side of Friday's levels, and at this stage I'm looking for price to continue towards Friday's highs.

Limit longs below the 5-day 50% level.

• All Daily forex reports are written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

30th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern….

I wasn’t expecting such a drive upwards on Wednesday because of the position of the Weekly 50% levels but more importantly the 3-day filters.

Usually I’ll get an alert of higher prices when the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level providing a better set-up to trade longs

With these moves on Wednesday there is now an expectation of higher prices in MAY, as long as price remains above the MAY balance points. (.7143)

As per last Week’s Weekly report, I was hoping to some consolidation early this week and use the monthly balance point as a level to trade longs from.

Therefore there is no probability pattern on Thursday.

Hopefully price can still come back down into this level before price moves towards the MAY highs.

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern.

I certainly wasn’t expecting the Euro to rally like it did.

Simply because the 3-day filter was above the 5-day 50% level.

The Euro is trading in the middle of the Weekly 50% levels and already around the 5-day highs:- Higher Daily open.

But if the Euro is going to continue higher then it should find support 4-hour support around the 3-day filter highs (red Support) and move towards Thursday’s highs.

The Euro is going to give far better clues by Thursday’s close and trading either side of the Monthly balance point.

But there is nothing to suggest that the Euro won’t move up towards the Weekly highs this week.

Trend guide the 3-day filter.

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

GBP already trading around the 5-day highs...

Ideally I would like to see GBP move down into support ( lower Daily close)...

And use the Support levels and trading the move UP towards the MAY highs.

• All Daily forex reports have been written before 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

29th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern….

AUD looks range bound and consolidation into the end of this month.

Wednesday:- 5-day 50% level random resistance and probably another consolidating trading day



Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

In any Weekly trend the 5-day 50% level is used as part of the continuation of the trend.

If it fails then the same level is used again the very next day.

The 5-day 50% level failed on Tuesday, and Tuesday has moved into a higher daily close…

At this stage I can’t see higher prices on the euro because the 3-day filter it still above the 5-day 50% level.

In that case:- 5-day 50% level and higher Daily open is viewed as resistance for a continuation down into Wednesday’s lows.



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

Consolidating around the midpoints.

No probability pattern until the end of the Month (Thursday)

28th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

Higher Weekly open and expectation price is moving back towards the MAY 50% levels.

There was 4 hour support around the 5-day 50% level on Monday, but a late break.

At this stage my view is to continue to trade on the short-side below the 5-day 50% level and 5-day 50% level @ .7108

Weekly lows random support

Euro Weekly and 5-day pattern

Expecting more weakness as per Weekly SELL pattern

5-day 50% level resistance

Weekly lows Random support

GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern

no probability pattern on GBP, other than using the 3-day filter (yellow as a trend guide)

As per my Weekly report of price consolidating into the end of the Trading month of April.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

27th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

Higher Weekly opens and expectation of a 3-day consolidation pattern until the start of MAY.

There has been lower opens on Currencies and US Index markets in Sunday's trading.

The 5-day 50% level is a random support guide, which could provide some intra-day support using a 4 hour low period, but personally trading longs would be more ideal from the start of the next Month.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

I'm bearish on the Euro, as per Weekly report....

And today's lower open and selling below the Weekly 50% level & April 50% level at this stage is playing out.

5-day 50% level random support, but not keen trading longs on the euro




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Higher Weekly open and same expectation as AUD, at this stage.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 25 Apr 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly

Currencies followed the same patterns as probably most things this week, down early in the week and into support, and then a late move upwards on Friday after a number of days consolidating around support.

There are still a few days to go until the end of this month, but with April highs (resistance) disappearing and shifting higher in MAY, AUD looks like it's going to push upwards in MAY.

With the Higher Weekly open I would look for a 3-day consolidating pattern until MAY begins and then look for the next BUY set-up from then.

AUD 5-day pattern

Monday started with the SELL down into the 5-day lows, which was part of the set-up (sell the 3-day filter)

Monday lows didn't hold , resulting in a 5-day breakout.

With price trading around the 5-week 50% levels there was an expectation price would swing up and retest the 5-day break and then continue down.

In any down-trending pattern, price should have sold off on Wednesday and moved down into the lows, as part of the April high reversal down, the 5-day retest and reject pattern, and then the 5-day 50% level SELL.

That didn't happen, resulting in a reversal breakout on Thursday back above the 3-day filter and continuation higher on Friday.

At this stage next week's 3-day filter will be viewed as early resistance

EURO Monthly and Weekly

The previous Week the Euro closed below the Monthly 50% levels.

This is extremely bearish. But my expectation was that price would need to come back and retest the break or Weekly 50% levels before the trend could continue down.

Price did that, pushing up from the Weekly lows and slightly higher than expected on Friday.

Look at the Chart above and what conclusion can you make of the Price action?

The only conclusion I can make is.....

Higher Weekly open after a retest of the 50% levels should become a higher probability SHORT-TRADE early next week

The Euro should sell off from the Weekly 50% levels and Monthly 50% level and continue to trend down all Week.

The only way I could see the Euro actually moving higher would be for the Euro to reverse down 3-days into the MAY 50% level, and then kick upwards from Support:- MAY 50% levels.

But I'll come to that from Thursday next week.

Euro 3-day pattern

The upmove began with the break of the 3-day filter and rise up into the 5-day highs.

I did expect the Euro to reverse back down into the 3-day filter on Friday from resistance, but it continued up (stopped out) into a higher Friday close

Next Week:- simply trade on the side of the 3-day filter (red)

It's higher then I'll be shorting it, because it fits in with my view of the larger timeframes. GBP monthly and Weekly

GBP sold off on Monday into the Monthly 50% levels, and followed the same breakout pattern on Thursday and push higher on Friday.

At this stage while GBP is trading above the Monthly 50% level the bias is to move higher.

But I'm going to treat GBP like the AUD...

Look at the market from the start of the next month on the 1st of MAY.

• All Daily forex reports are written after 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

24th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Expectation of further weakness down finally failed with a cross-over of the 3-day filter.

3-day filter is the trend guide on Friday, but I won’t have a probability pattern until this week ends and next week begins.

Simple because the AUD can continue higher or follow a consolidating Weekly pattern of daily bars that close in the opposite direction of each other :- lower Daily close.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Yesterday’s set-up was to trade longs above the 3-day filter (below the 5-day 50% level), but once above the 5-day 50% level it completed the move into the 5-day highs and stalling.

Around these levels I have major resistance, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see a higher close on Friday back into the Weekly 50% levels.

But the only way I would trade that would be for the Euro to makes its way back down into the 3-day filter on Friday:- rnadom support.



GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

GBP had reached the April 50% level so there was an expectation that price would reverse upwards…

But that could be confirmed until there was a move above the 5-day 50% level.

If GBP is going to continue higher then price should remain above the 5-day 50% level, but the next probability pattern won’t be until next week begins.

Simply because it's a higher daily close and trading around the Weekly 50% level could result in a down day.

That's been the pattern this week:- daily closes in the opposite direction of the open.

23rd April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.


I bearish on the AUD with the expectation of a move down into the monthly 50% levels.
Currently trading below the 3-week 50% level and also the 5-day 50% level, which aligns with the break of Monday’s lows.

The only conclusion is a continued down move below into Thursday’s lows(and more)

A similar pattern as GBP (read Below)

Limit shorts above the 3-day filter


EUR Weekly and 3-day pattern

All this week I’ve been looking for a move back towards the Weekly 50% level (monthly @ 1.3150.

But it wasn’t until the 3-day filter had dropped below the 5-day 50% level that buyers appeared.

Wednesday stalled around the 5-day 50% level.

The only play I can see on Thursday is a push down into the 3-day filter confirmed with a 4 hour low, and then hopefully a continuation upwards into the 5-day highs or 1.3150

Limit longs below the 3-day filter as the set-up has failed and could result into a break on the downside.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Same pattern as AUD, retest the Monday breakout of the 5-day lows and 3-day filter highs, and sell down into the 5-day lows again.

This completes the move back into the Monthly 50% level,which are viewed as strong support, until it breaks.

At this stage expectation is to continue down into Thursday’s lows (random support), but any break above the 5-day 50% level and 3-day filter on Thursday is part of the Monthly 50% level support

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

22nd April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD moved higher as US markets rallied, which often puts pressure on the USD.

AUD has moved back and retested the 5-day breakout on Monday along with the 3-day filter.

The only conclusion I can see is price continuing down from the Weekly 50% level and the 5-day 50% level.

Don’t short trade above the 3-day filter.



Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

As pointed in yesterday’s report, I’m bearish on the Euro but I would like a swing up into the 3-day filter to take a short trade down.

That would have been ideal if the Euro rallied on Tuesday.

Now the 3-day filter has dropped to 1.3001.

But whenever the 3-day filter drops below the 5-day 50% level, there is actually more chance that price can breakout during the US timezone and continue back towards the 5-day highs.

Trade on the side of the 3-day filter




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

GBP has risen up like the AUD and has retested Monday’s breakout and the 5-day 50% level and stalled.

If price is going to continue down then it should sell down from the 3-day filter.

However, this could also be a HOOK pattern over the Weekly 50% level.

If it’s a HOOK pattern then it’s going to find support around 1.4657 and it will need to break the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level.

Trade on the side of 1.4660

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

21st April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.


AUD continuing down into the April 50% level and Weekly lows.

The sell-off started with the 3-day filter and confirmed with the 5-day low breakout on Monday.

Normally price moves back into the 5-day break and 5-day 50% level and then continues down, but I’d be surprise to see price above the Weekly 50% level @ .7028 without hitting the 5-day lows first.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Friday’s close is bearish on the Euro with the expectation price is moving down.

This has pushed the Euro down into the Weekly lows and the 5-day lows, and could easily continue down on Tuesday.

I would still like to find an ideal ‘short & hold’ set-up, and that won’t occur unless price is trading around the 3-day filter (red).

No probability pattern on Tuesday:- trend guide Yellow filter

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Had the same view of a push down on Monday, but the set-up didn’t play out with a move into the 3-day filter.

We have the same view as the AUD of a 5-day breakout and push down into April 50% level.

Blue filter trend guide @ 1.4599

Resistance the 5-day 50% level and the breakout on Monday @ 1/4675

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

20th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

April highs resistance and looking for a move down towards the Weekly 50% level.

The trend guide is the 5-day 50% level on any further weakness, but I would still use the 3-day filter to short trade price down.

Limit shorting above the 3-day filter.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

Friday’s close is bearish on the Euro with the expectation price is moving down.

However I would like to see a 2-day up move back towards the Weekly 50% levels before the trend continues down.

But I’m not sure if Monday is the day that price will swing upwards, simply because it’s trading below Friday’s 5-day lows

Random support Weekly lows

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation of GBP moving back towards the Weekly 50% levels this week, but Monday is a lower Daily open which can continue back towards the 3-day filter.

Random support 1.4747

Below Monday’s lows and it’s a lower Daily close towards the Weekly 50% level.

But there isn’t a ‘short’ set-up to trade unless price has moved back towards the 3-day filter and stalled around a 4 hour ‘top’.


3-day filter random resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

Weekly Reports AUD, EUR, GBP 18 Apr 09

AUD Monthly and Weekly...

April highs reached and now the expectation is a pullback into the Monthly 50% level.

But that won't happend unless price is trading below the Weekly 50% level.

My strategy remains that the 3-day filter is the best level to trade shorts from on any given day.

Euro Monthly and Weekly

As already explained, this week I expected Monday's rally but then for Tuesday to continue higher.

Once Tuesday failed to remain above the 5-day 50% level the rest of the Week struggled, resulting in Friday's sell off.

Now Euro is trading below monthly 50% levels therefore the bias is to continue down.

However, I would like to see a move up from lows next week to retest the Weekly 50% level before any down trend continues.

Daily report on Monday but I would look for a push down into the 5-day lows and then look for a 2-3 day UP move into the Weekly/Monthly 50% levels.

GBP Monthly and Weekly

The Trend is still up and can continue higher.

At this stage I'll still be looking for 'support-BUY ' patterns at thsi stage...

And if a 3-day filter comes along from a higher Daily open I'll short it.

Simply because if other currencies are going lower, then GBP can easily follow the same trend.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

17th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

These reports are written @ 9:15am, the levels won't be confirmed until 11:00am



AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Monthly highs resistance and Thursday’s sell-off.

There is still the expectation that price is moving back towards the Weekly 50% level.

If that’s the expectation then price should continue down from the 5-day 50% level into Friday’s lows.




Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

The Euro has been extremely disappointing this week.

Monday’s rally was spot on, but Tuesday should have continued higher.

Once the 5-day 50% level failed to continue higher on Tuesday, price has just moved into a Weekly consolidation pattern.

There is still a lot of support around 1.3150, but…

For the day trader there is No probability pattern on Friday




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Expectation of higher prices on Thursday didn’t play out with the 5-day break out from Wednesday.

The 4 hour low @ 1.4984 failed to hold.

No probability pattern for Friday.

However, the 3-day low @ is a random support zone, that needs to be verified with a 4 hour low

If price pushes down early on Friday, it could swing back towards 1.4966 and as high as the 3-day filter.

3-day filter random resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th April 2009 AUD, part 2

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD selling down from the April and Weekly highs along with the 3-day filter.

The 4 hour pattern is breaking the 5-day 50% level....

In my opinion this short is a hold down towards the 5-day lows @ .7173

and it could even break, as it goes looking for the Weekly 50% level.

Once partial exit around the 5-day 50% level @ 7265 hold with stops above today's highs

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

16th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD moved back up into Weekly highs, but I expected the 3-day filter to resistance any rises on Wednesday….

Thursday

3-day filter along with the April highs are the trend guides on Thursday.

no probability for price to continue higher, as price is trading around resistance, but if it's above the filter it can go higher

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

No probability pattern on Wednesday sent price back down into 1.3150 once again

Currently there is robust support around this level.

If there are going to be any higher moves on the Euro after Wednesday’s support, then it should be trading above the 5-day 50% level once again.

I’m not expecting any major upside move, but a move back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3327

Max move is back towards the 3-day filter high @ 1.3391



GBP Weekly and 5-day pattern


Expectation GBP would push up into the Weekly highs played out and stalled for most of the trading day until a late push higher in the last 4 hours of trading.


With Wednesday’s close above the 5-day highs I now view GBP following the pattern higher on Thursday and probably continue towards April's highs into Friday.

Simply trade on the side of the blue filter @ 1.4982...

3-day filter on Thursday random resistance.

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

15th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD reversing down from April highs and Weekly highs with the expectation that price should continue down towards the Weekly 50% level.

Either AUD continues down from the 5-day 50% level...

or the 5-day 50% level pushes price upwards into the 3-day filter and then continues down.

Euro Weekly and 3-day pattern

The Up trend should have bounced off the 5-day 50% level on Tuesday with a 4 hour low and then continued upwards in the next 4 hour perid and not break lower...

This aligned with the Weekly 50% level and continuation higher

At this stage the Euro is an each way bet around the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday.

Because Yesterday's failure to continue higher I don't have a view on the direction on Wednesday.

GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern

Resistance around the highs on Tuesday, but no follow through on the downside into the 5-day 50% level.

I still have the view that the move down should play out, but it looks like Wednesday could push up into the Weekly highs...

Weekly highs random resistance @ 1.4995

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT

14th April 2009 AUD, EUR, GBP/USD

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern.

AUD continued higher this week, as did most currencies against the greenback, but there wasn’t an ideal ‘long’ trade set-up to trade on Monday

Once above the 3-day filter price continued higher hitting April’s highs on Monday

There isn’t any ideal long set-up to trade unless there is a pullback, especially around the April highs.

Today:- 3-day filter yellow the trend guide, and if trading below .7272 hopefully it can slip back towards the 5-day 50% level and more.

I’m still looking for a pullback into the Weekly 50% level.




Euro Weekly 3-day pattern

Euro move down into the monthly balance point and found support along with the Weekly 50% level @ 1.3150

But Monday was all about the 3-day filter @ 1.3185.

Once above that price rallied to the 5-day highs. (first time in over 1 week a 3-day filter cross-over).

Today:- If Euro is going to continue higher then the 5-day 50% level should support price for a move towards Tuesday’s highs.




GBP Weekly and 3-day pattern.

Last Week GBP found support and a lower Weekly open favoured a higher move this week.

And it wasn’t until price moved above the 3-day filter and 5-day 50% level saw a breakout of the 5-day highs.

Today:- Ideal pattern on GBP before it continues higher is to see a pullback into the 5-day 50% level.

5-day 50% level support to move towards the 3-day filter highs.

If GBP moves higher into the 3-day filter, then I would look for a pullback into the 5-day 50% level (lower Daily close)

• All Daily forex reports are written aftr 11.00am Sydney Time, which is approximately Midnight GMT

Exact levels shown for current day aren't confirmed until midnight GMT